Premier LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Liverpool1Chelsea1

HT 1–1Sat 9 May 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 8–6On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Liverpool’s strong home form and Chelsea’s dire away run under an interim coach point to a home win, but the best value is in ‘Chelsea Clean Sheet – No’ (85% probability vs.

77.5% implied) and ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ (+7pt edge), driven by consistent second-half scoring in this fixture. Avoid ‘Both Teams to Score’ and ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ at short odds, as they offer negative value despite being likely outcomes.

Context

Rosenior was sacked on April 22, 2026 after a run of five league defeats without a goal.
- Assistant Calum McFarlane took over as interim, but Chelsea have lost all five away league games under his watch, scoring once and conceding 13.
- The club is still searching for a permanent manager, adding uncertainty.
Last five away league results: 0-3 at Brighton, 0-3 at Everton, 1-3 at Manchester City, 0-3 at Arsenal, 0-1 at Newcastle.
- Chelsea have kept no clean sheets in those five away games, conceding 13 goals.
- They have failed to score in four of those five away matches.
Home record: 10 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, 32 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- Liverpool have failed to score in only two home league games this season.
- Last five home league matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 10 goals scored.
Last three league H2H results: 2-1, 3-1, 2-1, all home wins.
- Both teams scored in each of those three matches.
- No team has kept a clean sheet in the last five league meetings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's strong home form (10W-4D-3L) contrasts sharply with Chelsea's collapse away (5 straight league losses, 1GF-13GA), and the H2H pattern of home wins supports a Liverpool victory.
- Liverpool home record: 10W-4D-3L, 32GF-18GA in 17 matches this season.
- Chelsea away record: 7W-4D-6L, 30GF-24GA in 17 matches, but last 5 away league games: 0W-0D-5L, 1GF-13GA.
- Liverpool last 5 home league matches: 3W-1D-1L, 10GF-5GA; Chelsea last 5 away league matches: 0W-0D-5L, 1GF-13GA.
- H2H last 3 league meetings: all home wins, Liverpool won 2-1 at home in Oct 2024.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiverpoolEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's poor away first halves (trailed in 9 of 17) and Liverpool's tendency to start fast at home give the hosts a slight edge, but low confidence due to Liverpool's own inconsistent HT leads.
- Liverpool home first half record: leading at HT in 7 of 17 (41%), trailing in 3 (18%).
- Chelsea away first half record: leading at HT in 5 of 17 (29%), trailing in 9 (53%).
- Liverpool last 5 home league: led at HT in 2, drew 2, trailed 1; Chelsea last 5 away league: led 0, drew 1, trailed 4.
- H2H last 3 league: Liverpool led at HT in 1 of 3 (home win 2-1, HT 1-0).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLiverpoolEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's away collapse pattern (4 of last 5 L/L) and Liverpool's ability to control games at Anfield suggest a possible wire-to-wire win, but Liverpool's own HT/FT inconsistency keeps probability modest.
- Liverpool home HT/FT: W/W in 6 of 17 (35%).
- Chelsea away HT/FT: L/L in 6 of 17 (35%).
- Liverpool last 5 home league: W/W in 2 of 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: L/L in 4 of 5.
- H2H last 3 league: home team led at HT and won in 2 of 3.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableLiverpool/LiverpoolEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liverpool's fortress-like home record (82% unbeaten) and Chelsea's dire away form under interim management make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Liverpool home: lost only 3 of 17 (18%); unbeaten in 14 of 17 (82%).
- Chelsea away: won only 7 of 17 (41%); failed to win in 10 of 17 (59%), including last 5 away league (0W-0D-5L).
- H2H last 3 league: home team won all, but Liverpool at home in that span won 2-1.
- Chelsea's interim manager and 5-match losing streak away severely reduce their win probability.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLiverpool or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Chelsea's recent away scoring drought, the consistent H2H trend of both teams scoring in tight contests and Liverpool's occasional defensive lapses at home make BTTS likely.
- Both teams scored in all 3 recent H2H league meetings (2-1, 3-1, 2-1).
- Liverpool home: BTTS in 10 of 17 home league games (59%); Chelsea away: BTTS in 10 of 17 away league games (59%).
- Liverpool last 5 home league: BTTS in 3 of 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: BTTS in 1 of 5, but that run includes 4 blanks for Chelsea.
- Chelsea scored in 4 of last 5 H2H vs Liverpool.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches heavily trend toward over 2.5 goals, especially Liverpool at home and Chelsea away, and the H2H history reinforces a multi-goal game.
- Last 3 H2H league meetings all had over 2.5 goals (2-1, 3-1, 2-1).
- Liverpool home league matches: 12 of 17 (71%) over 2.5 goals.
- Chelsea away league matches: 12 of 17 (71%) over 2.5 goals.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: 4 of 5 over 2.5; Chelsea last 5 away league: 3 of 5 over 2.5 despite low Chelsea scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's away first halves often see goals (10/17 over 1.5), and Liverpool's home matches can be open early, but recent form shows mixed FH scoring, capping confidence.
- Liverpool home first half goals: 0.9 avg, conceded 0.5; 7 of 17 home games had over 1.5 FH goals.
- Chelsea away first half goals: 0.8 avg, conceded 1.1; 10 of 17 away games had over 1.5 FH goals.
- Last 3 H2H league: FH goals totals were 1, 2, 1.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: FH goals over 1.5 in 2 of 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: FH goals over 1.5 in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in this fixture consistently produce goals, with all recent H2H meetings seeing at least 2 after the break, and both teams' home/away splits support continued SH action.
- Liverpool home second half goals: 1.0 avg, conceded 0.6; 10 of 17 home games had over 1.5 SH goals.
- Chelsea away second half goals: 1.0 avg, conceded 0.6; 9 of 17 away games had over 1.5 SH goals.
- Last 3 H2H league: SH goals totals were 2, 2, 2.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: SH over 1.5 in 4 of 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: SH over 1.5 in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Chelsea concedes early often, their own FH scoring has dried up away (1 goal in last 5 away FH), and Liverpool's home FH clean sheet rate (65% not conceded) points to a lopsided first half.
- Liverpool home FH: scored in 11 of 17 (65%), conceded in 6 of 17 (35%); both scored in 5 of 17 (29%).
- Chelsea away FH: scored in 9 of 17 (53%), conceded in 12 of 17 (71%); both scored in 7 of 17 (41%).
- Last 3 H2H league: both scored in FH in 1 of 3.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: both scored FH in 1 of 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: both scored FH in 1 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Chelsea's recent away scoring woes, Liverpool's modest home clean sheet rate (29%) and Chelsea's historical success finding the net in this fixture suggest the visitors can grab a goal.
- Liverpool home clean sheets: 5 in 17 (29%).
- Chelsea away failed to score: 4 in 17 (24%), but 4 in last 5 away league.
- H2H: Chelsea scored in 4 of last 5 meetings vs Liverpool.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: kept clean sheet in 2 of 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: scored in 1 of 5.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChelsea to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chelsea's away defense is porous (13 goals conceded in last 5 away), and Liverpool almost always score at home, making an away clean sheet extremely unlikely.
- Chelsea away clean sheets: 3 in 17 (18%).
- Liverpool home failed to score: 2 in 17 (12%).
- H2H: Liverpool scored in all last 5 meetings vs Chelsea.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: scored in all 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: kept 0 clean sheets, conceded 13 goals.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLiverpool to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While Chelsea's recent away blanks are stark, Liverpool's overall home win-to-nil rate is low (24%), and the H2H trend of both teams scoring argues against a shutout home win.
- Liverpool home win to nil: 4 in 17 (24%).
- Chelsea away lost to nil: 3 in 17 (18%).
- H2H: Liverpool won to nil vs Chelsea in 0 of last 5 meetings.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: win to nil in 2 of 5; Chelsea last 5 away league: lost to nil in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, especially Chelsea away, and recent H2H meetings consistently hit double-digit totals, making over 9.5 corners a strong play.
- Liverpool home corners avg: 6.1 for, 3.5 against; total avg 9.6.
- Chelsea away corners avg: 6.2 for, 4.1 against; total avg 10.3.
- Last 3 H2H league: total corners 9, 11, 10.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: total corners avg 10.2; Chelsea last 5 away league: total corners avg 10.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages hover around the 3.5 line, and recent H2H meetings consistently hit 4+ cards, but low confidence due to missing referee tendencies and variable recent form.
- Liverpool home yellow cards avg: 1.5; Chelsea away yellow cards avg: 2.1; combined avg 3.6.
- Liverpool last 5 home league: total cards avg 3.2; Chelsea last 5 away league: total cards avg 4.0.
- H2H last 3 league: total cards 4, 5, 4.
- Referee data unavailable, but fixture historically sees moderate discipline.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

