Premier LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

West Ham0Arsenal1

HT 0–0Sun 10 May 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 9–15On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 22:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Arsenal are strong favorites to beat a struggling West Ham side, with a slim betting edge on the 1.62 win line.

The standout narrative is goals: recent H2H blowouts and West Ham's leaky home defense make over 2.5 goals at 1.67 the most attractive play, though value is tight. Avoid BTTS and corners, where our estimates fall below market implied probabilities.

Context

Arsenal won 6-0 at West Ham in February 2024 and 5-2 in November 2024.
- Across the last four meetings, Arsenal have won three, scoring 13 goals in those wins.
- West Ham's home defense has conceded 29 goals in 17 matches this season, averaging 1.7 per game.
West Ham have lost 8 of 17 home matches, conceding 29 goals.
- They have won only 5 home games all season, with a goal difference of -5 at home.
- Recent home form: W, D, D, L, W in last five, with only one clean sheet.
Arsenal's away record: 9 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, with 15 goals conceded.
- They have kept only 5 clean sheets in 17 away matches.
- West Ham have scored in 13 of 17 home matches, averaging 1.4 goals per home game.
Arsenal played Atletico Madrid on May 5, winning 1-0 to advance to the Champions League final.
- This match is on May 10, giving only four full days of rest.
- Arsenal have a deep squad, but key players may be rested with the title race still alive.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Arsenal

1.18fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

West Ham's poor home form and Arsenal's strong away record make a West Ham win unlikely, supporting a double chance for Arsenal or draw.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's superior league position, strong away defensive record, and recent dominant H2H results make them clear favorites.
- Arsenal are top of the league with 76 points from 35 matches, while West Ham are 18th with 36 points.
- Arsenal have won 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings, including 6-0 and 5-2 away wins at West Ham.
- West Ham have lost 8 of 17 home matches this season, conceding 29 goals.
- Arsenal's away record is 9 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, with only 15 goals conceded in 17 away games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArsenalEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
West Ham's poor home form and Arsenal's strong away record make a West Ham win unlikely, supporting a double chance for Arsenal or draw.
- West Ham have won only 5 of 17 home matches this season.
- Arsenal have lost only 3 of 17 away matches.
- West Ham's recent form is LWDWL, with only 2 wins in their last 5.
- Arsenal have won 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or ArsenalEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's strong first-half performance and West Ham's vulnerability early in games give Arsenal a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Arsenal lead at half-time in 47% of matches, compared to West Ham's 40%.
- Arsenal have trailed at half-time in only 7% of matches.
- West Ham have trailed at half-time in 20% of home matches.
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, Arsenal led at half-time in 2, with 1 draw and 1 West Ham lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostArsenalEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's superior squad depth and game management could see them edge the second half, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Arsenal have a positive second-half goal difference in away matches (+5).
- West Ham have a negative second-half goal difference at home (-3).
- Arsenal have won the second half in 6 of 17 away matches.
- West Ham have lost the second half in 7 of 17 home matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableArsenalEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Arsenal are favorites, the HT/FT double requires a strong start and sustained performance, which is less certain.
- Arsenal have led at half-time and won the match in 40% of their games.
- West Ham have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 15% of their home games.
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, Arsenal led at half-time and won twice.
- Arsenal's overall win probability is high, but HT/FT doubles are inherently riskier.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableArsenal/ArsenalEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
West Ham's leaky home defense and Arsenal's attacking firepower, combined with high-scoring recent H2H history, point to over 2.5 goals.
- West Ham's home matches average 3.1 total goals (24 scored, 29 conceded in 17 games).
- Arsenal's away matches average 2.5 total goals (27 scored, 15 conceded in 17 games).
- The last 3 H2H meetings at West Ham have seen 6, 7, and 2 goals, averaging 5.0 goals.
- West Ham have conceded 1.3 goals per game overall, but 1.7 per game at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Arsenal's away clean sheet rate is not dominant enough to expect a shutout.
- West Ham have scored in 13 of 17 home matches this season.
- Arsenal have kept only 5 clean sheets in 17 away matches.
- West Ham have scored in 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings.
- Arsenal have scored in all but 2 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's away defensive record is good but not impenetrable, and West Ham's home scoring record suggests they can find the net.
- Arsenal have kept only 5 clean sheets in 17 away matches.
- West Ham have failed to score in only 4 of 17 home matches.
- West Ham have scored in 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings.
- Arsenal's away goals conceded average is 0.88, but they face a West Ham side that scores 1.4 goals per home game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostWest Ham to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and recent H2H matches have seen early goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- West Ham average 0.7 first-half goals per game, with 40% of matches leading at half-time.
- Arsenal average 0.7 first-half goals per game, with 47% of matches leading at half-time.
- In the last 4 H2H meetings, there has been a first-half goal in 3 of them.
- West Ham have conceded 0.4 first-half goals per game, but Arsenal's first-half attack is strong.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends are moderate, but the high-scoring H2H history suggests potential for over 1.5 second-half goals.
- West Ham's matches average 1.3 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Arsenal's matches average 1.0 second-half goals.
- The last 3 H2H meetings at West Ham have seen 4, 5, and 1 second-half goals.
- West Ham have conceded 0.9 second-half goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and recent H2H matches have consistently exceeded 9.5 corners.
- West Ham average 4.7 corners per game, while Arsenal average 5.8.
- West Ham's home matches average 9.4 total corners (4.7 for, 4.7 against).
- Arsenal's away matches average 10.2 total corners (5.8 for, 4.4 against).
- The last 3 H2H meetings at West Ham have seen 8, 12, and 11 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby matches often see increased discipline issues, and West Ham's higher card count could push the total over 3.5.
- West Ham average 2.1 yellow cards per game, Arsenal average 1.1.
- West Ham's home matches average 3.2 total cards (2.1 for, 1.1 against).
- Arsenal's away matches average 2.4 total cards (1.1 for, 1.3 against).
- The last 4 H2H meetings have seen 5, 4, 3, and 2 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-0ArsenalvWest HamOct 4, 2025PL

