Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation and H2H psychology lean Bournemouth, and although exact venue conditions are unavailable, the hosts' strong home non-loss split with no injury disadvantage makes a Palace win the less likely result.
- Bournemouth lost only 2 of 17 home league matches in 2025/26 (6W, 9D, 2L).
- Last 5 H2Hs since Dec 2023: Bournemouth 2 wins, 3 draws, Crystal Palace 0 wins.
- Table on 1 May: Bournemouth are 7th on 49 points; Palace are 13th on 43, and match context says Bournemouth are still chasing Europe.
- Pre-match squad report lists no injuries for either side.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBournemouth or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology strongly suppresses Palace's scoring profile, and Bournemouth's home defensive baseline plus no reported defensive absences make an away two-goal game less likely.
- Crystal Palace failed to score in 4 of the last 5 H2Hs with Bournemouth, period Dec 2023 to Oct 2025.
- Bournemouth have conceded 19 goals in 17 home league matches this season, 1.12 per home game.
- Crystal Palace have scored 36 goals in 33 league matches this season, 1.09 per game.
- No injuries or suspensions are listed for Bournemouth pre-match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCrystal Palace under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H pattern and both teams' season-long goal totals point to a controlled game rather than a shootout, with no injury signal forcing a major change in attacking output.
- 4 of the last 5 H2Hs since Dec 2023 finished under 3.5 total goals.
- Bournemouth home league matches average 2.59 total goals this season, from 25 scored and 19 conceded in 17 games.
- Crystal Palace away league matches average 2.50 total goals this season, from 20 scored and 20 conceded in 16 games.
- Last-10 averages: Bournemouth 1.2 scored and 0.9 conceded; Palace 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bournemouth's slow-start profile is the clearest tactical-tempo signal available, and with the bigger stakes sitting on the home side, a careful opening is more likely than a two-goal first half.
- Bournemouth average 0.2 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded across their last 10 matches.
- 4 of Bournemouth's last 5 shown matches were level at halftime, including three 0-0 halftime scores.
- Crystal Palace average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded across their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance69%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Detailed shape data is unavailable, but Bournemouth's superior territory indicators and home control profile give them the clearer tactical matchup edge for corners.
- Bournemouth average 5.9 corners across their last 10 matches.
- Bournemouth cleared 4.5 corners in 3 of their last 5 shown matches, including 12 vs Leeds and 6 vs Manchester United.
- Crystal Palace average 3.7 corners across their last 10, but allowed 13 to Shakhtar, 6 to West Ham, and 6 to Fiorentina in 3 of their last 5 shown matches.
- Bournemouth average 53.9% possession over the last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Home CornerswonBournemouth over 4.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even without formation-level tactical data, Bournemouth's shot-volume edge and stronger motivation suggest they should spend enough time on the front foot to clear a modest home shots line.
- Bournemouth average 15.0 shots across their last 10 matches.
- Bournemouth produced 12, 17, 16, and 22 shots in 4 of their last 5 shown matches.
- Crystal Palace faced 15 shots from Shakhtar, 16 from Fiorentina, and 15 from Liverpool in 3 of their last 5 shown matches.
- Table context on 1 May: Bournemouth still occupy the Conference League playoff spot.
BetBugs · Home Shots TotalwonBournemouth over 11.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With no reported attacking absences and Bournemouth consistently generating on-target volume, the home side's territorial and motivational edge should translate into at least three shots on target.
- Bournemouth average 4.6 shots on target across their last 10 matches.
- Bournemouth recorded 3, 3, 3, 5, and 7 shots on target in their last 5 shown matches.
- Crystal Palace allowed at least 3 shots on target in 4 of their last 5 shown matches across all competitions.
- Pre-match squad report lists no attacking absences for Bournemouth.
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotalwonBournemouth over 2.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary baseline is already above this line, and Bournemouth's higher-stakes situation increases the chance of a more combative match rather than a low-contact one.
- Combined last-10 yellow-card averages are 4.1 per match, Bournemouth 2.3 and Crystal Palace 1.8.
- Combined last-10 foul averages are 23.7 per match, Bournemouth 10.5 and Crystal Palace 13.2.
- Crystal Palace saw 2 or more yellow cards in 4 of their last 5 shown matches; Bournemouth did the same in 4 of their last 5 shown matches.
- Table context on 1 May keeps Bournemouth in the European race, raising the home-side stakes.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance67%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Bournemouth3Crystal Palace0

Quick Take

Context

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Under 3.5

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Goals2 of 3 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bournemouth

Crystal Palace

Squad & Injuries

Bournemouth

Crystal Palace

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Bournemouth Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)	34	11	16	7	52-52	49	DWWDD
13	Crystal Palace	33	11	10	12	36-39	43	LDWDW