L2-1ChelseavLiverpoolOct 4, 2025PL

L3-1ChelseavLiverpoolMay 4, 2025PL

W2-1LiverpoolvChelseaOct 20, 2024PL

W0-1ChelseavLiverpoolFeb 25, 2024LEA

W4-1LiverpoolvChelseaJan 31, 2024PL

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Liverpool Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	35	17	7	11	59-47	58	LWWWL
9	Chelsea	35	13	9	13	54-48	48	LLLLL

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Liverpool

L2-3Manchester UnitedMay 3PL

W3-1Crystal PalaceApr 25PL

W2-1EvertonApr 19PL

L0-2Paris Saint GermainApr 14UEF

W2-0FulhamApr 11PL

L0-2Paris Saint GermainApr 8UEF

L0-4Manchester CityApr 4FAC

L1-2BrightonMar 21PL

W4-0GalatasarayMar 18UEF

D1-1TottenhamMar 15PL

L0-1GalatasarayMar 10UEF

W3-1WolvesMar 6FAC

L1-2WolvesMar 3PL

W5-2West HamFeb 28PL

W1-0Nottingham ForestFeb 22PL

Chelsea

L1-3Nottingham ForestMay 4PL

W1-0LeedsApr 26FAC

L0-3BrightonApr 21PL

L0-1Manchester UnitedApr 18PL

L0-3Manchester CityApr 12PL

W7-0Port ValeApr 4FAC

L0-3EvertonMar 21PL

L0-3Paris Saint GermainMar 17UEF

L0-1NewcastleMar 14PL

L2-5Paris Saint GermainMar 11UEF

W4-1Aston VillaMar 4PL

L1-2ArsenalMar 1PL

D1-1BurnleyFeb 21PL

W4-0Hull CityFeb 13FAC

D2-2LeedsFeb 10PL

Squad & Injuries

Liverpool

35 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Chelsea

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Liverpool

Over 3.5

Liverpool to score

Liverpool or Draw

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 9.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Liverpool

Chelsea

Squad & Injuries

Liverpool

Chelsea