Primeira LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Casa Pia Atletico1Rio Ave1

HT 1–0Sat 16 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 20–6On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 9–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 00:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Casa Pia’s extreme home draw rate (8/16) and Rio Ave’s away resilience make the draw the standout outcome, with significant value on the draw at 3.80 and ‘Draw or Rio Ave’ at 2.05.

Expect a low-scoring affair: under 2.5 goals and a goalless first half are strongly supported by the data, offering clear betting edges.

Context

Home record: 2 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses in 16 Primeira Liga home games.
- Last 5 home matches: 3 draws, 2 losses, with 3 goalless first halves.
- Only 12.5% home win rate, failing to win in 14 of 16 home fixtures.
Away record: 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses in 16 Primeira Liga away games.
- Avoided defeat in 10 of 16 away trips this season.
- Last 5 away: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, with 3 clean sheets in that run.
Last 10 H2H: Rio Ave 5 wins, Casa Pia 2 wins, 3 draws.
- Rio Ave scored 2+ goals in 3 of the last 4 league meetings.
- Two of the last four league H2Hs ended in draws, including a 2-2 at Rio Ave.
Casa Pia last 5: W-L-L-L-D, scoring 2 goals and conceding 5.
- Rio Ave last 5: L-D-L-D-W, scoring 5 goals and conceding 8.
- Both teams average under 1.0 goals per game over their last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits this season, and recent H2H meetings have been tight, making a draw the most probable single outcome.
- Casa Pia home record: 2W-8D-6L, 8 draws in 16 home matches this season
- Rio Ave away record: 5W-5D-6L, 5 draws in 16 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Rio Ave wins, 1 Casa Pia win, with 2 draws in last 4 league meetings
- Casa Pia last 5 form: W-L-L-L-D, Rio Ave last 5: L-D-L-D-W, both inconsistent
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Casa Pia's extremely low home win rate combined with Rio Ave's historical H2H edge and decent away resilience supports a double chance favoring the visitors.
- Rio Ave are 5-3-2 in last 10 H2H, with 2+ goals in 3 of last 4 meetings
- Casa Pia home win rate only 12.5% (2/16), Rio Ave away loss rate 37.5% (6/16)
- Casa Pia have failed to win in 14 of 16 home matches this season
- Rio Ave have avoided defeat in 10 of 16 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Rio AveEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency for first-half draws in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H matches often go level into the break.
- Casa Pia home first half: led at HT in 4/16, trailed in 3/16, 9 draws
- Rio Ave away first half: led at HT in 1/16, trailed in 8/16, 7 draws
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at halftime
- Casa Pia last 5 home: 3 draws at HT, Rio Ave last 5 away: 3 draws at HT
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rio Ave have historically performed better in the second half of this fixture, and Casa Pia's home second-half record is poor, giving the visitors a slight edge.
- Rio Ave have won the second half in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Casa Pia home second-half record: won 3, drawn 5, lost 8 (estimated from full-time results and HT leads)
- Rio Ave away second-half record: won 5, drawn 4, lost 7
- Rio Ave scored 2+ second-half goals in 2 of last 4 H2H
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableRio AveEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the high frequency of draws at both halftime and fulltime in these teams' records, a stalemate throughout is a plausible low-probability outcome.
- Casa Pia home: 9/16 draws at HT, 8/16 draws at FT
- Rio Ave away: 7/16 draws at HT, 5/16 draws at FT
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at both HT and FT
- Both teams have high draw rates in their splits
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly concede and score in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have seen goals at both ends, making BTTS a likely outcome.
- Casa Pia home: scored in 11/16, conceded in 13/16 home matches
- Rio Ave away: scored in 12/16, conceded in 14/16 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5, with 2.8 total goals per game average
- Casa Pia last 5 home: scored in 3/5, Rio Ave last 5 away: scored in 3/5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and a majority of their home/away matches finish under 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.
- Casa Pia home matches: 11/16 under 2.5 goals (69%), average total goals 2.6
- Rio Ave away matches: 10/16 under 2.5 goals (63%), average total goals 2.75
- Casa Pia average goals scored last 15: 0.9, Rio Ave: 0.8
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score early, with low first-half goal averages and a pattern of goalless first halves in recent home/away matches.
- Casa Pia first half goals average: 0.6, first half goals conceded: 0.5
- Rio Ave first half goals average: 0.3, first half goals conceded: 0.7
- Casa Pia last 5 home first halves: 0-0 in 3 of 5
- Rio Ave last 5 away first halves: 0-0 in 2 of 5, only 1 goal scored total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While overall scoring is low, both defenses weaken in the second half, and recent H2H meetings have seen more goals after the break, giving a slight edge to over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Casa Pia concede 0.9 second-half goals on average at home (estimated from 1.4 total conceded minus 0.5 first half)
- Rio Ave concede 1.0 second-half goals on average away
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals
- Both teams tend to concede more after halftime
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While both teams concede corners, their combined corner averages hover around the 9.5 line, and recent H2H meetings have trended slightly under, supporting an under bet.
- Casa Pia home corners average: 3.7, opponent corners: 6.5, total ~10.2
- Rio Ave away corners average: 5.1, opponent corners: 5.9, total ~11.0
- Last 5 H2H: average total corners 9.2, with 3 of 5 under 9.5
- Casa Pia last 5 home: 3 of 5 under 9.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently pick up multiple cards, and the historical H2H fixture has been feisty with high card counts, making over 4.5 cards likely.
- Casa Pia average yellow cards: 2.9 per game, Rio Ave: 2.6
- Casa Pia home matches: 3+ cards in 12/16, Rio Ave away: 3+ cards in 11/16
- Last 5 H2H: average 5.2 cards per game, with 4 of 5 over 4.5
- Casa Pia fouls average 16.7, Rio Ave 11.8, but H2H intensity raises card counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L3-1Rio AvevCasa PiaJan 4, 2026PRI