W0-1ArsenalvWest HamFeb 22, 2025PL

L2-5West HamvArsenalNov 30, 2024PL

L0-6West HamvArsenalFeb 11, 2024PL

W0-2ArsenalvWest HamDec 28, 2023PL

West Ham: 2 clean sheetsArsenal: 2 clean sheets3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	West Ham Relegation - Championship	35	9	9	17	42-61	36	LWDWL
1	Arsenal Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	35	23	7	5	67-26	76	WWLLW

40pt gap between teamsArsenal leads the leagueWest Ham in relegation zone

Recent Form

West Ham

L0-3BrentfordMay 2PL

W2-1EvertonApr 25PL

D0-0Crystal PalaceApr 20PL

W4-0WolvesApr 10PL

L0-2Aston VillaMar 22PL

D1-1Manchester CityMar 14PL

W1-0FulhamMar 4PL

L2-5LiverpoolFeb 28PL

D0-0BournemouthFeb 21PL

D1-1Manchester UnitedFeb 10PL

W2-0BurnleyFeb 7PL

L2-3ChelseaJan 31PL

W3-1SunderlandJan 24PL

W2-1TottenhamJan 17PL

L1-2Nottingham ForestJan 6PL

Arsenal

W1-0Atletico MadridMay 5UEF

W3-0FulhamMay 2PL

D1-1Atletico MadridApr 29UEF

W1-0NewcastleApr 25PL

L1-2Manchester CityApr 19PL

D0-0Sporting CPApr 15UEF

L1-2BournemouthApr 11PL

W1-0Sporting CPApr 7UEF

L1-2SouthamptonApr 4FAC

L0-2Manchester CityMar 22LEA

W2-0Bayer LeverkusenMar 17UEF

W2-0EvertonMar 14PL

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenMar 11UEF

W2-1Mansfield TownMar 7FAC

W1-0BrightonMar 4PL

Squad & Injuries

West Ham

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Arsenal

35 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Arsenal

Over 2.5

Draw or Arsenal

Arsenal

Yes

Over 0.5

Over 9.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

West Ham

Arsenal

Squad & Injuries

West Ham

Arsenal