Süper LigFull time

Predictions graded

Rizespor2Besiktas2

HT 2–0Fri 15 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 23–23On targetOn target 5–9CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 21:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Besiktas are slight favorites in a competitive Süper Lig clash, but the outright and goals markets are overpriced.

The top actionable edge is over 4.5 cards at 3.00 (+21.7% value), backed by consistent disciplinary records and recent H2H trends. Over 8.5 corners also offers a smaller edge, while double chance and both-teams-to-score lack value despite high likelihood.

Context

Rizespor home record: 8W-2D-6L, 22 goals scored in 16 matches.
- They beat Konyaspor 3-2 and Samsunspor 4-1 at home in recent weeks.
- Only Galatasaray and Trabzonspor have won comfortably at Rize this season.
Besiktas away record: 8W-4D-4L, conceding just 0.9 goals per away game on average.
- They lost 2-1 at Samsunspor and 1-0 at Fenerbahce in their last two away league matches.
- The 0-0 home draw with Fatih Karagümrük on 27 April highlighted attacking struggles.
Last three league H2H: Besiktas 1-0 (Dec 2025), Rizespor 2-1 (May 2025), 1-1 draw (Jan 2025).
- Rizespor’s home win in May 2025 ended a run of three straight Besiktas league wins at Rize.
- The 4-1 Besiktas cup win in March 2026 is less relevant for league form.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Besiktas has a stronger overall season and away form, but Rizespor's competitive recent H2H and home resilience suggest a close match with Besiktas as slight favorites.
- Besiktas away record: 8W-4D-4L, 27GF/18GA in 16 matches this season
- Rizespor home record: 8W-2D-6L, 22GF/21GA in 16 matches
- Besiktas last 5 league form: W-D-L-W-L (8GF/5GA); Rizespor last 5 league form: W-L-D-W-L (7GF/11GA)
- H2H last 3 league meetings: Besiktas 1-0 (Dec 2025), Rizespor 2-1 (May 2025), Draw 1-1 (Jan 2025)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBesiktasEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rizespor's home form is inconsistent, and Besiktas rarely loses away, making a Besiktas win or draw highly probable.
- Rizespor home losses: 6 in 16; Besiktas away losses: only 4 in 16
- Rizespor home win rate: 50%; Besiktas away win rate: 50%
- H2H last 5: Besiktas 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 Rizespor win (all competitions)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BesiktasEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Besiktas has a clear first-half edge statistically, but the low probability reflects the high chance of a draw at the break given recent H2H patterns.
- Besiktas led at half-time in 40% of all matches; Rizespor led in only 27%
- Besiktas away first half record: 1.0 GF, 0.3 GA; Rizespor home first half: 0.5 GF, 0.9 GA
- Last 5 H2H: Besiktas led at half-time in 2, draw in 3
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBesiktasEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Besiktas tends to be stronger after the break, and Rizespor's second-half defensive frailties at home give Besiktas a slight edge.
- Besiktas second half goal difference: +0.8 per game (1.8 total - 1.0 first half); Rizespor: -0.2 (1.5 total - 0.5 first half)
- Besiktas won second half in 3 of last 5 away league games; Rizespor lost second half in 3 of last 5 home league games
- H2H last 3 league: Besiktas won second half in 2, draw in 1
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBesiktasEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Besiktas win is a plausible scenario given Besiktas' second-half strength and Rizespor's tendency to fade.
- Besiktas away matches: 4 of 16 had HT draw and FT Besiktas win
- Rizespor home matches: 2 of 16 had HT draw and FT loss
- Last 5 H2H: 2 matches had HT draw and FT Besiktas win
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/BesiktasEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history show a tendency for goals, with over 2.5 occurring in the majority of relevant samples.
- Rizespor home matches average 2.69 total goals (43 goals in 16 games)
- Besiktas away matches average 2.81 total goals (45 goals in 16 games)
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Rizespor last 5 home league games: 3 of 5 over 2.5; Besiktas last 5 away league games: 3 of 5 over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have strong scoring records in their respective home/away splits and a history of both scoring in this fixture.
- Rizespor scored in 13 of 16 home league games (81%)
- Besiktas scored in 13 of 16 away league games (81%)
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Rizespor conceded in 12 of 16 home games; Besiktas conceded in 10 of 16 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see first-half action, with Besiktas particularly strong early, making over 0.5 first-half goals very likely.
- Rizespor first half goals at home: 0.5 avg; conceded 0.9 avg overall
- Besiktas first half goals away: 1.0 avg; conceded 0.3 avg overall
- Last 5 H2H: first half goals in 4 of 5 matches
- Rizespor last 5 home league: first half goals in 4 of 5; Besiktas last 5 away league: first half goals in 4 of 5
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in this matchup often produce multiple goals, supported by both teams' scoring patterns and recent H2H data.
- Rizespor home second half goals: 1.0 avg (based on total 1.5 minus 0.5 first half)
- Besiktas away second half goals: 0.8 avg (based on total 1.8 minus 1.0 first half)
- Last 5 H2H: second half over 1.5 in 3 of 5
- Rizespor last 5 home: second half over 1.5 in 3 of 5; Besiktas last 5 away: second half over 1.5 in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and their combined averages comfortably exceed the 8.5 line.
- Rizespor home corners: 4.6 avg; Besiktas away corners: 5.8 avg
- Combined average corners in Rizespor home games: 9.4 (4.6 + 4.8 opponent); Besiktas away: 10.6 (5.8 + 4.8 opponent)
- Last 5 H2H: average total corners 9.2, with 4 of 5 over 8.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The fixture has a history of moderate card counts, and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a total above 4.5 cards is likely.
- Rizespor home yellow cards: 2.4 avg; Besiktas away yellow cards: 1.8 avg
- Combined average cards in Rizespor home games: 4.2 (2.4 + 1.8 opponent); Besiktas away: 4.0 (1.8 + 2.2 opponent)
- Last 5 H2H: average total cards 4.6, with 3 of 5 over 4.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L4-1BeşiktaşvRizesporMar 4, 2026TÜR

