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Paris FC - Brest
🇫🇷 Ligue 1Upcoming
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 15:15
Quick Take
The likely match script is tight and fairly low-scoring, with Paris FC slightly better placed to avoid defeat thanks to stronger recent form and Brest's weak away attack. The top actionable angle is cards over 3.5 for value, with over 0.5 second-half goals the cleaner secondary play; the obvious low-total and double-chance markets look priced too aggressively.
2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.582%+2.0pp
Cards Over/UnderOver 3.576%+30.5pp
Total Goals HomeOver 0.5 (Paris FC)75%-8.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Under 3.5:Implied 74.1% already sits 10 points above our 64% estimate, so the short under price offers no cushion even before the bookmaker margin.
Total Goals Away Under 1.5:Implied 73.5% is well above our 64% estimate, and one Brest transition goal leaves too little margin on an already expensive line.
1st Half Both Teams to Score No:Implied 83.3% is 16 points above our 67% estimate, so the market has overcharged the slow-start angle despite favorable first-half data.
This looks more like a match about shape than side. The strongest evidence points to a controlled, relatively low-scoring game: 8 of the 9-match head-to-head sample finished under 2.5 goals, and the last five listed meetings produced only 3, 1, 2, 1 and 2 total goals. With both teams sitting on 38 points and already 13 clear of the relegation line as of 2026-05-02, there is also less data support for an all-out, must-win tempo.
Paris FC still have the cleaner recent profile. They come in on a LWWDW run, while Brest are DDLLL and have gone 3-4-8 away in Ligue 1.
Recent Form
Paris FC
L0-1LilleApr 26L1
W3-1MetzApr 19L1
W4-1MonacoApr 10L1
D1-1LorientApr 5L1
W3-2Le HavreMar 22L1
D0-0StrasbourgMar 15L1
D1-1LyonMar 8L1
W1-0NiceMar 1L1
D1-1ToulouseFeb 21L1
L0-5LensFeb 14L1
Brest
D3-3LensApr 24L1
D1-1NantesApr 19L1
L3-4RennesApr 4L1
L0-3AuxerreMar 21L1
L0-2MonacoMar 14L1
W2-0Le HavreMar 8L1
W1-0MetzMar 1L1
W2-0MarseilleFeb 20L1
D1-1LilleFeb 14L1
W2-0LorientFeb 7L1
League Table
Ligue 1 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Paris FC | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 40-47 | 38 |
| 11 | Brest | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 41-47 | 38 |
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 2WW1-2Stade Brestois 29vParis FCSep 14, 2025L1
L0-1Paris FCvStade Brestois 29Jan 21, 2019LIG
D1-1Stade Brestois 29vParis FCAug 10, 2018LIG
L0-1Paris FCvStade Brestois 29Feb 24, 2018LIG
D1-1Stade Brestois 29vParis FCSep 22, 2017LIG
Brest: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Paris FC
8 out S. Alakouch — Injury
#29 P. Hamel — Calf Injury
#33 P. Lees-Melou — Red Card
#20 J. Lopez — Back Injury
S. Alakouch — Injury
#29 P. Hamel — Calf Injury
#33 P. Lees-Melou — Red Card
#20 J. Lopez — Back Injury
Brest
8 out#27 D. Guindo — Yellow Cards
#2 B. Locko — Muscle Injury
#17 M. Balde — Groin Injury
#23 K. Doumbia — Injury
#27 D. Guindo — Yellow Cards
#2 B. Locko — Muscle Injury
#17 M. Balde — Groin Injury
#23 K. Doumbia — Injury