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Predictions graded

Cultural Leonesa2Eibar1

HT 0–0Sat 16 May 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges0–60%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 8–14On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Eibar's dominant form and Cultural's institutional chaos make an away win the standout bet at 2.30, with a 22-point edge over the implied probability.

For higher risk, the Draw/Eibar half-time/full-time at 5.25 offers a 16-point edge, reflecting Cultural's slow starts and Eibar's second-half strength. Expect a low-scoring, card-heavy affair, but the clearest value lies in backing Eibar to win.

Context

AS reported on 6 May that Cultural had gone through three coaches, with current boss Ruben de la Barrera managing just 1 win and 3 draws in his first 11 matches.
- Cultural's last-15 form is 1W-5D-9L, with only 0.7 goals scored per game and 1.7 conceded.
- The team have lost 9 of those 15, including heavy home defeats like 0-4 to FC Andorra and 0-3 to Las Palmas.
Eibar's last-15 record is 10W-3D-2L, with 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- They kept clean sheets in 7 of those 15, including away wins at Mirandes (1-0) and Albacete (3-0).
- Eibar have lost only 2 of their last 15, both to top-half sides, and have not conceded more than 1 goal in any of their last 5 away matches.
AS confirmed on 6 May that Cultural are six points from safety with four matches left, making this a must-win fixture.
- Cultural's home record is 3W-5D-11L, with 13 goals scored and 29 conceded in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of their last 15 overall, and their home attack averages just 0.68 goals per game.
Mundo Deportivo reported on 5 May that Goiria was appointed with the team bottom and four rounds left.
- The previous sporting director, José Manzanera, was dismissed in late March after a poor run.
- Such a late boardroom reset can distract from on-pitch preparation, though the direct match impact is unclear.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's strong overall form (10 wins in last 15) and Cultural's poor home record (only 3 wins all season) give Eibar a clear edge, reinforced by the motivation asymmetry where Cultural are desperate but lack quality.
- Cultural Leonesa last 15: 1W-5D-9L, goalsFor 0.7, goalsAgainst 1.7 per match
- Eibar last 15: 10W-3D-2L, goalsFor 1.5, goalsAgainst 0.7 per match
- Cultural home record: 3W-5D-11L, 13 goals scored, 29 conceded in 19 matches
- Eibar away record: 5W-6D-8L, 13 goals scored, 19 conceded in 19 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEibarEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cultural's extremely low win probability makes Eibar or Draw a very safe outcome, supported by Cultural's 1 win in 15 and Eibar's strong form.
- Cultural Leonesa have won only 1 of their last 15 matches
- Eibar have lost only 2 of their last 15 matches
- Cultural home win rate: 16% (3/19)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or EibarEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Eibar's strong first half record, Cultural's desperation at home may keep them organized early, making a draw at half time the most balanced outcome.
- Cultural Leonesa half time results: 20% leading, 40% trailing, 40% drawing in last 15
- Eibar half time results: 60% leading, 20% trailing, 20% drawing in last 15
- Cultural first half goals: 0.3, Eibar first half goals: 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's quality and Cultural's likely fatigue and desperation should see Eibar dominate the second half, securing a win in that period.
- Eibar have superior fitness and depth, often scoring late goals
- Cultural Leonesa concede 1.7 goals per game, with many in second half
- Cultural's must-win situation may lead to defensive gaps as they push forward
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableEibarEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by Eibar's superiority in the second half is a plausible scenario, though the exact sequence carries moderate probability.
- Cultural Leonesa draw at half time in 40% of matches
- Eibar win full time in 67% of last 15 matches
- Cultural lose full time in 60% of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/EibarEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring trends, especially Eibar's solid defense (0.7 conceded per game) and Cultural's weak attack (0.7 scored), making under 2.5 goals likely.
- Cultural Leonesa average 0.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per match in last 15
- Eibar average 1.5 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per match in last 15
- Eibar away matches: 13 goals scored, 19 conceded in 19 games (1.68 total goals per game)
- Cultural home matches: 13 goals scored, 29 conceded in 19 games (2.21 total goals per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's defensive solidity and Cultural's scoring struggles suggest at least one team will fail to score, with Eibar's clean sheet potential being high.
- Cultural Leonesa failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches
- Eibar kept clean sheets in 7 of last 15 matches
- Eibar conceded only 0.7 goals per game in last 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's strong defensive record and Cultural's offensive ineptitude make an away clean sheet a plausible outcome, though not a certainty.
- Eibar kept clean sheets in 7 of last 15 matches
- Cultural Leonesa scored only 0.7 goals per game in last 15
- Cultural failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCultural Leonesa not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cultural's slow starts (0.3 first half goals) and Eibar's solid first half defense (0.3 conceded) point to a goalless first half, though Eibar's 0.9 first half goals introduces some risk.
- Cultural Leonesa first half goals: 0.3 per game, first half conceded: 0.6 per game in last 15
- Eibar first half goals: 0.9 per game, first half conceded: 0.3 per game in last 15
- Cultural led at half time in only 20% of matches, trailed in 40%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
As the match progresses, Cultural's need for a result could open up the game, and Eibar's superior fitness and quality should lead to at least one second-half goal.
- Cultural Leonesa concede 1.7 goals per game overall, with many coming after half time
- Eibar score 1.5 goals per game, often in second half as they wear down opponents
- Cultural's desperation may lead to more open play in second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the combined average is below 9.5, suggesting a low-corner match, though Eibar's away matches sometimes see higher opponent corners.
- Cultural Leonesa average 3.1 corners per game, concede 4.5 opponent corners per game in last 15
- Eibar average 3.7 corners per game, concede 5.9 opponent corners per game in last 15
- Combined average corners: 8.6 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cultural's aggressive, must-win approach combined with their high yellow card average makes over 4.5 cards likely, especially with the match intensity.
- Cultural Leonesa average 3.3 yellow cards per game in last 15
- Eibar average 2.7 yellow cards per game in last 15
- Cultural's desperation and high foul count (14.6 per game) increase card risk
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W1-2EibarvCultural LeonesaDec 7, 2025SEG

