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Predictions graded

Villarreal2Sevilla3

HT 2–2Wed 13 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 6–13On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 11:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Villarreal's dominant home form and H2H record against a poor-traveling Sevilla side make the home win and Villarreal over 1.5 team goals the top plays.

The over 1.5 first-half goals also offers value given Villarreal's fast starts. Marcelino's farewell narrative supports full focus, not complacency.

Context

Home record: 14W 1D 2L, with 41 goals scored and 15 conceded.
- Scored 2+ goals in 13 of 17 home matches (76%).
- Won 5 of last 7 home matches, leading at halftime in 5 of those.
Away record: 4W 3D 10L, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded.
- Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of 17 away matches.
- Lost 3 of last 5 away matches, failing to score in 2 of those.
Last 5 H2Hs: Villarreal 4W 1D, scoring 2, 4, 2, 3, and 1 goals.
- Sevilla have not beaten Villarreal in La Liga since April 2023.
- All four Villarreal wins saw over 2.5 total goals.
On May 4, Villarreal confirmed Marcelino's departure after the season.
- On May 8, Marcelino stated: 'We want to win and keep third place.'
- Villarreal are still competing for a top-three finish, which adds competitive stakes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's dominant home form and strong H2H psychology against a poor-traveling Sevilla side make a home win highly likely.
- Villarreal home record this season: 14W 1D 2L (41GF, 15GA in 17 matches).
- Sevilla away record: 4W 3D 10L (19GF, 32GA in 17 matches).
- H2H last 5: Villarreal unbeaten (4W 1D), scoring 2+ in last 4 meetings.
- Villarreal form last 5: 3W 2D 0L; Sevilla last 5: 2W 0D 3L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVillarrealEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Villarreal's fortress-like home record with Sevilla's away struggles and H2H dominance, a Villarreal win or draw is strongly supported.
- Villarreal have lost only 2 of 17 home matches this season.
- Sevilla have won only 4 of 17 away matches.
- Villarreal are unbeaten in last 5 H2Hs (4W 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVillarreal or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's strong home starts and Sevilla's slow away beginnings give the hosts an edge to lead at the break.
- Villarreal led at halftime in 53% of recent matches overall; at home, they led in 5 of last 7 home matches with available data.
- Sevilla trailed at halftime in 40% of recent matches; away, they trailed in 5 of last 8 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Villarreal led at halftime in 2, drew 2, trailed 1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostVillarrealEstimated chance50%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' match profiles and recent H2H history point to a high-scoring affair, with Villarreal's home firepower and Sevilla's leaky away defense driving the over.
- Villarreal home matches average 3.29 total goals (56 goals in 17 games).
- Sevilla away matches average 3.0 total goals (51 goals in 17 games).
- Last 4 H2Hs all had over 2.5 goals (3, 6, 3, 5 goals).
- Villarreal scored 2+ in 13 of 17 home matches; Sevilla conceded 2+ in 8 of 17 away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's consistent home scoring and Sevilla's ability to find the net on the road, combined with H2H patterns, suggest both teams will score.
- Villarreal home: scored in 16/17, conceded in 10/17.
- Sevilla away: scored in 12/17, conceded in 15/17.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2Hs.
- Sevilla have scored in 4 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's prolific home scoring and Sevilla's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, reinforced by H2H trends, make over 1.5 home goals a strong pick.
- Villarreal scored 2+ in 13 of 17 home matches this season (76%).
- Villarreal scored 2+ in each of last 4 H2Hs vs Sevilla.
- Sevilla conceded 2+ in 8 of 17 away matches.
- Villarreal average 2.41 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonVillarreal over 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's decent away scoring record and Villarreal's occasional home defensive lapses support at least one away goal.
- Sevilla scored in 12 of 17 away matches (71%).
- Villarreal conceded in 10 of 17 home matches.
- Sevilla scored in 4 of last 5 H2Hs.
- Sevilla average 1.12 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSevilla over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's tendency to start fast at home and Sevilla's vulnerability early in away games suggest a lively first half with multiple goals.
- Villarreal home first-half goals: 1.1 avg; Sevilla away first-half goals conceded: 0.9 avg.
- Villarreal led at halftime in 53% of recent matches; Sevilla trailed in 40%.
- Last 5 H2Hs: 3 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Villarreal scored first-half goals in 4 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams likely to push after halftime, especially if the game is open, the second half could see multiple goals, though confidence is tempered by limited direct data.
- Villarreal home second-half goals: approx 1.3 (total home goals 2.41 minus first-half 1.1).
- Sevilla away second-half goals conceded: approx 1.0 (total away conceded 1.88 minus first-half 0.9).
- Last 5 H2Hs: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner stats and recent H2H meetings hover around the 8.5 line, making over 8.5 a marginal but reasonable call.
- Villarreal home corners: 3.7 avg; Sevilla away corners: 4.4 avg.
- Combined average corners in Villarreal home games: 7.7 (3.7 + 4.0 opponent avg).
- Sevilla away games average 8.8 total corners (4.4 + 4.4 opponent avg).
- Last 5 H2Hs: corner counts were 9, 10, 9, 8, 7 (avg 8.6).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams and historical H2H card counts suggest a moderately high-card game, though the line is tight.
- Villarreal average 1.9 yellow cards per match; Sevilla average 2.6.
- Combined average cards: 4.5.
- Sevilla away matches see slightly higher card counts (opponent fouls 13.2, Sevilla fouls 14).
- Recent H2Hs: card counts of 5, 6, 7, 5, 3 (avg 5.2).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W1-2SevillavVillarrealSep 23, 2025LL

