Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Torino2Sassuolo1

HT 0–0Fri 8 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 18–14On targetOn target 4–7CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:16 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring Serie A encounter is expected between Torino and Sassuolo, with under 2.5 goals the standout bet (70% model probability, +15.9pts edge).

First-half under 1.5 goals also offers value, while the full-time result is too close to call with confidence. Avoid the draw-draw HT/FT and under 1.5 total goals markets due to poor risk-reward.

Context

A 06 May 2026 Sports Mole preview calls D'Aversa's impact 'transformational', with 14 points from his first 9 league games.
- Torino's last 5 matches: W-D-D-W-L (8 points), showing continued competitiveness under the new boss.
- The 2-2 home draw with Inter on 26 April demonstrated resilience against a top side.
Sassuolo's last 5 away goals: 0, 1, 1, 2, 0 (avg 0.8).
- They failed to score in 3 of those 5 away games (vs Fiorentina, Juventus, Napoli).
- Torino have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home matches (vs Pisa, Lazio, Lecce).
Last 3 H2H results: 0-1, 1-1, 2-1 – all under 2.5 goals.
- Sassuolo scored only 1 goal in the last 2 H2H meetings.
- Torino lead the overall H2H 14 wins to 6, but recent matches have been decided by fine margins.
Torino home record: 7W-3D-7L, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded.
- Sassuolo away record: 5W-5D-7L, with 5 draws showing resilience on the road.
- Torino's 7 home losses are the joint-most among top-half sides, indicating vulnerability.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show similar mid-table strength with Torino's home inconsistency (7 losses) and Sassuolo's decent away resilience (5 draws) making a stalemate the most balanced outcome, reinforced by recent H2H tightness.
- Torino home record: 7W-3D-7L, 23 goals scored, 26 conceded in 17 home matches
- Sassuolo away record: 5W-5D-7L, 20 goals scored, 21 conceded in 17 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 Torino wins, 1 Sassuolo win; 3 of last 5 ended level or by 1 goal
- Torino form last 5: L-D-D-W-W (8 pts); Sassuolo form last 5: W-D-W-L-W (10 pts)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Torino's home advantage and D'Aversa's positive impact give them a slight edge, but Sassuolo's ability to avoid defeat in 10 of 17 away trips suggests a Torino win or draw is the safer double chance.
- Torino home record: 10 matches without defeat (7W, 3D) vs 7 losses in 17 home games
- Sassuolo away losses: 7 in 17 away matches, but only 5 wins
- H2H at Torino: Torino won 2-1 in Nov 2023, last meeting Sassuolo home 0-1 Torino (Dec 2025)
- Torino under D'Aversa: 14 points from 9 games, transformational impact per intelligence report
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTorino or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Torino's low first-half lead rate (20%) and Sassuolo's high trailing rate (47%) suggest neither side is likely to dominate early, with recent H2H meetings reinforcing a drawn first half.
- Torino half-time results last 5 home: L, D, D, W, D (3 draws)
- Sassuolo half-time results last 5 away: D, L, L, L, D (2 draws, 3 losses)
- Torino leading at half time in only 20% of matches; Sassuolo leading in 40% but trailing in 47%
- Last 3 H2H half-time results: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 (two draws)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Torino's strong second-half showings at home (4 wins in last 5) contrast with Sassuolo's away second-half struggles (3 losses), giving Torino a slight edge to win the second period if the match opens up.
- Torino second half performance last 5 home: W, D, W, W, W (4 wins, 1 draw)
- Sassuolo second half performance last 5 away: L, D, L, W, L (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
- Torino scored 9 second-half goals in last 5 home matches (1.8 per game)
- Sassuolo conceded 5 second-half goals in last 5 away matches (1.0 per game)
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableTorinoEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H trend of low-scoring encounters combined with both teams' moderate attacking output (Torino 1.3 goals/game overall, Sassuolo 1.3) and Sassuolo's particularly blunt away attack (0.8 goals in last 5 away) makes under 2.5 highly probable.
- Last 3 H2H meetings all under 2.5 goals (0-1, 1-1, 2-1)
- Torino home goals per game: 1.35; Sassuolo away goals per game: 1.18
- Torino last 5 home matches: 2, 2, 4, 2, 1 goals scored (avg 2.2, but 3 of 5 under 2.5 total)
- Sassuolo last 5 away matches: 0, 1, 1, 2, 0 goals scored (avg 0.8); 4 of 5 under 2.5 total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's away scoring struggles (3 blanks in last 5) and Torino's recent home defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in last 5) point to at least one side failing to score, aligning with the low-scoring H2H pattern.
- Sassuolo scored only 1 goal in last 2 H2H meetings
- Torino clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home matches (vs Pisa, Lazio, Lecce)
- Sassuolo failed to score in 3 of last 5 away matches (vs Fiorentina, Juventus, Napoli)
- Torino home goals conceded: 26 in 17 (1.53 per game); Sassuolo away goals scored: 20 in 17 (1.18 per game)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters with low first-half scoring averages (Torino 0.4, Sassuolo 0.7 overall) and a clear H2H trend of cagey openings, making under 1.5 first-half goals a strong expectation.
- Torino first half goals average: 0.4 per game overall; at home last 5: 0, 0, 1, 1, 0 (avg 0.4)
- Sassuolo first half goals average: 0.7 per game overall; away last 5: 0, 0, 2, 0, 0 (avg 0.4)
- Torino trailing at half time in 40% of matches; Sassuolo trailing in 47%
- Last 3 H2H first half scores: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 (all under 1.5)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Torino's home second halves have seen more action recently, Sassuolo's away second halves are low-scoring, and H2H history shows exactly 1 second-half goal in each of the last 3 meetings, making over 1.5 a marginal call.
- Torino second half goals: 0.9 per game overall (1.3 total - 0.4 first half); Sassuolo second half: 0.6 (1.3 - 0.7)
- Last 5 Torino home matches second half goals: 2, 2, 3, 1, 1 (avg 1.8)
- Last 5 Sassuolo away matches second half goals: 0, 1, 0, 2, 0 (avg 0.6)
- H2H second half goals last 3: 1, 1, 1 (avg 1.0)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Torino's low corner generation (3.1 per game) and the generally moderate corner counts in recent H2H meetings (avg 9.0) suggest a total under 9.5 corners is likely, though Sassuolo's slightly higher away corner numbers add some risk.
- Torino average corners per game: 3.1 overall, 3.0 at home last 5 (2,5,1,3,6)
- Sassuolo average corners per game: 4.3 overall, 3.8 away last 5 (4,3,4,6,2)
- Combined average corners in Torino home games: 6.1 (Torino 3.0 + opponent 3.1); Sassuolo away: 8.6 (Sassuolo 3.8 + opponent 4.8)
- Last 3 H2H corners: 2-5, 5-5, 6-4 (avg 9.0, but 2 of 3 under 9.5)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2 cards per game, and Sassuolo's away matches see a combined 4.8 cards on average, making over 4.5 total cards a reasonable expectation in a mid-table clash with potential tension.
- Torino average yellow cards: 1.9 per game; last 5 home: 1,1,3,1,4 (avg 2.0)
- Sassuolo average yellow cards: 2.2 per game; last 5 away: 1,3,2,4,3 (avg 2.6)
- Combined average cards in Torino home games: 3.9 (Torino 2.0 + opponent 1.9); Sassuolo away: 4.8 (Sassuolo 2.6 + opponent 2.2)
- Torino fouls per game: 13.9; Sassuolo fouls per game: 11.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-1SassuolovTorinoDec 21, 2025SA

