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Bologna - Cagliari

🇮🇹 Serie AFinished
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 10:30
Quick Take
The most likely script is Bologna controlling a low-event match without necessarily turning that into a big score. Under 3.5 goals is the clearest actionable edge, while BTTS No is the more aggressive value play; Bologna result markets look more logical than attractive at the current prices.
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.579%+1.5pp
Both Teams To ScoreNo60%+5.4pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Double Chance Home or Draw:Implied 82% leaves no cushion versus our 72% 1X estimate; Bologna's H2H edge and Cagliari's poor away record are already fully priced in.
Match Winner Home (Bologna):Implied 55% is above our 51% home-win estimate, and Bologna's 6-2-9 home league split makes the outright price too aggressive.
Handicap Result Home -1 (Bologna):Bologna average only 0.8 goals across their last 10 matches and this 3-way handicap is punished by the very plausible one-goal home win.
Recent evidence points to a controlled Bologna script more than an open game. Bologna have won five of the last six meetings with Cagliari, including the last three, and the intel notes five straight Bologna home wins in this fixture. Cagliari were also held scoreless in two of the last three head-to-heads, which strengthens the case for another game where Bologna dictate the terms.
The underlying numbers support that control angle, but they do not make this a clean home-win spot. Bologna's recent sample shows 56.1% possession and 13.6 shots per match against Cagliari's 45.
Recent Form

Bologna
L0-2AS RomaApr 25SA
L0-2JuventusApr 19SA
L0-4Aston VillaApr 16UEF
W2-0LecceApr 12SA
L1-3Aston VillaApr 9UEF
W2-1CremoneseApr 5SA
L0-2LazioMar 22SA
W1-0SassuoloMar 15SA
D1-1AS RomaMar 12UEF
L1-2Hellas VeronaMar 8SA

Cagliari
W3-2AtalantaApr 27SA
L0-3InterApr 17SA
W1-0CremoneseApr 11SA
L1-2SassuoloApr 4SA
L0-1NapoliMar 20SA
L1-3PisaMar 15SA
L1-2ComoMar 7SA
D1-1ParmaFeb 27SA
D0-0LazioFeb 21SA
L0-2LecceFeb 16SA
League Table
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bologna | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 42-41 | 48 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 36-49 | 36 |
12pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
4W · 0D · 1WW0-2CagliarivBolognaOct 19, 2025SA
W2-1BolognavCagliariMar 2, 2025SA
W0-2CagliarivBolognaOct 29, 2024SA
L2-1CagliarivBolognaJan 14, 2024SA
W2-1BolognavCagliariSep 2, 2023SA
Bologna: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg
