Primeira LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Sporting Lisbon5Guimaraes1

HT 3–0Mon 4 May 2026, 19:15 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges0–20%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 14–13On targetOn target 10–5CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 May 2026, 16:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Sporting have the stronger motivation and the much better home profile, so they are the likelier winner, but recent head-to-head results argue against treating this as an easy blowout.

The top actionable angle is the first-half under: the slow-start data is stronger than the short home-win prices, which look overvalued rather than attractive.

Context

The May 2 preview says Sporting are battling to secure Champions League qualification, while Guimaraes are already confirmed to miss Europe.
- Sporting start this round 3rd on 73 points. Guimaraes are 7th on 42, so the pressure is much heavier on the home side.
Guimaraes won 2-1 in the Taça da Liga on 6 January 2026, the most recent head-to-head result in the data.
- The supplied head-to-head summary says Sporting have 3 wins in the last 6 meetings, while Guimaraes have 2 wins and 1 draw. This fixture has been competitive rather than one-way.
- The league meeting on 3 January 2025 finished 4-4. This matchup has already shown it can get awkward and loose.
Since 7 April, Sporting have played Arsenal twice, Benfica, Estrela, Porto, AVS and Tondela before this match.
- In their last six matches before this one, Sporting have only one win and four draws. The run has been demanding rather than smooth.
- Sporting played on 26 April and 29 April, then host Guimaraes on 4 May. The turnaround is short again.
Sporting average 60.2% possession and 13.3 shots across their last 10 matches. Their usual game is built on territory and repeat pressure.
- At home in the league, Sporting have scored 43 and conceded 10 in 15 matches. This ground has been a strong base for both control and protection.
- Guimaraes have scored only 12 goals in 15 away league matches. If they spend long periods defending, their attack can dry up.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation and the structural home-away split favor Sporting, while the H2H sample is competitive enough to keep this below high confidence.
- Sporting are 3rd on 73 points with a +55 goal difference after 31 league matches; Guimaraes are 7th on 42 points with a -5 goal difference.
- Sporting's home league record is 11-2-2 with 43 goals scored and 10 conceded in 15 matches.
- Guimaraes' away league record is 4-2-9 with 12 goals scored and 25 conceded in 15 matches.
- The intelligence report dated 2026-05-02 says Sporting still need Champions League qualification points, while Guimaraes are already out of Europe.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSporting LisbonEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The safest result angle is Sporting avoiding defeat because their season-long consistency and home structure clearly outweigh Guimaraes' occasional H2H resistance.
- Sporting have lost only 2 of 31 league matches this season.
- Sporting have avoided defeat in 13 of 15 home league matches.
- Guimaraes have lost 9 of 15 away league matches.
- Sporting are unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSporting Lisbon or DrawEstimated chance87%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's motivation edge and Guimaraes' low early-lead rate make a home-or-level half-time state much more likely than an away lead.
- Sporting have been trailing at half-time in only 20% of their last 10 matches.
- Guimaraes have led at half-time in only 10% of their last 10 matches.
- Sporting's season home record is 11-2-2, indicating regular control even when matches stay close.
- Venue-specific environmental details are unavailable, but the home-away split strongly favors Sporting avoiding an interval deficit.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSporting Lisbon or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Season scoring rates and a generally open H2H history point to at least two goals even if Guimaraes make the match competitive.
- Sporting's home league matches average 3.53 total goals this season, with 43 scored and 10 conceded in 15 matches.
- Guimaraes' away league matches average 2.47 total goals this season, with 12 scored and 25 conceded in 15 matches.
- Four of the last five H2H meetings produced at least 2 total goals.
- Three of Sporting's last five listed matches and four of Guimaraes' last five listed matches reached 2 or more total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The tactical matchup favors sustained Sporting pressure, and the structural home edge gives them a solid route to two home goals.
- Sporting have scored 43 goals in 15 home league matches, a 2.87 per-game rate.
- Guimaraes have conceded 25 goals in 15 away league matches, a 1.67 per-game rate.
- Sporting scored 2 or more goals in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Sporting average 60.2% possession and 13.3 shots over their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSporting Lisbon over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The strongest structural signal is Guimaraes' weak away attack against one of the league's best home defenses, and there is no squad evidence to materially change that baseline.
- Guimaraes have scored only 12 goals in 15 away league matches, 0.80 per game.
- Sporting have conceded only 10 goals in 15 home league matches, 0.67 per game.
- Sporting held Guimaraes to 0 goals in 2 of the last 4 league H2H meetings.
- No injuries or suspensions are reported for either side in the provided squad data.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGuimaraes under 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-half scoring data from both teams points to a cautious opening phase, so the low-scoring first-half angle is better supported than an early shootout.
- Sporting average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded over their last 10 matches.
- Guimaraes average 0.5 first-half goals scored over their last 10 matches.
- Four of Sporting's last five listed matches were level at half-time, with three 0-0 scores.
- First-half H2H goal splits are unavailable in the provided data.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The early-game data shows neither side consistently trading first-half chances, so a first-half BTTS failure is the best-supported half market.
- Sporting's last-10 first-half averages are 0.4 scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Guimaraes' last-10 first-half averages are 0.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Both teams scored in the first half in 0 of Sporting's last 5 listed matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 1 of Guimaraes' last 5 listed matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' split-scoring profiles suggest the match opens up after the break, which is consistent with Sporting's control style and Guimaraes' reactive away posture.
- Sporting score 1.3 goals per match over their last 10, but only 0.4 of those come in first halves.
- Guimaraes score 1.5 goals per match over their last 10, but only 0.5 of those come in first halves.
- Second-half goals occurred in 3 of Sporting's last 5 listed matches.
- Second-half goals occurred in 4 of Guimaraes' last 5 listed matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance76%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The tactical matchup points to Sporting spending long stretches in Guimaraes' half, which supports a workable home-corners floor.
- Sporting average 5.5 corners over their last 10 matches.
- Sporting produced 5 and 9 corners in their last two listed league matches.
- Guimaraes allowed opponents 5 corners to Rio Ave and 10 to Gil Vicente in two of their last three listed matches.
- Sporting average 60.2% possession over their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostSporting Lisbon over 4.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's possession and shot volume give them the tactical edge in sustained chance creation against an away defense that can concede repeat on-target looks.
- Sporting average 4.7 shots on target over their last 10 matches.
- Sporting cleared 4.5 shots on target in 3 of their last 5 listed matches.
- Guimaraes allowed 6 shots on target to Gil Vicente and 4 to Benfica in two of their last three listed away matches.
- Sporting have scored 43 home league goals in 15 matches this season.
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotalwonSporting Lisbon over 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2Sporting CPvGuimaraesJan 6, 2026TAÇ