L1-0BeşiktaşvRizesporDec 20, 2025SÜP

W1-2BeşiktaşvRizesporMay 25, 2025SÜP

D1-1RizesporvBeşiktaşJan 3, 2025SÜP

L3-2BeşiktaşvRizesporMay 3, 2024SÜP

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Süper Lig 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Rizespor	33	10	10	13	44-50	40	LWLDW
4	Besiktas Conference League Qualification	33	17	8	8	57-38	59	LWDLW

19pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Rizespor

L0-4EyüpsporMay 9SÜP

W3-2KonyasporMay 1SÜP

L0-2KayserisporApr 25SÜP

D2-2FenerbahçeApr 17SÜP

W2-1Gaziantep FKApr 13SÜP

W4-1SamsunsporApr 9SÜP

L1-2Fatih KaragümrükApr 5SÜP

L0-1TrabzonsporMar 14SÜP

W1-0AntalyasporMar 8SÜP

L1-4BeşiktaşMar 4TÜR

W3-0KasımpaşaFeb 28SÜP

W2-0KocaelisporFeb 20SÜP

D2-2Gençlerbirliği S.K.Feb 14SÜP

L0-3GalatasarayFeb 8SÜP

D1-1Beyoğlu Yeni ÇarşıFeb 3TÜR

Besiktas

L1-2TrabzonsporMay 9SÜP

L0-1KonyasporMay 5TÜR

W2-0Gaziantep FKMay 1SÜP

D0-0Fatih KaragümrükApr 27SÜP

W3-0AlanyasporApr 23TÜR

L1-2SamsunsporApr 19SÜP

W4-2AntalyasporApr 10SÜP

L0-1FenerbahçeApr 5SÜP

W2-1KasımpaşaMar 19SÜP

W2-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Mar 15SÜP

L0-1GalatasarayMar 7SÜP

W4-1RizesporMar 4TÜR

W1-0KocaelisporFeb 28SÜP

W4-0GöztepeFeb 22SÜP

W3-2BaşakşehirFeb 15SÜP

Squad & Injuries

Rizespor

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Besiktas

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Besiktas

Over 8.5

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Yes

Over 2.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Rizespor

Besiktas

Squad & Injuries

Rizespor

Besiktas