D1-1SassuolovTorinoFeb 10, 2024SA

W2-1TorinovSassuoloNov 6, 2023SA

D1-1SassuolovTorinoApr 3, 2023SA

L0-1TorinovSassuoloSep 17, 2022SA

1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Torino	35	11	8	16	39-58	41	LDDWW
10	Sassuolo	35	14	7	14	43-44	49	WDWLW

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Torino

L0-2UdineseMay 2SA

D2-2InterApr 26SA

D0-0CremoneseApr 19SA

W2-1Hellas VeronaApr 11SA

W1-0PisaApr 5SA

L2-3AC MilanMar 21SA

W4-1ParmaMar 13SA

L1-2NapoliMar 6SA

W2-0LazioMar 1SA

L0-3GenoaFeb 22SA

L1-2BolognaFeb 15SA

D2-2FiorentinaFeb 7SA

L1-2InterFeb 4CI

W1-0LecceFeb 1SA

L0-6ComoJan 24SA

Sassuolo

W2-0AC MilanMay 3SA

D0-0FiorentinaApr 26SA

W2-1ComoApr 17SA

L1-2GenoaApr 12SA

W2-1CagliariApr 4SA

D1-1JuventusMar 21SA

L0-1BolognaMar 15SA

L1-2LazioMar 9SA

W2-1AtalantaMar 1SA

W3-0Hellas VeronaFeb 20SA

W2-1UdineseFeb 15SA

L0-5InterFeb 8SA

W3-1PisaJan 31SA

W1-0CremoneseJan 25SA

L0-1NapoliJan 17SA

Squad & Injuries

Torino

1 out

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Zannetos Savva — Jumpers knee

Sassuolo

32 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Torino or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Torino

Sassuolo

Squad & Injuries

Torino

Sassuolo