Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

DC United1St Louis City1

HT 0–0Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 15–16On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 5–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 20:57 · Europe/Bucharest

A volatile matchup between a DC United side in coaching transition and a St Louis City team poor on the road.

Goals are likely with both teams scoring, but the standout betting edge is Over 4.5 cards at 5.00—our model gives it a 60% chance versus an implied 20%. Avoid match winner and high goal lines due to uncertainty and low scoring trends.

Context

Official club releases confirm Lesesne's departure and the promotion of Dave Kasper alongside Lucy Rushton in soccer operations.
- The change comes mid-season, leaving the team without its established head coach for this match.
DC United have conceded 11 goals in 5 home MLS matches, failing to keep a single clean sheet.
- They have conceded in 12 of 13 overall MLS matches this season.
St Louis City have scored 4 goals in 7 away MLS matches this season.
- They have failed to score in 3 of those 7 away games.
DC United home matches average 4.6 total cards (2.4 for, 2.2 against).
- St Louis City away matches average 4.7 total cards (2.6 for, 2.1 against).
- Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game individually.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

DC United or Draw

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

DC United's home advantage and St Louis City's poor away form (1W-2D-4L) make a home win or draw the most probable outcome, though the odds offer no edge.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

DC United consistently concedes at home and St Louis City rarely keeps clean sheets away, while DC United's home scoring record and the H2H precedent suggest both teams will find the net.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

DC United to score

1.29fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

St Louis City's away defense is porous, and DC United consistently finds the net at home, making an away clean sheet improbable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

DC United tends to start games with attacking intent at home, and St Louis City's defense has been vulnerable early in recent away matches, making a first-half goal probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show inconsistent form and weak home/away splits, with DC United's poor home defense (2.2 GA per home game) and St Louis City's low away scoring (0.57 GF per away game) pointing to a stalemate, reinforced by two recent H2H draws.
- DC United home record: 2W-0D-3L (6 GF, 11 GA) in 5 home MLS matches this season
- St Louis City away record: 1W-2D-4L (4 GF, 12 GA) in 7 away MLS matches this season
- H2H: last MLS meeting ended 2-2 draw (24 Mar 2024); most recent friendly 0-0 draw (14 Feb 2026)
- DC United last 5 form: W-D-W-D-L (8 GF, 8 GA); St Louis City last 5 form: W-W-L-L-L (7 GF, 7 GA)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
DC United's home advantage and slightly better overall standing, combined with St Louis City's poor away form and recent losing streak, make a home win or draw the most likely outcome.
- DC United home record: 2W-0D-3L, but 2 wins in last 3 home matches against Orlando and Philadelphia
- St Louis City away record: 1W-2D-4L, with only 1 away win all season
- DC United overall rank 7th in East (16 pts) vs St Louis City 14th in West (12 pts)
- St Louis City lost last 3 MLS matches, conceding 9 goals
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDC United or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
DC United's recent trend of first-half scoring and St Louis City's occasional early defensive lapses give the home side a slight edge, but both teams' inconsistency makes this a low-confidence call.
- DC United led at halftime in 33% of matches overall; led in 2 of 5 home matches
- St Louis City trailed at halftime in 20% of matches overall; trailed in 2 of 7 away matches
- DC United scored first-half goals in 4 of last 5 matches
- St Louis City conceded first-half goals in 3 of last 5 MLS matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDC UnitedEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have negative second-half goal differences and tend to fade, suggesting a balanced second period, but the small sample and volatility warrant low confidence.
- DC United second-half record: 2W-2D-1L in last 5 matches
- St Louis City second-half record: 1W-1D-3L in last 5 MLS matches
- DC United home second-half goal difference: -2 (5 GF, 7 GA)
- St Louis City away second-half goal difference: -4 (3 GF, 7 GA)
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible low-probability outcome given both teams' tendency to start cautiously and lack of decisive edge, supported by recent draw patterns.
- DC United HT/FT: 2 draws at halftime in last 5 matches, both ended as draws
- St Louis City HT/FT: 3 draws at halftime in last 5 MLS matches, 2 ended as draws
- H2H: last MLS meeting was 2-2 draw (half-time score unknown but full-time draw)
- Both teams have high draw rates: DC United 4 draws in 13 matches, St Louis City 3 draws in 12 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
DC United's home games are high-scoring due to defensive frailties (2.2 GA per home game), and St Louis City's recent matches show a trend toward goals, making over 2.5 likely despite St Louis's low away scoring.
- DC United home matches average 3.4 total goals (6 GF, 11 GA in 5 games)
- St Louis City away matches average 2.3 total goals (4 GF, 12 GA in 7 games)
- DC United last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (total goals: 4,4,2,5,8)
- St Louis City last 5 MLS matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (total goals: 3,1,2,5,5)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
DC United consistently concedes at home and St Louis City rarely keeps clean sheets away, while DC United's home scoring record and the H2H precedent suggest both teams will find the net.
- DC United scored in 4 of 5 home MLS matches this season
- St Louis City conceded in 6 of 7 away MLS matches this season
- DC United conceded in all 5 home MLS matches this season
- H2H: both teams scored in the only MLS meeting (2-2 draw)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
DC United tends to start games with attacking intent at home, and St Louis City's defense has been vulnerable early in recent away matches, making a first-half goal probable.
- DC United first-half goals: 0.5 per game overall; scored in 4 of last 5 matches before halftime
- St Louis City first-half goals conceded: 0.3 per game overall, but conceded in 3 of last 5 MLS matches before halftime
- DC United home matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 games (total 5 first-half goals)
- St Louis City away matches: first-half goals conceded in 4 of 7 games
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede more in the second half, and DC United's home matches often open up after the break, but St Louis City's low away scoring introduces uncertainty, keeping confidence low.
- DC United second-half goals: 0.6 per game overall; 4 of last 5 matches had second-half goals
- St Louis City second-half goals conceded: 1.2 per game overall; conceded in second half of last 4 MLS matches
- DC United home matches: second-half total goals average 2.0 (10 goals in 5 games)
- St Louis City away matches: second-half total goals average 1.4 (10 goals in 7 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
DC United's defense is highly unreliable at home, failing to keep a single clean sheet, and St Louis City has enough attacking threat to score, making a home clean sheet very unlikely.
- DC United conceded in all 5 home MLS matches this season (11 goals against)
- DC United conceded in 12 of 13 overall MLS matches this season
- St Louis City scored in 4 of 7 away MLS matches this season
- DC United home clean sheets: 0 in 5 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Louis City to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's away defense is porous, and DC United consistently finds the net at home, making an away clean sheet improbable.
- St Louis City kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 away MLS matches this season
- St Louis City conceded in 10 of 12 overall MLS matches this season
- DC United scored in 4 of 5 home MLS matches this season
- DC United failed to score in only 3 of 13 overall MLS matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDC United to scoreEstimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average over 10 total corners, and the styles (DC United low possession, St Louis City moderate possession) often lead to end-to-end play, but corner data is noisy, so confidence is low.
- DC United average corners per game: 4.5; opponent corners: 6.1 (total 10.6)
- St Louis City average corners per game: 6.1; opponent corners: 5.1 (total 11.2)
- DC United home matches: average total corners 10.8 (4.4 for, 6.4 against)
- St Louis City away matches: average total corners 10.3 (5.7 for, 4.6 against)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see matches with over 4.5 cards, and the competitive nature of this mid-table clash with playoff implications should maintain disciplinary intensity.
- DC United average yellow cards: 2.2 per game; opponent yellow cards: 2.1 (total 4.3)
- St Louis City average yellow cards: 2.4 per game; opponent yellow cards: 2.0 (total 4.4)
- DC United home matches: average total cards 4.6 (2.4 for, 2.2 against)
- St Louis City away matches: average total cards 4.7 (2.6 for, 2.1 against)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 0W

