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Predictions graded

Blau-Weiss Linz0Grazer AK3

HT 0–1Sat 16 May 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 11–17On targetOn target 5–7CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 20:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Blau-Weiss Linz's must-win home clash with Grazer AK is likely to be high-scoring, with all five recent H2H meetings going over 2.5 goals.

The best value lies in over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.70 (55% model probability vs. 37% implied) and both teams to score at 1.85 (62% vs. 54% implied). Avoid the short-priced home win and first-half markets, where Blau-Weiss Linz's slow starts undermine the edge.

Context

Die Presse confirmed on 10 May 2026 that Blau-Weiss Linz 'must win' this match to stay up.
- The pressure asymmetry is stark: if the game is level late, the home side will be forced to push desperately.
- Blau-Weiss Linz manager Michael Kollner was hired in December 2025 with a contract that auto-extends only if the club survives.
GAK's away record this Bundesliga season: 1 win, 3 draws, 7 losses in 11 matches.
- They have scored only 7 goals on the road, the fewest in the league.
- In their last five away matches, GAK lost three and scored just one goal.
Blau-Weiss Linz won the only home H2H this season 3-0 on 13 September 2025.
- Grazer AK won both meetings in Graz (2-1 and 3-1).
- All five H2H meetings since 2024 have produced over 2.5 goals.
Blau-Weiss Linz have been behind at the break in 8 of 15 home matches.
- They average 1.1 second-half goals at home, with 2+ second-half goals in three of their last five home games.
- In the three H2H meetings this season, second halves produced three goals each time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Blau-Weiss Linz's must-win survival pressure and strong home H2H edge (3-0 win) outweigh Grazer AK's poor away form, making a home win the most likely single outcome.
- Blau-Weiss Linz won the only home H2H this season 3-0 (2025-09-13)
- Blau-Weiss Linz home record in relegation round: 7W 1D 7L, 28 goals scored in 15 matches
- Grazer AK away record this season: 1W 3D 7L in 11 league matches, only 7 goals scored
- Blau-Weiss Linz must win to survive, creating high motivation (confirmed by Die Presse, 2026-05-10)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBlau-Weiss LinzEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Blau-Weiss Linz's strong home resilience combined with Grazer AK's dreadful away form makes the home side avoiding defeat highly probable.
- Blau-Weiss Linz home record: 7W 1D 7L in relegation round, only 7 losses in 15 home matches
- Grazer AK away record: 1W 3D 7L in 11 league matches, 20 goals conceded
- H2H at Linz this season: Blau-Weiss Linz 3-0 Grazer AK
- Blau-Weiss Linz last 5 home matches: 3W 1D 1L (Wolfsberger 3-0, WSG Wattens 5-0, Ried 3-2, WSG Wattens 2-3, Wolfsberger 2-1)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBlau-Weiss Linz or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite poor first-half records, the survival imperative could give Blau-Weiss Linz an early edge, though confidence is low given historical trends.
- Blau-Weiss Linz led at half-time in only 27% of matches, but 2 of last 5 home matches
- Grazer AK trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches, but 2 of last 5 away matches
- H2H this season: Blau-Weiss Linz led at half-time in 0 of 3 meetings
- Home must-win motivation may drive a fast start
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBlau-Weiss LinzEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Blau-Weiss Linz's strong second-half performances at home and Grazer AK's tendency to fade away make a home second-half win probable.
- Blau-Weiss Linz won the second half in 3 of last 5 home matches
- Grazer AK lost the second half in 3 of last 5 away matches
- H2H this season: Blau-Weiss Linz won the second half 2-0 in the home meeting
- Home side's fitness and urgency likely to dominate late
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBlau-Weiss LinzEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a home breakthrough is a plausible script given the stakes, though the specific HT/FT combo carries low probability.
- Blau-Weiss Linz drew at half-time in 20% of matches, but won 3 of last 5 home matches overall
- Grazer AK drew at half-time in 40% of matches, but lost 3 of last 5 away matches
- H2H this season: no draw/win pattern observed
- Must-win pressure may lead to a cautious first half before a second-half surge
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Blau-Weiss LinzEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history consistently produce high-scoring games, driven by Blau-Weiss Linz's attacking urgency and Grazer AK's leaky away defense.
- Blau-Weiss Linz home matches average 2.8 total goals (28 scored, 20 conceded in 15 home games)
- Grazer AK away matches average 2.45 total goals (7 scored, 20 conceded in 11 away games)
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3, 4, 3, 3, 4 goals (all over 2.5)
- Blau-Weiss Linz last 5 home matches: 3, 5, 5, 5, 3 goals (all over 2.5)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Blau-Weiss Linz's consistent home scoring and Grazer AK's poor away defensive record, combined with H2H trends, make both teams scoring likely.
- Blau-Weiss Linz scored in 13 of 15 home matches this season
- Grazer AK conceded in 10 of 11 away matches this season
- Last 5 H2H meetings: both teams scored in 4 of 5
- Blau-Weiss Linz conceded in 12 of 15 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Blau-Weiss Linz's strong home scoring form and Grazer AK's away defensive frailties support the home side netting at least twice.
- Blau-Weiss Linz scored 2+ goals in 8 of 15 home matches this season
- Blau-Weiss Linz scored 3 goals in the only home H2H this season
- Grazer AK conceded 2+ goals in 7 of 11 away matches
- Blau-Weiss Linz last 5 home matches: scored 2+ in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBlau-Weiss Linz over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While first-half data is mixed, the survival stakes could push Blau-Weiss Linz to attack early, increasing the chance of multiple first-half goals.
- Blau-Weiss Linz first-half goals at home: 0.5 average, but 2+ in 2 of last 5 home matches
- Grazer AK first-half goals conceded away: 0.5 average, but 2+ in 2 of last 5 away matches
- H2H this season: first-half goals were 0, 1, 0 in three meetings
- Blau-Weiss Linz trailing at half-time in 53% of matches, but must-win pressure may force early aggression
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in this fixture have consistently produced goals, and the relegation pressure is likely to open up the game after the break.
- Blau-Weiss Linz second-half goals at home: 1.1 average, with 2+ in 3 of last 5 home matches
- Grazer AK second-half goals conceded away: 1.1 average, with 2+ in 3 of last 5 away matches
- H2H this season: second-half goals were 3, 3, 3 in three meetings
- Must-win context often leads to late-game urgency and goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner averages hover near the 9.5 line, but the open, attacking nature of this must-win game could push the total slightly over.
- Blau-Weiss Linz home corners average: 5.7, opponent corners: 3.3, total 9.0
- Grazer AK away corners average: 4.4, opponent corners: 4.5, total 8.9
- Last 5 H2H meetings: corner totals of 5, 14, 9, 7, 6 (average 8.2)
- Blau-Weiss Linz last 5 home matches: corner totals of 7, 7, 12, 7, 6 (average 7.8)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes nature of this relegation shootout is expected to raise the intensity and card count above the season averages.
- Blau-Weiss Linz home yellow cards average: 2.3, opponent yellow cards: 2.5, total 4.8
- Grazer AK away yellow cards average: 2.2, opponent yellow cards: 2.0, total 4.2
- Last 5 H2H meetings: card totals of 5, 5, 3, 5, 4 (average 4.4)
- Relegation decider likely to increase physicality and disciplinary actions
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-1Grazer AKvFC BW LinzApr 4, 2026BL