W4-2VillarrealvSevillaMay 25, 2025LL

W1-2SevillavVillarrealAug 23, 2024LL

W3-2VillarrealvSevillaMay 11, 2024LL

D1-1SevillavVillarrealDec 3, 2023LL

Villarreal unbeaten in 5 meetings3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Villarreal Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	35	21	6	8	65-40	69	DWWDW
13	Sevilla	35	11	7	17	43-56	40	WWLLW

29pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Villarreal

D1-1MallorcaMay 10LL

W5-1LevanteMay 2LL

W2-1Celta VigoApr 26LL

D1-1OviedoApr 23LL

W2-1Athletic ClubApr 12LL

L0-1GironaApr 6LL

W3-1Real SociedadMar 20LL

D1-1AlavesMar 13LL

W2-1ElcheMar 8LL

L1-4BarcelonaFeb 28LL

W2-1ValenciaFeb 22LL

W1-0LevanteFeb 18LL

L1-2GetafeFeb 14LL

W4-1EspanyolFeb 9LL

D2-2OsasunaJan 31LL

Sevilla

W2-1EspanyolMay 9LL

W1-0Real SociedadMay 4LL

L1-2OsasunaApr 26LL

L0-2LevanteApr 23LL

W2-1Atletico MadridApr 11LL

L0-1OviedoApr 5LL

L0-2ValenciaMar 21LL

L2-5BarcelonaMar 15LL

D1-1Rayo VallecanoMar 8LL

D2-2Real BetisMar 1LL

W1-0GetafeFeb 22LL

D1-1AlavesFeb 14LL

D1-1GironaFeb 8LL

L1-4MallorcaFeb 2LL

W2-1Athletic ClubJan 24LL

Squad & Injuries

Villarreal

4 out

Attackers2/8

×#22

Midfielders8

Defenders2/12

×#8

Goalkeeper3

#8 J. Foyth — Achilles Tendon Injury

#22 A. Perez — Injury

#8 J. Foyth — Achilles Tendon Injury

#22 A. Perez — Injury

Sevilla

8 out

Attackers2/7

×#7

Midfielders2/10

×#28

Defenders4/11

×#23

×#12

×#23

×#12

Goalkeeper5

#23 Marcao — Wrist Injury

#28 M. Bueno — Knee Injury

#7 I. Romero — Injury

#12 G. Suazo — Shoulder Injury

#23 Marcao — Wrist Injury

#28 M. Bueno — Knee Injury

#7 I. Romero — Injury

#12 G. Suazo — Shoulder Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Villarreal

Villarreal or Draw

Villarreal

Over 1.5

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals6 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Villarreal

Sevilla

Squad & Injuries

Villarreal

Sevilla