Parma22 – 3Roma3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Roma's strong H2H dominance and superior attacking output give them a clear edge, though Parma's recent home resilience (unbeaten in last 3 at home) tempers confidence.

• Roma have won the last 3 H2H meetings, outscoring Parma 8-1.
• Parma have only 4 home wins in 17 this season (24%), with 13 goals scored and 22 conceded.
• Roma's away record is 8-1-8, but they have won 3 of their last 5 away matches in all competitions.
• Parma average 0.7 goals per game overall, while Roma average 1.8 goals per game.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance55%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Parma's home form suggests they can avoid defeat, but their inability to beat Roma in recent meetings and Roma's overall quality make a Roma win or draw highly probable.

• Parma have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches (W2 D2 L1).
• Roma have lost 8 of 17 away games this season, but Parma's low win rate (24% at home) makes a home win unlikely.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, Parma have won only once (in 2021).

BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or RomaEstimated chance80%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Roma's ability to push for a result late in games, combined with Parma's defensive lapses after the break, gives Roma an edge in the second half.

• Roma have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
• Parma have lost the second half in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
• Roma score 0.9 second-half goals per game, while Parma concede 0.6 second-half goals per game.
• Roma's superior fitness and depth often lead to stronger second-half performances.

BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableRomaEstimated chance45%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

A pattern of Parma holding on in the first half before Roma's quality prevails in the second half is plausible, but the specific HT/FT combination is rare.

• Parma have drawn at halftime in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
• Roma have won 3 of their last 5 away matches, with 2 of those wins coming after a drawn first half.
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 1 match was a draw at halftime and Roma won at full time.

BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/RomaEstimated chance30%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While overall scoring is low, Roma's ability to score late and Parma's tendency to concede after halftime could push the second half over 1.5 goals, though evidence is mixed.

• Parma's matches average 1.0 second-half goals (0.4 scored, 0.6 conceded).
• Roma's matches average 1.4 second-half goals (0.9 scored, 0.5 conceded).
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
• Roma tend to score more in the second half (0.9 vs 0.9 first half, but with higher variance).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have moderate corner counts, and their combined averages suggest a total under 9.5 corners is likely.

• Parma average 5.1 corners per game, Roma average 5.0 corners per game.
• Parma's home matches average 9.2 total corners (5.1 for, 4.1 against).
• Roma's away matches average 9.4 total corners (5.0 for, 4.4 against).
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 had under 9.5 corners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The disciplinary records of both teams, especially Roma's higher card count on the road, point to a match with over 4.5 cards.

• Parma average 1.5 yellow cards per game, Roma average 1.9 yellow cards per game.
• Parma's home matches average 3.2 cards (1.5 for, 1.7 against).
• Roma's away matches average 4.1 cards (1.9 for, 2.2 against).
• In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 had over 4.5 cards.