Copa LibertadoresFull time

Predictions graded

Mirassol2LDU Quito0

HT 0–0Thu 7 May 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–6On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 7–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 May 2026, 11:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Mirassol's first-leg 2-0 loss came in unique circumstances—their first trip abroad and at altitude—so expect a tighter contest back in Brazil.

The strongest betting value lies in under 2.5 goals (70% estimated probability vs. 59.9% implied) and a drawn first half (55% vs. 47%), while Mirassol's outright win odds are too short given LDU's defensive solidity.

Context

Mirassol confirmed the first leg was the club's first international trip and first match outside Brazil.
- The squad traveled early to acclimatize to Quito's 2,850m altitude, but still lost 2-0.
- At home in Brazil, Mirassol have won both Libertadores group matches without conceding.
Mirassol beat Always Ready 2-0 and Lanus 1-0 at home in the group stage.
- In those two matches, they conceded zero goals and allowed only 18 total shots.
- LDU Quito have failed to score in two of their last five matches overall.
LDU Quito's away record in the group stage: 1-0 win vs Always Ready, 1-0 loss vs Lanus.
- In their last ten matches, LDU Quito have scored more than one goal only twice.
- LDU Quito failed to score in two of their last five matches, including a 0-0 draw with Aucas.
Mirassol average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- LDU Quito average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded.
- The first leg between these teams was 0-0 at halftime.
- In their last five matches, LDU Quito had all five first halves with 0 or 1 goal.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's perfect home record in the group stage (2 wins, 3 goals, 0 conceded) combined with LDU's mixed away form (1 win, 1 loss) gives Mirassol a slight edge, though LDU's defensive solidity keeps the match competitive.
- Mirassol home record in Libertadores group stage: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- LDU Quito away record in Libertadores group stage: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss, 1 goal scored, 1 conceded.
- Mirassol overall form (last 5 matches): 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; LDU Quito overall form (last 5): 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- Mirassol averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in last 10 matches; LDU Quito averaged 0.7 scored and 0.5 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirassolEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's strong home form in the Libertadores (2 wins, no goals conceded) and LDU's vulnerability on the road (1 loss in 2 away games) make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Mirassol home record in Libertadores: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- LDU Quito away record in Libertadores: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss.
- Mirassol has not lost at home in the competition; LDU has lost 1 of 2 away games.
- Mirassol's last 5 home matches across all competitions: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' similar first-half profiles and the low-scoring nature of their matches suggest a drawn first half is the most likely outcome.
- Mirassol led at halftime in 40% of last 10 matches; LDU Quito led in 40%.
- Mirassol first-half results in last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; LDU: 2 wins, 3 draws.
- H2H: first half ended 0-0.
- Both teams average under 1 first-half goal per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half could give way to a Mirassol breakthrough in the second half, leveraging their home advantage, though the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact halftime/fulltime combinations.
- Mirassol has won both home Libertadores matches, but only led at halftime in one of them.
- LDU Quito has drawn 3 of last 5 first halves.
- Mirassol's second-half performance at home: scored 2 of 3 home goals after halftime.
- LDU conceded only 1 away goal in Libertadores, all in second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / MirassolEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong defensive records and low-scoring trends; LDU concedes only 0.5 goals per game on average, and Mirassol's home defense has been perfect in the group stage, pointing to a low-scoring affair.
- Mirassol's last 5 matches: 4 had under 2.5 goals.
- LDU Quito's last 5 matches: all 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Combined average goals per match: Mirassol 1.1 scored + 1.2 conceded = 2.3; LDU 0.7 scored + 0.5 conceded = 1.2.
- H2H: only meeting ended 2-0 (under 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's home defensive solidity (0 goals conceded in group stage) and LDU's overall defensive strength (0.5 goals conceded per game) suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Mirassol kept clean sheets in both home Libertadores matches.
- LDU Quito kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 matches overall.
- LDU Quito failed to score in 2 of last 5 matches.
- H2H: LDU kept a clean sheet against Mirassol (2-0).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's perfect defensive record at home in the group stage and LDU's low scoring output (0.7 goals per game) make a home clean sheet a strong possibility.
- Mirassol kept clean sheets in both home Libertadores matches.
- LDU Quito failed to score in 2 of last 5 matches.
- LDU Quito averaged only 0.7 goals scored in last 10 matches.
- Mirassol conceded only 1.2 goals on average in last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLDU Quito not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, with LDU conceding only 0.2 first-half goals on average, making a low-scoring first half highly probable.
- Mirassol first-half goals: 0.8 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.5.
- LDU Quito first-half goals: 0.5 per game; first-half goals conceded: 0.2.
- In last 5 matches, Mirassol had 3 first halves with 0 or 1 goal; LDU had all 5 first halves with 0 or 1 goal.
- H2H: first half ended 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While average corner counts are around 10-11, the defensive nature of this match and both teams' moderate corner rates suggest a total under 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- Mirassol average corners per game: 5.2; LDU Quito average: 5.4.
- Combined average corners in Mirassol matches: 5.2 + opponent corners (approx 5.2) = ~10.4, but recent trend lower.
- Last 5 Mirassol matches: total corners 6, 13, 16, 7, 13 (avg 11); LDU last 5: 8, 10, 13, 8, 19 (avg 11.6).
- H2H: corner data not available.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's high card accumulation (3.6 per game) and the competitive nature of a Libertadores group stage match make over 4.5 total cards a reasonable expectation.
- Mirassol average yellow cards: 3.6 per game; LDU Quito average: 2.4.
- Mirassol's last 5 matches: yellow cards 5, 4, 2, 5, 4 (avg 4.0); LDU's last 5: 6, 3, 0, 1, 5 (avg 3.0).
- Combined average cards in Mirassol matches: 3.6 + opponent cards (approx 2.5) = ~6.1.
- Copa Libertadores matches often see higher card counts due to intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L2-0LDU de QuitovMirassolApr 15, 2026CON

2 goals/game avg

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Mirassol Copa Sudamericana	3	2	0	1	3-2	6	WLW
1	LDU Quito Playoffs	3	2	0	1	3-1	6	LWW

Recent Form

Mirassol

W2-1CorinthiansMay 3SA

W2-0Always ReadyApr 29CON

L0-1Sao PauloApr 26SA

D1-1RB BragantinoApr 23COP

W2-1InternacionalApr 19SA

L0-2LDU de QuitoApr 15CON

L1-2BahiaApr 11SA

W1-0LanusApr 8CON

L0-1RB BragantinoApr 5SA

L2-3BotafogoApr 1SA

LDU Quito

W1-0Guayaquil City FCMay 2LIG

L0-1LanusApr 28CON

L0-1EmelecApr 25LIG

D0-0AucasApr 23LIG

W2-0Independiente del ValleApr 19LIG

W2-0MirassolApr 15CON

L0-1Delfin SCApr 11LIG

W1-0Always ReadyApr 8CON

L0-2Barcelona SCApr 4LIG

W1-0Manta FCMar 22LIG

Squad & Injuries

Mirassol

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

LDU Quito

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders14

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Mirassol or Draw

Mirassol

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mirassol

LDU Quito

Squad & Injuries

Mirassol

LDU Quito