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
22	Cultural Leonesa Relegation	39	8	9	22	36-64	33	LDLLL
7	Eibar	39	18	10	11	48-36	64	WLWWD

31pt gap between teamsCultural Leonesa in relegation zone

Recent Form

Cultural Leonesa

L1-2AlbaceteMay 9SEG

D2-2CadizMay 2SEG

L1-2MirandesApr 26SEG

L1-2CordobaApr 18SEG

L0-1Granada CFApr 12SEG

W1-0ValladolidApr 4SEG

D1-1HuescaApr 1SEG

L0-4FC AndorraMar 29SEG

D1-1CastellónMar 23SEG

L1-2Racing SantanderMar 14SEG

L0-3AlmeriaMar 9SEG

L0-3Las PalmasMar 1SEG

D1-1LeganesFeb 21SEG

D0-0ZaragozaFeb 14SEG

L1-2MalagaFeb 8SEG

Eibar

W1-0MirandesMay 10SEG

L2-4MalagaMay 2SEG

W3-0AlbaceteApr 24SEG

W2-1HuescaApr 19SEG

D0-0ValladolidApr 13SEG

W3-0AD Ceuta FCApr 5SEG

W1-0Real Sociedad IIApr 2SEG

W3-1Las PalmasMar 29SEG

W1-0FC AndorraMar 21SEG

D0-0BurgosMar 15SEG

W1-0LeganesMar 8SEG

W3-1CadizMar 1SEG

L0-1Deportivo La CorunaFeb 21SEG

W2-1Racing SantanderFeb 15SEG

D1-1ZaragozaFeb 7SEG

Squad & Injuries

Cultural Leonesa

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Eibar

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Cultural Leonesa2Eibar1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Eibar

Draw or Eibar

Draw at half-time / Eibar at full-time

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cultural Leonesa

Eibar

Squad & Injuries

Cultural Leonesa

Eibar