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Chelsea - Nottingham Forest

🇬🇧 Premier LeagueUpcoming
Monday, May 4, 2026 at 14:00
Quick Take
Chelsea's H2H edge is real, but the live evidence is more important: they are managerless, on a five-game league losing streak, and have not scored in their last three Premier League matches. The best actionable angles are Chelsea under 1.5 team goals and Nottingham Forest or draw, with a cautious first half and a tighter, lower-event game more likely than a convincing Chelsea win.
2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.574%+0.0pp
1 St Half Double ChanceAway or Draw72%+12.0pp
Total Goals HomeUnder 1.5 (Chelsea)67%+21.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Under 3.5:Implied 67.6% is slightly above our 66% estimate, so the under angle is already priced and does not clear the 5-point margin needed for a MEDIUM-confidence edge.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Implied 66.7% sits above our 65% estimate, leaving no cushion on a line that can be broken by one fast start.
Total Goals Home Over 1.5 (Chelsea):Implied 62.5% asks Chelsea for 2+ goals despite our paired Under 1.5 estimate at 67%; three straight league blanks and multiple attacking absences make the over a pricing trap.
Chelsea have the stronger recent head-to-head: they are unbeaten in the last four Premier League meetings with Forest, have taken 10 of the last 12 available points in the fixture, and Forest failed to score in two of the last three meetings. But the current backdrop cuts against a simple Chelsea pick. Chelsea are managerless under interim Calum McFarlane after Liam Rosenior's firing, they have lost five straight league matches, failed to score in their last three Premier League games, and are also carrying off-field noise after the recent financial sanctions case.
Recent Form

Chelsea
W1-0LeedsApr 26FAC
L0-3BrightonApr 21PL
L0-1Manchester UnitedApr 18PL
L0-3Manchester CityApr 12PL
W7-0Port ValeApr 4FAC
L0-3EvertonMar 21PL
L0-3Paris Saint GermainMar 17UEF
L0-1NewcastleMar 14PL
L2-5Paris Saint GermainMar 11UEF
W4-1Aston VillaMar 4PL

Nottingham Forest
W1-0Aston VillaApr 30UEF
W5-0SunderlandApr 24PL
W4-1BurnleyApr 19PL
W1-0FC PortoApr 16UEF
D1-1Aston VillaApr 12PL
D1-1FC PortoApr 9UEF
W3-0TottenhamMar 22PL
D0-0FulhamMar 15PL
L0-1FC MidtjyllandMar 12UEF
D2-2Manchester CityMar 4PL
League Table
Premier League 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chelsea | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 53-45 | 48 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 41-45 | 39 |
9pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
3W · 1D · 1WW0-3Nottingham ForestvChelseaOct 18, 2025PL
W0-1Nottingham ForestvChelseaMay 25, 2025PL
D1-1ChelseavNottingham ForestOct 6, 2024PL
W2-3Nottingham ForestvChelseaMay 11, 2024PL
L0-1ChelseavNottingham ForestSep 2, 2023PL
Chelsea: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Chelsea
12 out L. Colwill — Lacking Match Fitness
#41 — Hamstring Injury
#11 J. Gittens — Muscle Injury
#12 F. Jorgensen — Groin Injury
M. Mudryk — Suspended
#24 R. James — Hamstring Injury
L. Colwill — Lacking Match Fitness
#41 — Hamstring Injury
#11 J. Gittens — Muscle Injury
#12 F. Jorgensen — Groin Injury
M. Mudryk — Suspended
#24 R. James — Hamstring Injury
Nottingham Forest
18 out#30 W. Boly — Knee Injury
#7 C. Hudson-Odoi — Injury
#13 John Victor — Knee Injury
#5 Murillo — Muscle Injury
#37 N. Savona — Knee Injury
#34 O. Aina — Injury
#23 Cunha — Shoulder Injury
#14 D. Ndoye — Injury
#6 I. Sangare — Injury
#30 W. Boly — Knee Injury
#7 C. Hudson-Odoi — Injury
#13 John Victor — Knee Injury
#5 Murillo — Muscle Injury
#37 N. Savona — Knee Injury
#34 O. Aina — Injury
#23 Cunha — Shoulder Injury
#14 D. Ndoye — Injury
#6 I. Sangare — Injury