D0-0St. Louis CityvDC UnitedFeb 14, 2026FRI

D2-2St. Louis CityvDC UnitedMar 24, 2024MAJ

2 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	DC United Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	13	4	4	5	16-20	16	LDWWD
14	St Louis City	12	3	3	6	12-19	12	WWLLL

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

DC United

L1-3Chicago FireMay 13MAJ

D2-2Nashville SCMay 10MAJ

W2-0New York City FCMay 3MAJ

W3-2Orlando City SCApr 25MAJ

D4-4New York Red BullsApr 22MAJ

D0-0Philadelphia UnionApr 18MAJ

L0-1New England RevolutionApr 11MAJ

L0-4FC DallasApr 4MAJ

D0-0Atlanta United FCMar 21MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireMar 15MAJ

L1-2Inter MiamiMar 7MAJ

L0-1AustinMar 1MAJ

W1-0Philadelphia UnionFeb 22MAJ

D0-0Minnesota United FCFeb 11FRI

D0-0Portland TimbersFeb 7FRI

St Louis City

W2-1Los Angeles FCMay 14MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsMay 10MAJ

L0-2AustinMay 3MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireApr 30US

L2-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 26MAJ

L1-4Seattle SoundersApr 19MAJ

W4-0FC TulsaApr 16US

D1-1FC DallasApr 12MAJ

D1-1New York City FCApr 4MAJ

W3-1New England RevolutionMar 22MAJ

L0-2Los Angeles FCMar 15MAJ

L0-1Seattle SoundersMar 8MAJ

L0-2San DiegoMar 2MAJ

D1-1CharlotteFeb 21MAJ

L0-3Los Angeles GalaxyFeb 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

DC United

4 out

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders2/8

×#13

Goalkeeper3

#13 S. Nealis — Broken collarbone

G. Segal — Leg Injury

#13 S. Nealis — Broken collarbone

G. Segal — Leg Injury

St Louis City

6 out

Attackers2/8

×#12

Midfielders4/9

×#7

×#99

×#7

×#99

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

#12 Celio Pompeu — Knee Injury

#7 T. Ostrak — Injury

#99 J. Orozco — Injury

#12 Celio Pompeu — Knee Injury

#7 T. Ostrak — Injury

#99 J. Orozco — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

St Louis City to score

Over 4.5

DC United or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

DC United to score

Over 0.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

DC United

St Louis City

Squad & Injuries

DC United

St Louis City