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Villarreal - Levante
🇪🇸 La LigaFinished
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 12:00
Finished Snapshot
FT5-1
FinishedSettled
Halftime
1-0
Predictions
7W · 4L · 0P
Edges
2W · 3L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
53%-47%
Shots
20-12
Shots on Target
8-3
Corners
7-3
Quick Take
Villarreal should win (81% home record, 63% H2H), but manager Marcelino's confirmed exit creates lame-duck risk; Levante's survival desperation and high-contact tactics (14.1 fouls/game) suggest a compressed scoreline. Best value: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 (85% vs 82% implied) and Under 2.5 @ 2.30 (52% vs 43.5% implied).
Double ChanceVillarreal or Draw85%+3.0pp
Goals Over/UnderOver 1.575%-9.7pp
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.552%+8.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Double Chance Draw or Levante:Market implies 46.5% but predictor estimates only 15% (inverse of 85% 1X estimate); massive overpricing on Levante non-loss given their 19% away record and Villarreal's 81% home win rate.
Match Winner Levante @ 4.33:Implied 23.1% for away win vs Levante's 19% away record and Villarreal's 81% home record; market is overpricing Levante's upset chances even with survival motivation and managerial distraction.
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:At 1.57 odds (63.7% implied), the Over 2.5 leaves minimal cushion against the predictor's borderline Under 2.5 estimate (48%); vig is standard but the directional conviction is weak given Levante's defensive intent and Villarreal's managerial uncertainty. Safer to target the Under.
Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Villarreal enters this clash as heavy favorites, backed by compelling fundamentals: an 81% home win rate (13-1-2 in 16 La Liga matches), a devastating 63% career H2H advantage (23-9-4 across 36 meetings), and a 32-point league table gap over struggling Levante. Their home attacking prowess—2.25 goals per game—should overwhelm Levante's porous away defense, which concedes 1.5 goals per match. However, a critical distraction lurks beneath the surface.
Recent Form
Villarreal
W2-1Celta VigoApr 26LL
D1-1OviedoApr 23LL
W2-1Athletic ClubApr 12LL
L0-1GironaApr 6LL
W3-1Real SociedadMar 20LL
D1-1AlavesMar 13LL
W2-1ElcheMar 8LL
L1-4BarcelonaFeb 28LL
W2-1ValenciaFeb 22LL
W1-0LevanteFeb 18LL
Levante
D0-0EspanyolApr 27LL
W2-0SevillaApr 23LL
W1-0GetafeApr 13LL
L0-2Real SociedadApr 4LL
W4-2OviedoMar 21LL
D1-1Rayo VallecanoMar 16LL
D1-1GironaMar 7LL
W2-0AlavesFeb 27LL
L0-3BarcelonaFeb 22LL
L0-1VillarrealFeb 18LL
League Table
La Liga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Villarreal Promotion - Champions League (League phase) | 33 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 59-38 | 65 |
| 19 | Levante Relegation - LaLiga2 | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 37-50 | 33 |
32pt gap between teamsLevante in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
3W · 1D · 1WW0-1LevantevVillarrealFeb 18, 2026LL
D0-0VillarrealvLevanteAug 19, 2023FRI
W3-1VillarrealvLevanteAug 3, 2022FRI
L2-0LevantevVillarrealApr 2, 2022LL
W5-0VillarrealvLevanteJan 3, 2022LL
Villarreal: 3 clean sheetsLevante: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg