BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

St Pauli1Mainz2

HT 0–2Sun 3 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 10–17On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 May 2026, 18:45 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest actionable angle is Mainz or draw, with St Pauli under 1.5 team goals close behind.

The evidence is consistent: St Pauli have not scored in the last three meetings with Mainz, average only 0.6 goals over their last 10 matches, and enter this one with attacking absences, so the better play is to fade their scoring rather than force an outright Mainz win.

Context

St Pauli list attacker R. Jones out with an ankle injury.
- Midfielders M. Pereira Lage (knee) and J. Sands (ankle) are also unavailable for St Pauli.
- Mainz also have absences, including Lee Jae-Sung, B. Hollerbach and Silas, but their squad arrives with more attacking cover overall.
St Pauli are 16th on 26 points after 31 Bundesliga matches.
- Mainz are 11th on 34 points, so the away side arrive with a much larger cushion.
- St Pauli have led at half-time in only 30% of their last 10 matches and trailed in 40%.
Mainz have averaged 12.4 shots and 4.5 shots on target across their last 10 matches.
- In away Bundesliga games at Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen, Mainz produced 9 and 11 shots with only 40% and 34% possession.
- St Pauli's opponents have recorded 12, 10, 20, 16 and 15 shots in their five listed recent matches.
The last three head-to-head results were 0-0, 2-0 Mainz and 3-0 Mainz.
- St Pauli have scored 0 goals across those three meetings.
- Mainz are unbeaten in the last three H2Hs.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mainz get the edge because the H2H pattern and St Pauli's current attacker-midfield absences outweigh the home side's relegation-playoff urgency, with the season home-away splits too even to give St Pauli a strong structural venue edge.
- Bundesliga season to 31 matches: Mainz are 11th on 34 points, while St Pauli are 16th on 26 points.
- Recent H2H, last 3 meetings since Oct 2024: Mainz are unbeaten (2 wins, 1 draw) and St Pauli scored 0 total goals.
- League home/away split this season: St Pauli at home are 4-5-6, while Mainz away are 4-5-6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMainzEstimated chance46%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mainz avoiding defeat is supported by the H2H psychology, St Pauli's weak recent attack, and a home-away split that does not give St Pauli enough structural edge despite the stronger home motivation signal.
- Bundesliga table context: St Pauli sit on the relegation-playoff line with 26 points, while Mainz have 34 points.
- Last 3 H2Hs since Oct 2024: Mainz are unbeaten (2W, 1D) and St Pauli scored 0 goals.
- St Pauli last-10 form average: 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMainz or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mainz or draw at the break is supported by St Pauli's weak early scoring pattern, Mainz's steadier first-half profile, and the H2H block on St Pauli chance creation.
- St Pauli last-10 half-time split: 30% leading, 30% level, 40% trailing.
- Mainz last-10 half-time split: 30% leading, 50% level, 20% trailing.
- Recent H2H since Oct 2024: St Pauli scored 0 total goals across 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMainz or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A low St Pauli team total is driven by H2H scoring blockage, current absences through the front and midfield, and a shot profile too weak to trust the relegation pressure to translate into multiple goals.
- St Pauli last-10 form average: 0.6 goals, 9.7 shots, and 2.9 shots on target.
- Bundesliga home split this season: St Pauli have scored 15 goals in 15 home matches.
- Last 3 H2Hs since Oct 2024: St Pauli scored 0 goals total.
- Current unavailable list: attacker R. Jones plus midfielders M. Pereira Lage and J. Sands are out.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSt Pauli under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mainz should create at least one goal because the tactical shot-volume edge and St Pauli's weak home defensive split outweigh Mainz's lower-stakes motivation profile and some away attacking absences.
- Mainz last-10 form average: 1.4 goals, 12.4 shots, and 4.5 shots on target.
- St Pauli last-10 form average: 1.8 goals conceded.
- Bundesliga home split this season: St Pauli have conceded 26 goals in 15 home matches.
- Last 3 H2Hs since Oct 2024: Mainz scored 5 goals and stayed unbeaten.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMainz over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The strongest path is one or zero St Pauli goals because H2H psychology, attacking injuries, and weak recent output all point against both sides scoring.
- Last 3 H2Hs since Oct 2024: all 3 finished with St Pauli failing to score.
- St Pauli last-10 form average: 0.6 goals scored.
- Bundesliga season: St Pauli have 26 goals in 31 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The ceiling stays moderate because St Pauli rarely drive totals upward and Mainz's H2H control has kept these meetings below four goals, and no dated recent-match list is available for a 21-day fatigue adjustment.
- Last 3 H2Hs since Oct 2024 ended with 0, 2, and 3 total goals.
- St Pauli last-10 form window averages 2.4 total match goals.
- Bundesliga away split this season: Mainz away matches average 3.07 total goals (19 scored, 27 conceded in 15).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
An under 1.5 first half fits the structural pattern of slow St Pauli starts and a matchup where the home side's pressure is more likely to produce caution than early shot quality.
- St Pauli last-10 first-half averages: 0.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Mainz last-10 first-half averages: 0.8 goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- St Pauli led at half-time only 30% of the time in the last-10 form sample.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring before the break looks unlikely because St Pauli rarely land early attacks, and the H2H pattern shows Mainz have consistently suppressed their first line of threat.
- St Pauli last-10 first-half scoring average is 0.3 goals.
- Mainz last-10 first-half conceding average is 0.5 goals.
- Last 3 H2Hs since Oct 2024: St Pauli scored 0 goals across the full 270 minutes.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A second-half goal is favored because St Pauli's stakes should force the game open after the break, and both teams' scoring profiles leave more goals for the second half than the first.
- St Pauli last-10 matches average 2.4 total goals, with 0.8 of those in the first half.
- Mainz last-10 matches average 2.6 total goals, with 1.3 of those in the first half.
- St Pauli are 16th with 26 points after 31 matches, so the relegation battle raises late-game chase risk.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance76%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mainz's tactical edge in shot generation against a low-possession St Pauli side should translate into double-digit attempts, especially with the home team likely defending deeper under result pressure.
- Mainz last-10 form average: 12.4 total shots and 4.5 shots on target.
- In St Pauli's 5 listed recent matches, opponents attempted 12, 10, 20, 16, and 15 shots.
- Bundesliga away split this season: Mainz have scored 19 goals in 15 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Shots TotalwonMainz over 9.5Estimated chance71%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D0-0FSV Mainz 05vFC St. PauliDec 21, 2025BL

L2-0FSV Mainz 05vFC St. PauliFeb 22, 2025BL

W0-3FC St. PaulivFSV Mainz 05Oct 5, 2024BL

L2-1FSV Mainz 05vFC St. PauliMay 14, 2011BL

W2-4FC St. PaulivFSV Mainz 05Dec 18, 2010BL

St Pauli: 2 clean sheetsMainz: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	St Pauli Relegation Playoffs	31	6	8	17	26-53	26	LDLDL
11	Mainz	31	8	10	13	39-49	34	LDLWW

8pt gap between teamsSt Pauli in relegation zone

Recent Form

St Pauli

L0-21. FC HeidenheimApr 25BL

D1-11. FC KölnApr 17BL

L0-5Bayern MünchenApr 11BL

D1-1Union BerlinApr 5BL

L1-2SC FreiburgMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia MönchengladbachMar 13BL

D0-0Eintracht FrankfurtMar 8BL

W1-01899 HoffenheimFeb 28BL

W2-1Werder BremenFeb 22BL

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenFeb 14BL

Mainz

L3-4Bayern MünchenApr 25BL

D1-1Borussia MönchengladbachApr 19BL

L0-4StrasbourgApr 16UEF

L0-1SC FreiburgApr 12BL

W2-0StrasbourgApr 9UEF

W2-11899 HoffenheimApr 4BL

W2-1Eintracht FrankfurtMar 22BL

W2-0Sigma OlomoucMar 19UEF

W2-0Werder BremenMar 15BL

D0-0Sigma OlomoucMar 12UEF

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

6 out

Attackers2/8

×#26

Midfielders4/8

×#28

×#6

×#28

×#6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#28 M. Pereira Lage — Knee Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#28 M. Pereira Lage — Knee Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

Mainz

10 out

Attackers4/8

×#17

×#26

×#17

×#26

Midfielders2/10

×#7

Defenders2/9

×#5

Goalkeeper4

M. Dal — Knee Injury

#17 B. Hollerbach — Achilles Tendon Injury

#7 Lee Jae-Sung — Toe Injury

#5 M. Leitsch — Thigh Injury

#26 Silas — Broken shinbone

M. Dal — Knee Injury

#17 B. Hollerbach — Achilles Tendon Injury

#7 Lee Jae-Sung — Toe Injury

#5 M. Leitsch — Thigh Injury

#26 Silas — Broken shinbone

St Pauli1Mainz2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Mainz

Under 1.5

No

Draw or Mainz

No

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Pauli

Mainz

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

Mainz