BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Stuttgart3Bayer Leverkusen1

HT 2–1Sat 9 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges8–189%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 20–6On targetOn target 9–5CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Recent H2H volatility (4 of 5 meetings with 4+ goals) and both teams' consistent scoring make Over 2.5 goals a high-confidence play, while the draw at 3.80 odds offers a +9-point edge given three draws in the last five meetings.

First-half goals Over 1.5 also presents value at 1.91, supported by early scoring trends.

Context

Karazor is listed as 'Missing Fixture' due to a red card in the injury data.
- He is a regular starter in central midfield, and his absence forces Stuttgart to adjust their defensive structure.
- Stuttgart are also missing defenders Al Dakhil and Jeltsch, further thinning their defensive options.
Xabi Alonso left before the 2025/26 season, and Erik ten Hag was dismissed after two matches, per intel findings.
- Leverkusen's last five away matches: 2W-1D-2L, including a 1-0 loss at Union Berlin and a 3-3 draw at Heidenheim.
- They have conceded in 13 of 16 away league games this season, keeping only three clean sheets.
Last five H2H results: 4-1 Stuttgart, 4-3 Leverkusen, 0-0, 2-2, 2-2.
- Both teams scored in four of those five matches.
- The 0-0 was an outlier; the other four averaged 5.25 total goals per game.
Both teams have 58 points from 32 matches, sitting just inside the Champions League places.
- A loss could drop either side out of the top four with only two games remaining after this.
- Neither team can afford to play for a draw, which aligns with the recent H2H trend of high-scoring matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H dominance of draws, balanced league records, and motivational parity (both chasing Champions League) make a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Stuttgart win, 1 Leverkusen win.
- Stuttgart home record: 11W-3D-2L; Leverkusen away record: 8W-4D-4L.
- Both teams on 58 points, similar form: Stuttgart DDLWL, Leverkusen WWLWW.
- Stuttgart missing 4 players including key midfielder Karazor (red card); Leverkusen missing 2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's strong home form and recent H2H resilience against Leverkusen support a double chance on the home side.
- Stuttgart home: only 2 losses in 16 (11W-3D-2L).
- Leverkusen away: 4 losses in 16 (8W-4D-4L).
- Last 5 H2H: Stuttgart unbeaten in 4 (1W-3D-1L).
- Stuttgart's home defensive solidity: only 15 goals conceded in 16 home games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonStuttgart or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mixed H2H half-time outcomes and similar first-half stats suggest a draw at half-time is a plausible outcome.
- Stuttgart half-time results: 33% lead, 47% trail, 20% draw; Leverkusen: 33% lead, 27% trail, 40% draw.
- Last 5 H2H half-time results: 1 Stuttgart lead, 2 Leverkusen leads, 2 draws.
- Stuttgart first-half goals avg: 1.1 scored, 0.9 conceded; Leverkusen: 0.8 scored, 0.6 conceded.
- Both teams often level at break in recent meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high draw frequency in H2H and balanced league context make Draw/Draw a low-probability but value-supported HT/FT pick.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at half-time, 3 draws at full-time.
- Stuttgart home draws: 3 in 16; Leverkusen away draws: 4 in 16.
- Both teams have drawn 7 of 32 league matches this season.
- Motivational parity: both on 58 points, fighting for Champions League spots.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H volatility and both teams' consistent scoring/conceding patterns strongly support Over 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 4-1, 4-3, 0-0, 2-2, 2-2 – 4 of 5 produced 4+ total goals.
- Stuttgart home avg goals scored 1.69, conceded 0.94; Leverkusen away avg scored 1.81, conceded 1.56.
- Stuttgart last 15: 2.2 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game; Leverkusen last 15: 1.6 scored, 1.4 conceded.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, and H2H history shows frequent BTTS outcomes.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Stuttgart scored in 13 of last 15 matches; Leverkusen scored in 12 of last 15.
- Stuttgart home clean sheets only 4 in 16; Leverkusen away clean sheets only 3 in 16.
- Stuttgart conceded in 12 of last 15; Leverkusen conceded in 11 of last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and H2H first halves often feature goals, making Over 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Stuttgart first-half goals avg: 1.1; Leverkusen first-half goals avg: 0.8.
- Last 5 H2H first-half goals: 1, 2, 0, 1, 1 – 4 of 5 had at least 1 goal, 2 had 2+.
- Stuttgart trailing at half-time in 47% of matches; Leverkusen leading at half-time in 33%.
- Both teams average over 0.8 first-half goals in recent form.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H second halves are consistently high-scoring, and both teams' scoring/conceding patterns support Over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Stuttgart second-half goals avg: 1.1 (2.2 total - 1.1 first half); Leverkusen second-half avg: 0.8 (1.6 - 0.8).
- Last 5 H2H second-half goals: 3, 3, 0, 2, 2 – 4 of 5 had 2+ second-half goals.
- Both teams concede more in second halves: Stuttgart 0.7, Leverkusen 0.8 on average.
- High-scoring H2H trend continues after break.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate consistent corner counts, and H2H history shows frequent high totals, supporting Over 9.5 corners.
- Stuttgart home corners avg: 6.1; Leverkusen away corners avg: 5.8.
- Last 5 H2H corners: 9, 7, 8, 6, 10 – 3 of 5 had 9+ corners.
- Stuttgart last 15 matches: 6.1 corners per game; Leverkusen: 5.8.
- Both teams average over 5.5 corners per game, suggesting combined total often exceeds 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High shot-on-target averages and H2H data indicate a strong likelihood of Over 8.5 shots on target.
- Stuttgart home shots on target avg: 6.3; Leverkusen away shots on target avg: 4.7.
- Combined avg shots on target: 11.0 per match.
- Last 5 H2H shots on target: 14, 13, 6, 9, 11 – 4 of 5 had 9+.
- Both teams rank high in shots on target per game in Bundesliga.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

