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Predictions graded

St Patrick's0Shelbourne1

HT 0–0Fri 15 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 10–12On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 20:23 · Europe/Bucharest

St Patrick's strong home form and Shelbourne's poor recent run make the hosts favorites, but the real betting value is in goals: over 2.5 goals (11-point edge) and both teams to score (15-point edge) are the top picks.

Shelbourne to score at least once is also a high-probability play, though with minimal edge.

Context

Home record: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 8 games.
- 20 goals scored, 5 conceded at home.
- Last 5 home matches: 4 wins, 1 draw, including a 4-1 win over Waterford and 4-0 over Dundalk.
Last 5 results: D-D-W-L-L.
- Conceded 11 goals in those 5 games.
- Away form remains decent (1 loss in 7), but recent overall trend is poor.
Damien Duff resigned on 22 June 2025.
- Joey O'Brien was confirmed on a long-term contract on 3 July 2025.
- Shelbourne's results have been inconsistent since the change.
Last 3 H2H: St Patrick's won 2, Shelbourne won 0, 1 draw.
- St Patrick's won 3-2 at Shelbourne on 6 March 2026.
- Last meeting at Richmond Park: 0-0 draw in November 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's strong home form (6 wins in 8) and Shelbourne's poor recent run (1 win in 5) give the hosts a clear edge, supported by a slight H2H advantage.
- St Patrick's home record this season: 6W-1D-1L, 20 goals scored, 5 conceded in 8 matches.
- Shelbourne away record: 4W-2D-1L, but overall form last 5: D-D-W-L-L, with only 1 win in last 5.
- H2H last 5: St Patrick's won 2, Shelbourne won 2, 1 draw; St Patrick's won the most recent meeting 3-2 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining St Patrick's strong home form with Shelbourne's decent away resilience, a home win or draw is highly likely.
- St Patrick's home record: only 1 loss in 8 home games this season.
- Shelbourne away record: 1 loss in 7 away games, but 2 draws in last 3 away.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 ended in St Patrick's win or draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSt Patrick's or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's strong home starts give them a slight edge to lead at the break, but Shelbourne's away resilience keeps confidence low.
- St Patrick's home: led at half-time in 5 of 8 home games (62.5%).
- Shelbourne away: trailed at half-time in 2 of 7 away games (28.6%).
- St Patrick's overall first-half performance: leading at half-time in 40% of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's tend to finish strong at home, but Shelbourne's ability to compete in second halves makes this a low-confidence call.
- St Patrick's home: won second half in 5 of 8 home games.
- Shelbourne away: lost second half in 3 of 7 away games.
- St Patrick's overall second-half performance: +0.6 goal difference per second half at home.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSt Patrick'sEstimated chance45%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches this season average around 3 goals, and recent H2H meetings have been relatively high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals probable.
- St Patrick's home matches average 3.1 total goals (20 scored, 5 conceded in 8 games).
- Shelbourne away matches average 3.0 total goals (12 scored, 9 conceded in 7 games).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong scoring records in their respective home/away splits but also concede regularly, suggesting both will find the net.
- St Patrick's home: scored in 7 of 8 home games, but kept only 3 clean sheets.
- Shelbourne away: scored in 6 of 7 away games, but kept only 1 clean sheet.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's consistently score multiple goals at home, and Shelbourne's away defense has been leaky recently, making over 1.5 home goals likely.
- St Patrick's home: scored 2+ goals in 6 of 8 home games this season.
- St Patrick's overall: scored 2+ in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Shelbourne away: conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5 away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSt Patrick's over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne have a strong away scoring record, and St Patrick's don't keep many clean sheets at home, so an away goal is highly probable.
- Shelbourne away: scored in 6 of 7 away games this season.
- St Patrick's home: conceded in 5 of 8 home games.
- Last 5 H2H: Shelbourne scored in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonShelbourne over 0.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history shows frequent first-half action.
- St Patrick's home: first-half goals in 7 of 8 home games (avg 1.1 first-half goals scored).
- Shelbourne away: first-half goals in 5 of 7 away games (avg 0.9 first-half goals scored).
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in matches involving these teams tend to be high-scoring, with both sides contributing, though confidence is tempered by variability.
- St Patrick's home: second-half goals in 7 of 8 home games, averaging 1.9 total second-half goals.
- Shelbourne away: second-half goals in 6 of 7 away games, averaging 2.1 total second-half goals.
- Combined second-half goal average in these splits: ~2.0.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away corner averages hover around 10, suggesting a moderate chance of exceeding 9.5 corners.
- St Patrick's home: average 5.5 corners for, 4.4 against = 9.9 total corners per home game.
- Shelbourne away: average 5.8 corners for, 4.3 against = 10.1 total corners per away game.
- Last 5 H2H: corner counts unavailable, but both teams average ~10 corners in their splits.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shelbourne's high card count away from home pushes the expected total above 3.5, though St Patrick's discipline at home tempers the probability.
- St Patrick's home: average 1.5 yellow cards, opponents 2.1 = 3.6 total cards per home game.
- Shelbourne away: average 3.1 yellow cards, opponents 2.1 = 5.2 total cards per away game.
- Shelbourne's last 5 away: 4+ cards in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W2-3ShelbournevSt Patrick's Athl.Mar 6, 2026PRE

D0-0ShelbournevSt Patrick's Athl.Nov 1, 2025PRE

L2-0St Patrick's Athl.vShelbourneAug 17, 2025FAI

W0-1St Patrick's Athl.vShelbourneJun 16, 2025PRE

L2-1ShelbournevSt Patrick's Athl.May 9, 2025PRE

St Patrick's: 2 clean sheetsShelbourne: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	St Patrick's Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	16	9	4	3	31-15	31	WDDWW
7	Shelbourne	15	4	6	5	23-24	18	DDWLL

13pt gap between teams

Recent Form

St Patrick's

W4-1WaterfordMay 8PRE

D1-1Sligo RoversMay 4PRE

D2-2Galway UnitedMay 1PRE

W3-1BohemiansApr 24PRE

W3-1Drogheda UnitedApr 17PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversApr 10PRE

L0-2DundalkApr 6PRE

W4-1Sligo RoversApr 3PRE

W2-0WaterfordMar 20PRE

D0-0Derry CityMar 16PRE

W4-1Drogheda UnitedMar 13PRE

W3-2ShelbourneMar 6PRE

W1-0Galway UnitedMar 2PRE

W4-0DundalkFeb 27PRE

L0-2Shamrock RoversFeb 20PRE

Shelbourne

D0-0Sligo RoversMay 8PRE

D2-2BohemiansMay 4PRE

W2-1DundalkMay 1PRE

L3-4Drogheda UnitedApr 24PRE

L1-2Derry CityApr 17PRE

L2-3Shamrock RoversApr 6PRE

L2-3DundalkApr 3PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMar 21PRE

D0-0BohemiansMar 16PRE

W2-1Derry CityMar 13PRE

D2-2Shamrock RoversMar 9PRE

L2-3St Patrick's Athl.Mar 6PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedFeb 27PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedFeb 20PRE

D1-1WaterfordFeb 6PRE

Squad & Injuries

St Patrick's

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Shelbourne

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 0.5

Yes

Over 2.5

St Patrick's

St Patrick's or Draw

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Patrick's

Shelbourne

Squad & Injuries

St Patrick's

Shelbourne