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Auxerre - Angers

🇫🇷 Ligue 1Upcoming
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 15:15
Quick Take
This match sets up as another cagey Auxerre-Angers meeting, with four straight league head-to-heads finishing 1-0 or 2-0 and Angers bringing one of the weakest away attacks in the profile. The top actionable angle is BTTS No, with Under 2.5 also appealing; Auxerre or Draw is a reasonable football lean, but the price on Auxerre safety markets looks too compressed.
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.573%+0.0pp
Both Teams To ScoreNo69%+10.2pp
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.567%+8.2pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Total Goals Home Over 0.5 (Auxerre):Implied 84.7% is far above our 68% estimate, so the obvious home-goal angle is already overtaxed.
1st Half Both Teams to Score No:Implied 88.5% leaves no cushion versus our 81% estimate, and the hold is too heavy for such a short first-half price.
Goals Over/Under Under 3.5:The safer-looking under is priced at 80.0% implied, so you give away the margin that actually exists on Under 2.5.
Auxerre come into this with real pressure on them. Recent web intel describes this as a last-chance survival spot, with Auxerre sitting in the bottom three and still chasing safety, so the motivational edge is clearly on the home side. What makes the fixture especially interesting is how repetitive the recent pattern has been: the last four league meetings since February 2024 finished 2-0, 2-0, 1-0 and 1-0, with one team keeping a clean sheet every time.
The numbers support another low-event game. Auxerre home league matches are averaging only 1.
Recent Form

Auxerre
L2-3LyonApr 25L1
D2-2MonacoApr 19L1
D0-0NantesApr 11L1
D1-1Le HavreApr 5L1
W3-0Stade Brestois 29Mar 21L1
L0-1MarseilleMar 13L1
D0-0StrasbourgMar 7L1
D2-2LorientMar 1L1
L0-3RennesFeb 22L1
W3-1MetzFeb 15L1

Angers
L0-3Paris Saint GermainApr 25L1
D1-1Le HavreApr 18L1
L1-2RennesApr 11L1
D0-0LyonApr 5L1
L1-5LensMar 20L1
L0-2NiceMar 14L1
W1-0NantesMar 7L1
L0-2MonacoFeb 28L1
L0-1LilleFeb 22L1
L0-2LorientFeb 15L1
League Table
Ligue 1 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | AuxerreRelegation Playoffs | 31 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 27-42 | 25 |
| 13 | Angers | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26-43 | 34 |
9pt gap between teamsAuxerre in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
2W · 1D · 2WL2-0AngersvAuxerreNov 9, 2025L1
L2-0AngersvAuxerreJan 19, 2025L1
W1-0AuxerrevAngersNov 24, 2024L1
W1-0AuxerrevAngersFeb 10, 2024LIG
D2-2AngersvAuxerreAug 19, 2023LIG
Auxerre: 2 clean sheetsAngers: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Auxerre
10 out N. Buayi-Kiala — Knee Injury
#17 O. El Azzouzi — Knee Injury
#16 D. Leon — Thigh Injury
#22 F. Oppegard — Injury
#28 R. Faivre — Injury
N. Buayi-Kiala — Knee Injury
#17 O. El Azzouzi — Knee Injury
#16 D. Leon — Thigh Injury
#22 F. Oppegard — Injury
#28 R. Faivre — Injury
Angers
8 out#14 Y. Belkhdim — Arm Injury
#5 M. Courcoul — Injury
#31 H. Djibirin — Injury
#2 C. Arcus — Groin Injury
#14 Y. Belkhdim — Arm Injury
#5 M. Courcoul — Injury
#31 H. Djibirin — Injury
#2 C. Arcus — Groin Injury
