BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Bayer Leverkusen1Hamburg1

HT 0–0Sat 16 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 26–19On targetOn target 8–6CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 23:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Leverkusen’s dominant H2H record and strong home form make them clear favorites against a Hamburg side with a terrible away record, but the 1.25 odds offer no value.

Goal markets are inflated, with over 2.5 goals at 1.29 implying a 77.5% chance versus our 60% estimate. The best watchpoint is Leverkusen’s managerial instability—if they start slowly, in-play under or draw opportunities could emerge.

Context

talkSPORT reported on 7 May that Hurzeler rejected Leverkusen interest, keeping the manager question alive.
- Leverkusen sacked ten Hag in September 2025 and hired Hjulmand within a week, showing a pattern of instability.
- The latest speculation arrives just before this match, potentially distracting players and staff.
Hamburg's away record: 3W-4D-9L, goals 14-31 (-17).
- Last three away games: 1-3 at Bremen, 0-4 at Stuttgart, 2-3 at Dortmund.
- They have conceded at least three goals in each of those three away defeats.
Last five H2H: Leverkusen 4 wins, Hamburg 0 wins, 1 draw (not in last five).
- Most recent meeting: Leverkusen won 1-0 at Hamburg in March 2026.
- Hamburg's last win over Leverkusen was in February 2017.
Leverkusen home: 37 goals in 16 games (2.3 per game).
- Hamburg away: 31 goals conceded in 16 games (1.9 per game).
- Last five Leverkusen home games: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Last five Hamburg away games: all 5 had over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bayer Leverkusen

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Leverkusen's dominant H2H record and strong home form contrast sharply with Hamburg's poor away performances, making a home win highly probable.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bayer Leverkusen or Draw

1.07fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 93%

−8.0ppshort

Hamburg's away win rate is just 19%, and Leverkusen have lost only 25% at home, making a Hamburg win extremely unlikely.

1 St Half Resultnot gradableUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bayer Leverkusen

1.61fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 62%

0.0ppshort

Leverkusen have led at HT in 3 of their last 5 home games, while Hamburg have trailed in 2 of their last 5 away, suggesting a first-half edge.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, and Leverkusen's attacking strength at home suggests a high-scoring game.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 3.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