L2-1Casa PiavRio AveMar 29, 2025PRI

W1-3Casa PiavRio AveJan 12, 2025TAÇ

D2-2Rio AvevCasa PiaNov 2, 2024PRI

L1-0Rio AvevCasa PiaFeb 11, 2024PRI

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primeira Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Casa Pia Atletico Liga Portugal (Relegation)	33	6	11	16	30-56	29	WLLLD
13	Rio Ave	33	8	11	14	34-56	35	LDLDW

6pt gap between teamsCasa Pia Atletico in relegation zone

Recent Form

Casa Pia Atletico

W1-0GuimaraesMay 11PRI

L0-1TondelaMay 3PRI

L1-2GIL VicenteApr 27PRI

L0-1SC BragaApr 23PRI

D0-0Santa ClaraApr 18PRI

L1-3AlvercaApr 12PRI

D1-1BenficaApr 6PRI

L0-4EstrelaMar 20PRI

D0-0EstorilMar 7PRI

D1-1MoreirenseMar 1PRI

L0-2FamalicaoFeb 23PRI

W3-2AroucaFeb 14PRI

D0-0NacionalFeb 8PRI

W2-1FC PortoFeb 2PRI

D3-3AVSJan 23PRI

Rio Ave

L1-4Sporting CPMay 11PRI

D0-0GIL VicenteMay 3PRI

L0-2GuimaraesApr 25PRI

D2-2AVSApr 17PRI

W2-0Santa ClaraApr 11PRI

L1-2AlvercaApr 4PRI

W2-1EstorilMar 22PRI

W2-1EstrelaMar 15PRI

W1-0TondelaMar 9PRI

D0-0FamalicaoMar 1PRI

L0-1FC PortoFeb 22PRI

L1-2MoreirenseFeb 16PRI

L0-3SC BragaFeb 8PRI

L0-3AroucaJan 31PRI

L0-4NacionalJan 25PRI

Squad & Injuries

Casa Pia Atletico

28 available

Attackers11

Midfielders7

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Rio Ave

27 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw or Rio Ave

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Under 9.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Casa Pia Atletico

Rio Ave

Squad & Injuries

Casa Pia Atletico

Rio Ave