W1-4GuimaraesvSporting CPDec 23, 2025PRI

L2-0Sporting CPvGuimaraesMay 17, 2025PRI

D4-4GuimaraesvSporting CPJan 3, 2025PRI

L3-0Sporting CPvGuimaraesApr 21, 2024PRI

Guimaraes: 2 clean sheets4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primeira Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Sporting Lisbon Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)	31	22	7	2	77-22	73	DDLWW
7	Guimaraes	31	12	6	13	38-43	42	WWDWL

31pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sporting Lisbon

D2-2TondelaApr 29PRI

D1-1AVSApr 26PRI

D0-0FC PortoApr 22TAÇ

L1-2BenficaApr 19PRI

D0-0ArsenalApr 15UEF

W1-0EstrelaApr 11PRI

L0-1ArsenalApr 7UEF

W4-2Santa ClaraApr 3PRI

W4-1AlvercaMar 22PRI

L0-3Bodo/GlimtMar 11UEF

Guimaraes

W2-0Rio AveApr 25PRI

W1-0GIL VicenteApr 18PRI

D1-1AVSApr 11PRI

W5-0TondelaApr 3PRI

L0-3BenficaMar 21PRI

L1-2FamalicaoMar 14PRI

L0-2Santa ClaraMar 8PRI

D1-1AlvercaFeb 28PRI

L2-3SC BragaFeb 21PRI

W2-1EstrelaFeb 14PRI

Squad & Injuries

Sporting Lisbon

39 available

Attackers8

Midfielders13

Defenders14

Goalkeeper4

Guimaraes

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 1.5

Under 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sporting Lisbon

Guimaraes

Squad & Injuries

Sporting Lisbon

Guimaraes