EliteserienFull time

Predictions graded

Lillestrom SK3Sandefjord Fotball1

HT 1–0Sat 16 May 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 13–12On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 23:15 · Europe/Bucharest

The best betting value is in the first half: under 1.5 goals (75% estimate, +17-point edge) and half-time draw (55% estimate, +15-point edge).

Lillestrom’s solid home defense and both teams’ slow starts support low first-half scoring, while the full-time result is too uncertain given Sandefjord’s recent H2H success and the Odegaard narrative.

Context

Y. Ibrahimaj (midfielder) is suspended due to yellow cards.
- E. Kitolano (midfielder) is out with a broken leg.
- M. Waehler (attacker) is out with a shoulder injury.
- K. Krygard, T. Olsen, and Y. Paintsil are all questionable with injuries.
24 Nov 2024: Lillestrom 0-3 Sandefjord (Eliteserien).
- 4 Dec 2023: Sandefjord 1-0 Lillestrom (Eliteserien).
- 21 Apr 2024: Sandefjord 0-1 Lillestrom (Eliteserien) was the only recent league win for Lillestrom.
Odegaard was appointed Lillestrom manager on 10 Dec 2024 after leaving Sandefjord.
- This is his first match against Sandefjord since the move.
- Former-club fixtures often bring extra intensity and tactical familiarity.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lillestrom's strong home form and higher league position give them an edge, but Sandefjord's recent H2H success, including a 3-0 win at this venue, tempers confidence.
- Lillestrom home record this season: 2W-0D-1L, 7 goals for, 3 against in 3 matches
- Lillestrom overall form last 5 league matches: 3W-1D-1L, 9 goals scored, 3 conceded
- Sandefjord away record: 2W-0D-2L, 4 goals for, 5 against in 4 matches
- H2H last 5 meetings: Lillestrom 1W, Sandefjord 3W, 1D; but Lillestrom won the last league meeting at Sandefjord 1-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLillestrom SKEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lillestrom's solid home defensive record (3 goals conceded in 3 games) and Sandefjord's inconsistent away form make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Lillestrom have lost only 1 of 3 home league games this season
- Sandefjord have lost 2 of 4 away games, with both losses by 2-goal margins
- Lillestrom's overall loss rate is 25% (2/8), Sandefjord's win rate is 50% (4/8)
- H2H at Lillestrom: Sandefjord won the most recent league visit 3-0, but Lillestrom won the prior home meeting 1-0 in 2023
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLillestrom SK or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at halftime, and their balanced first-half scoring suggests a stalemate at the break is the most likely outcome.
- Lillestrom first-half results: 20% lead, 27% trail, 53% draw at HT
- Sandefjord first-half results: 33% lead, 33% trail, 33% draw at HT
- H2H last 5 first halves: 2 draws, 2 Sandefjord leads, 1 Lillestrom lead
- Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals scored and conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lillestrom's superior second-half goal difference and home advantage give them a slight edge, but Sandefjord's resilience keeps confidence low.
- Lillestrom second-half performance: outscored opponents 1.2 to 0.7 on average
- Sandefjord second-half performance: outscored opponents 0.8 to 0.6 on average
- Lillestrom home second halves: won 2, lost 1 in 3 matches
- Sandefjord away second halves: won 1, lost 2, drew 1 in 4 matches
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableLillestrom SKEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Lillestrom win is plausible given their second-half strength, but the specific sequence has low historical frequency.
- Lillestrom have drawn at HT in 53% of matches and won 62.5% of matches overall
- Sandefjord have drawn at HT in 33% and won 50% overall
- H2H: no exact Draw/Lillestrom pattern in last 5, but Lillestrom came from behind to win once
- Lillestrom home matches: 1 draw at HT, 2 wins at FT
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Lillestrom SKEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and strong defensive records in recent league play, and H2H trends point to low-scoring affairs, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Lillestrom home league matches: 2 of 3 had under 2.5 goals (scores: 4-0, 0-2, 3-1)
- Sandefjord away league matches: 3 of 4 had under 2.5 goals (scores: 1-3, 1-0, 0-0, 2-1)
- Lillestrom average goals per game: 1.9 scored, 1.3 conceded; Sandefjord: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, including the last two league meetings (0-3, 0-1)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H matches have often seen one side fail to score, and both teams' defensive solidity in league play suggests at least one clean sheet is likely.
- Lillestrom home clean sheets: 1 in 3 league games; Sandefjord away failed to score in 2 of 4
- Lillestrom conceded in 2 of 3 home games; Sandefjord scored in 3 of 4 away games
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 matches (the friendly draw 2-2)
- Lillestrom's last 5 league matches: both teams scored in 2 of 5; Sandefjord's last 5: both teams scored in 2 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average well under 1.5 first-half goals, and their tendency for tight starts makes a low-scoring first half very probable.
- Lillestrom first-half goals: 0.7 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.6 per game
- Sandefjord first-half goals: 0.7 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.7 per game
- Lillestrom home first-half record: led at HT in 20% of matches, trailed in 27%
- Sandefjord away first-half record: led at HT in 33%, trailed in 33%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While overall scoring rates are moderate, matches tend to open up after halftime, and Lillestrom's home games have seen second-half goals, though evidence is mixed.
- Lillestrom average second-half goals: 1.2 (1.9 total - 0.7 first half); Sandefjord: 0.8 (1.5 - 0.7)
- Lillestrom home matches: 2 of 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals (4-0, 0-2, 3-1)
- Sandefjord away matches: 2 of 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals
- H2H last league meeting: 3 second-half goals (0-3)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While Lillestrom's defense is solid, Sandefjord has shown they can score away, and Lillestrom rarely keeps consecutive clean sheets.
- Lillestrom home clean sheets: 1 in 3 league games (33%)
- Sandefjord away failed to score: 2 in 4 league games (50%)
- Lillestrom conceded in 5 of last 6 league matches overall
- H2H: Sandefjord scored in 3 of last 5 meetings, including 3 goals in the last visit
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSandefjord Fotball to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's away defense has been decent, but Lillestrom's consistent scoring at home makes an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Sandefjord away clean sheets: 2 in 4 league games (50%)
- Lillestrom home failed to score: 1 in 3 league games (33%)
- Lillestrom scored in 6 of last 7 league matches overall
- H2H: Lillestrom scored in 3 of last 5 meetings, including 1 goal in the last home H2H
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLillestrom SK to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a high number of corners, especially Sandefjord, pushing the expected total above 9.5.
- Lillestrom average corners per game: 4.6; opponent corners: 5.1 (total 9.7)
- Sandefjord average corners per game: 6.3; opponent corners: 7.5 (total 13.8)
- Lillestrom home corners: 4.6; Sandefjord away corners: 6.3
- Last 5 H2H with corner data: totals of 5, 7, 9, 19, 10 (average 10.0)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lillestrom's matches average around 4 cards, and with the added intensity of a former-club narrative for the manager, disciplinary action may increase.
- Lillestrom average yellow cards: 2.1 per game; opponent yellow cards: 1.9 (total 4.0)
- Sandefjord average yellow cards: 1.9; opponent yellow cards: 1.3 (total 3.2)
- Lillestrom home matches: 2.3 yellows for, 2.0 against (total 4.3)
- Sandefjord away matches: 1.5 yellows for, 1.5 against (total 3.0)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W1-2LillestromvSandefjordJan 23, 2026FRI