−2.1ppshort

Leverkusen's home games average 3.4 total goals, and Hamburg's away games average 2.8, making over 3.5 a plausible outcome.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away fixtures, making both teams scoring likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Recent first-half scoring trends for both teams indicate a good chance of at least 2 goals in the first half.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be involved in matches with multiple second-half goals, supporting over 1.5 in the second half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's strong home form and dominant H2H record, combined with Hamburg's poor away performances and recent slump, make a home win highly likely.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 1-0 away win in March 2026.
- Leverkusen home record this season: 9W-3D-4L, goals 37-18 (+19); Hamburg away record: 3W-4D-9L, goals 14-31 (-17).
- Leverkusen last 5 form: L-W-W-L-W (9 points); Hamburg last 5: W-W-L-L-L (6 points), with 3 consecutive away losses conceding 9 goals.
- Leverkusen average 1.7 goals scored vs Hamburg's 1.5 conceded per game; at home Leverkusen concede only 1.1 goals per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Leverkusen's solid home record and Hamburg's struggles on the road, the probability of Hamburg winning is very low, making Leverkusen or Draw a high-confidence outcome.
- Leverkusen have lost only 4 of 16 home games this season (25% loss rate).
- Hamburg have won only 3 of 16 away games (19% win rate).
- H2H last 5: Leverkusen 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss; Hamburg have not beaten Leverkusen since 2017.
- Leverkusen's home goal difference is +19; Hamburg's away goal difference is -17.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBayer Leverkusen or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's tendency to start strong at home, combined with Hamburg's vulnerability early in away games, gives Leverkusen an edge to lead at half-time.
- Leverkusen led at half-time in 33% of all matches; Hamburg trailed at half-time in 27% of all matches.
- At home, Leverkusen's first-half performance is stronger: in last 5 home games, they led at HT in 3 (vs Leipzig, Wolfsburg, Heidenheim).
- Hamburg away: in last 5 away games, they trailed at HT in 2 (vs Stuttgart, Dortmund) and were level in 3.
- H2H March 2026: Leverkusen led 1-0 at half-time away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Leverkusen are favorites, the specific HT/FT double is less frequent, but the H2H pattern and home advantage provide some support.
- Leverkusen led at HT and won FT in 5 of 16 home games (31%).
- Hamburg trailed at HT and lost FT in 4 of 16 away games (25%).
- Last H2H: Leverkusen led 1-0 at HT and won 1-0 FT away.
- Leverkusen's last 5 home games: HT/FT W/W occurred once (vs Leipzig).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableBayer Leverkusen / Bayer LeverkusenEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Winning both halves is rare for Leverkusen even in victory, and Hamburg typically remain competitive in one half, making 'No' the likely outcome.
- Leverkusen have won both halves in only 2 of 16 home games this season (12.5%).
- Hamburg have lost both halves in 3 of 16 away games (18.8%).
- In Leverkusen's 9 home wins, only 2 were by winning both halves.
- Hamburg's away losses often involve a competitive first half before fading.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches consistently exceed 2.5 goals, and Leverkusen's attacking strength at home suggests a high-scoring game.
- Leverkusen home matches average 3.4 total goals (37 scored, 18 conceded in 16 games).
- Hamburg away matches average 2.8 total goals (14 scored, 31 conceded in 16 games).
- Leverkusen's last 5 home games: 4-1, 0-2, 1-2, 6-3, 1-1 — 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Hamburg's last 5 away games: 2-1, 1-3, 0-4, 2-3, 2-1 — all 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in their respective home/away fixtures, making both teams scoring likely.
- Leverkusen have scored in 14 of 16 home games this season; Hamburg have scored in 10 of 16 away games.
- Hamburg have conceded in 14 of 16 away games; Leverkusen have conceded in 10 of 16 home games.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but recent form suggests higher scoring.
- Leverkusen's last 5 home games: both teams scored in 4; Hamburg's last 5 away: both teams scored in all 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-half scoring trends for both teams indicate a good chance of at least 2 goals in the first half.
- Leverkusen average 0.9 first-half goals at home; Hamburg concede 0.9 first-half goals away on average.
- Leverkusen's last 5 home games: first-half goals: 2, 0, 1, 2, 1 — 3 of 5 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Hamburg's last 5 away games: first-half goals: 1, 1, 2, 2, 1 — 4 of 5 had at least 2 first-half goals.
- Leverkusen led at half-time in 33% of matches overall, but at home this rate is likely higher.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in matches with multiple second-half goals, supporting over 1.5 in the second half.
- Leverkusen home games average 1.8 second-half goals (based on total goals minus first-half goals).
- Hamburg away games average 1.6 second-half goals.
- Leverkusen's last 5 home games: second-half goals: 2, 2, 1, 4, 0 — 3 of 5 had over 1.5.
- Hamburg's last 5 away games: second-half goals: 1, 2, 2, 1, 1 — 3 of 5 had over 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages hover around the 9.5 line, with Leverkusen's home corner count pushing the total slightly over, but confidence is low due to variance.
- Leverkusen average 5.9 corners per game overall; at home, they average around 6.5 corners.
- Hamburg average 3.7 corners per game overall; away, they average 3.2 corners.
- Combined average corners in Leverkusen home games: ~9.7; in Hamburg away games: ~9.5.
- Last H2H (March 2026): total corners were 9 (Leverkusen 7, Hamburg 2).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W0-1Hamburger SVvBayer LeverkusenMar 4, 2026BL

W1-2Hamburger SVvBayer LeverkusenFeb 17, 2018BL

W3-0Bayer LeverkusenvHamburger SVSep 24, 2017BL

L1-0Hamburger SVvBayer LeverkusenFeb 3, 2017BL

W3-1Bayer LeverkusenvHamburger SVSep 10, 2016BL

Bayer Leverkusen: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Bayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League	33	17	7	9	67-46	58	LWWLW
11	Hamburg	33	9	10	14	39-53	37	WWLLL

21pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Bayer Leverkusen

L1-3VfB StuttgartMay 9BL

W4-1RB LeipzigMay 2BL

W2-11. FC KölnApr 25BL

L0-2Bayern MünchenApr 22DFB

L1-2FC AugsburgApr 18BL

W1-0Borussia DortmundApr 11BL

W6-3VfL WolfsburgApr 4BL

D3-31. FC HeidenheimMar 21BL

L0-2ArsenalMar 17UEF

D1-1Bayern MünchenMar 14BL

D1-1ArsenalMar 11UEF

D3-3SC FreiburgMar 7BL

W1-0Hamburger SVMar 4BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05Feb 28BL

D0-0Olympiakos PiraeusFeb 24UEF

Hamburg

W3-2SC FreiburgMay 10BL

W2-1Eintracht FrankfurtMay 2BL

L1-21899 HoffenheimApr 25BL

L1-3Werder BremenApr 18BL

L0-4VfB StuttgartApr 12BL

D1-1FC AugsburgApr 4BL

L2-3Borussia DortmundMar 21BL

D1-11. FC KölnMar 14BL

W2-1VfL WolfsburgMar 7BL

L0-1Bayer LeverkusenMar 4BL

L1-2RB LeipzigMar 1BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05Feb 20BL

W3-2Union BerlinFeb 14BL

W2-01. FC HeidenheimFeb 7BL

D2-2Bayern MünchenJan 31BL

Squad & Injuries

Bayer Leverkusen

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

Hamburg

30 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3