W1-4Bayer LeverkusenvVfB StuttgartJan 10, 2026BL

W3-4VfB StuttgartvBayer LeverkusenMar 16, 2025BL

D0-0Bayer LeverkusenvVfB StuttgartNov 1, 2024BL

D2-2Bayer LeverkusenvVfB StuttgartAug 17, 2024SUP

D2-2Bayer LeverkusenvVfB StuttgartApr 27, 2024BL

Stuttgart unbeaten in 5 meetings4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Stuttgart UEFA Europa League	32	17	7	8	66-46	58	DDLWL
4	Bayer Leverkusen Champions League	32	17	7	8	66-43	58	WWLWW

Recent Form

Stuttgart

D3-31899 HoffenheimMay 2BL

D1-1Werder BremenApr 26BL

L2-4Bayern MünchenApr 19BL

W4-0Hamburger SVApr 12BL

L0-2Borussia DortmundApr 4BL

W5-2FC AugsburgMar 22BL

L0-2FC PortoMar 19UEF

W1-0RB LeipzigMar 15BL

L1-2FC PortoMar 12UEF

D2-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 7BL

W4-0VfL WolfsburgMar 1BL

L0-1CelticFeb 26UEF

D3-31. FC HeidenheimFeb 22BL

W4-1CelticFeb 19UEF

W3-11. FC KölnFeb 14BL

Bayer Leverkusen

W4-1RB LeipzigMay 2BL

W2-11. FC KölnApr 25BL

L0-2Bayern MünchenApr 22DFB

L1-2FC AugsburgApr 18BL

W1-0Borussia DortmundApr 11BL

W6-3VfL WolfsburgApr 4BL

D3-31. FC HeidenheimMar 21BL

L0-2ArsenalMar 17UEF

D1-1Bayern MünchenMar 14BL

D1-1ArsenalMar 11UEF

D3-3SC FreiburgMar 7BL

W1-0Hamburger SVMar 4BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05Feb 28BL

D0-0Olympiakos PiraeusFeb 24UEF

L0-1Union BerlinFeb 21BL

Squad & Injuries

Stuttgart

8 out

Attackers6

Midfielders4/12

×#45

×#16

×#45

×#16

Defenders4/11

×#2

×#29

×#2

×#29

Goalkeeper4

#2 A. Al Dakhil — Knee Injury

#29 F. Jeltsch — Muscle Injury

#45 L. Jovanovic — Back Injury

#16 A. Karazor — Red Card

#2 A. Al Dakhil — Knee Injury

#29 F. Jeltsch — Muscle Injury

#45 L. Jovanovic — Back Injury

#16 A. Karazor — Red Card

Bayer Leverkusen

4 out

Attackers2/8

×#11

Midfielders9

Defenders2/8

×#21

Goalkeeper5

#21 Lucas — Calf Injury

#11 M. Terrier — Hamstring Injury

#21 Lucas — Calf Injury

#11 M. Terrier — Hamstring Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Draw

Over 9.5

Over 10.5

Over 8.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Stuttgart or Draw

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Stuttgart

Bayer Leverkusen

Squad & Injuries

Stuttgart

Bayer Leverkusen