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Getafe - Rayo Vallecano
🇪🇸 La LigaUpcoming
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 14:15
Quick Take
This looks like another low-event Getafe-Rayo meeting: all five recent H2Hs finished with two goals or fewer, and both teams' current scoring baselines still support Under 2.5 as the most likely outcome. The sharper value, though, is Over 5.5 cards, with the discipline data pointing to a far more combative game than the price suggests.
Total Goals AwayUnder 1.5 (Rayo Vallecano)86%+0.5pp
Cards Over/UnderOver 5.579%+30.2pp
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.574%+5.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Under 3.5:The under lean is right, but 1.15 implies 87.0% and leaves too little return for a match carrying defensive suspensions and normal derby variance.
Total Goals Home Under 1.5 (Getafe):Implied 66.7% is above our 65% base estimate, and Rayo's volatile away defending can still concede twice from limited Getafe volume.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Implied 80.0% leaves no 5-point cushion versus our 67% predictor call, so one early set piece turns a slow-start read into a bad price.
Getafe come into this with the clearer league incentive. They are 6th on 44 points after 33 matches, level with 7th-placed Celta, while Rayo sit 11th on 39 points and are only five points above 18th. The current intel also points to relative calm on the home side, with Jose Bordalas on 2026-05-01 framing the season in stable terms rather than creating uncertainty around his future. Rayo, by contrast, have a Europa Conference League trip to Strasbourg on 2026-05-08, which adds a plausible energy-management angle around this spot.
Recent Form
Getafe
L0-2BarcelonaApr 25LL
W1-0Real SociedadApr 22LL
L0-1LevanteApr 13LL
W2-0Athletic ClubApr 5LL
W2-1EspanyolMar 21LL
L0-1Atletico MadridMar 14LL
W2-0Real BetisMar 8LL
W1-0Real MadridMar 2LL
L0-1SevillaFeb 22LL
W2-1VillarrealFeb 14LL
Rayo Vallecano
W1-0StrasbourgApr 30UEF
D3-3Real SociedadApr 26LL
W1-0EspanyolApr 23LL
L1-3AEK Athens FCApr 16UEF
L0-3MallorcaApr 12LL
W3-0AEK Athens FCApr 9UEF
W1-0ElcheApr 3LL
L0-1BarcelonaMar 22LL
L0-1SamsunsporMar 19UEF
D1-1LevanteMar 16LL
League Table
La Liga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Getafe Promotion - Conference League (Qualification) | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 28-34 | 44 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 33-41 | 39 |
5pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
0W · 3D · 2WD1-1Rayo VallecanovGetafeJan 2, 2026LL
L1-0Rayo VallecanovGetafeMay 2, 2025LL
D0-0GetafevRayo VallecanoAug 24, 2024LL
D0-0Rayo VallecanovGetafeApr 13, 2024LL
L0-2GetafevRayo VallecanoJan 2, 2024LL
Rayo Vallecano unbeaten in 5 meetingsGetafe: 2 clean sheetsRayo Vallecano: 4 clean sheets1 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Getafe
10 out#2 Djene — Yellow Cards
#7 Juanmi — Injury
#6 M. Martin — Yellow Cards
#24 Z. Romero — Red Card
#9 B. Mayoral — Knee Injury
#2 Djene — Yellow Cards
#7 Juanmi — Injury
#6 M. Martin — Yellow Cards
#24 Z. Romero — Red Card
#9 B. Mayoral — Knee Injury
Rayo Vallecano
12 out#18 A. Garcia — Muscle Injury
#5 Luiz Felipe — Injury
D. Mendez — Knee Injury
#7 I. Palazon — Red Card
#11 R. Nteka — Injury
#23 O. Valentin — Face Injury
#18 A. Garcia — Muscle Injury
#5 Luiz Felipe — Injury
D. Mendez — Knee Injury
#7 I. Palazon — Red Card
#11 R. Nteka — Injury
#23 O. Valentin — Face Injury