L3-1Grazer AKvFC BW LinzNov 29, 2025BL

L3-0FC BW LinzvGrazer AKSep 13, 2025BL

W1-2FC BW LinzvGrazer AKNov 24, 2024BL

D2-2Grazer AKvFC BW LinzAug 17, 2024BL

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Blau-Weiss Linz Relegation Round	22	4	3	15	20-36	15	DLWWD
11	Grazer AK Relegation Round	22	4	8	10	22-36	20	DWLLD

5pt gap between teamsBlau-Weiss Linz in relegation zoneGrazer AK in relegation zone

Recent Form

Blau-Weiss Linz

D1-1WSG WattensMay 9BL

L0-2RiedMay 2BL

W3-0SCR AltachApr 24BL

W3-0Wolfsberger ACApr 21BL

D0-0Wolfsberger ACApr 18BL

W5-0WSG WattensApr 11BL

L1-2Grazer AKApr 4BL

W3-2RiedMar 21BL

L1-3SCR AltachMar 14BL

D1-1TSV HartbergMar 8BL

L2-3WSG WattensMar 1BL

L0-1Sturm GrazFeb 22BL

W2-1Wolfsberger ACFeb 15BL

L0-1SCR AltachFeb 8BL

L2-3Lask LinzJan 30CUP

Grazer AK

D2-2SCR AltachMay 9BL

W4-0WSG WattensMay 2BL

L0-1Wolfsberger ACApr 25BL

L1-2RiedApr 21BL

D1-1RiedApr 17BL

L0-1SCR AltachApr 11BL

W2-1FC BW LinzApr 4BL

W2-0SV KapfenbergMar 26FRI

W5-1WSG WattensMar 21BL

W2-0Wolfsberger ACMar 14BL

L0-2WSG WattensMar 8BL

W2-1RiedMar 1BL

L0-1TSV HartbergFeb 21BL

D1-1Red Bull SalzburgFeb 15BL

D2-2Wolfsberger ACFeb 8BL

Squad & Injuries

Blau-Weiss Linz

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Grazer AK

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Blau-Weiss Linz or Draw

Blau-Weiss Linz

Over 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Blau-Weiss Linz

Grazer AK

Squad & Injuries

Blau-Weiss Linz

Grazer AK