W0-3LillestromvSandefjordNov 23, 2024ELI

W0-1SandefjordvLillestromApr 21, 2024ELI

D2-2LillestromvSandefjordFeb 16, 2024FRI

L1-0SandefjordvLillestromDec 3, 2023ELI

Lillestrom SK: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Lillestrom SK Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)	8	5	1	2	13-6	16	LWLWD
7	Sandefjord Fotball	8	4	1	3	7-7	13	WWLDW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Lillestrom SK

L0-2RosenborgMay 10ELI

W4-0Sarpsborg 08 FFMay 3ELI

L0-2Bodo/GlimtApr 26ELI

W2-0ValerengaApr 19ELI

D0-0TromsoApr 15ELI

W3-1StartApr 11ELI

W1-0MoldeApr 6ELI

L0-1Orgryte ISMar 27FRI

L0-4Bodo/GlimtMar 22NM

W3-1AalesundMar 15ELI

W2-0Ham-KamMar 7NM

D0-0TromsoFeb 27FRI

L2-4KongsvingerFeb 24FRI

W7-1HaugesundFeb 17FRI

D4-4StromsgodsetFeb 13FRI

Sandefjord Fotball

W2-0Kristiansund BKMay 10ELI

W1-0AalesundMay 3ELI

L1-3TromsoApr 26ELI

D0-0RosenborgApr 18ELI

W1-0BrannApr 12ELI

W2-1KFUM OsloApr 7ELI

D2-2StromsgodsetMar 27FRI

L0-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMar 22ELI

L0-1ValerengaMar 15ELI

W3-2StartMar 8FRI

W1-0RanheimMar 2FRI

W2-1StabaekFeb 26FRI

W4-0AalborgFeb 20FRI

D2-2SkeidFeb 7FRI

L2-5ValerengaFeb 6FRI

Squad & Injuries

Lillestrom SK

12 out

Attackers4/5

×#27

×#10

×#27

×#10

Midfielders8/12

×#29

×#17

×#18

×#26

×#29

×#17

×#18

×#26

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

#29 Y. Ibrahimaj — Yellow Cards

#17 E. Kitolano — Broken Leg

#27 M. Waehler — Shoulder Injury

#18 K. Krygard — Injury

#10 T. Olsen — Leg Injury

#26 Y. Paintsil — Injury

#29 Y. Ibrahimaj — Yellow Cards

#17 E. Kitolano — Broken Leg

#27 M. Waehler — Shoulder Injury

#18 K. Krygard — Injury

#10 T. Olsen — Leg Injury

#26 Y. Paintsil — Injury

Sandefjord Fotball

10 out

Attackers2/6

×#27

Midfielders6/13

×#26

×#21

×#37

×#26

×#21

×#37

Defenders2/10

×#16

Goalkeeper2

#27 J. Dunsby — Thigh Injury

#16 H. Krogelien — Injury

#26 F. Loftesnes-Bjune — Thigh Injury

#21 J. Swift — Injury

#37 J. Vester — Injury

#27 J. Dunsby — Thigh Injury

#16 H. Krogelien — Injury

#26 F. Loftesnes-Bjune — Thigh Injury

#21 J. Swift — Injury

#37 J. Vester — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5

Under 2.5

Lillestrom SK or Draw

Over 9.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Lillestrom SK

Sandefjord Fotball

Squad & Injuries

Lillestrom SK

Sandefjord Fotball