Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frankfurt's home structural edge (7W in 15) combined with Hamburg's catastrophic away record (2W in 15, 2.0 GA/game away) and Hamburg's dire form (LLLDL) gives Frankfurt clear advantage despite their own inconsistent form.
- Frankfurt home record: 7W-3D-5L, 26 GF / 23 GA in 15 home matches (2025/26 Bundesliga)
- Hamburg away record: 2W-4D-9L, 12 GF / 30 GA in 15 away matches — worst away attack in dataset
- Frankfurt avg 59.1% possession (last 10), Hamburg avg 43.1% — 16% possession gap favors hosts
- Hamburg form: LLLDL in last 5, conceding 1.9 goals/game avg over last 10
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEintracht FrankfurtEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hamburg's 13% away win rate (2W in 15) combined with their dire overall form (0W in last 5) makes an away victory extremely unlikely; Frankfurt's 67% home unbeaten rate strongly supports the home DC.
- Hamburg away: only 2 wins in 15 away matches (13% win rate on the road)
- Hamburg form: LLLDL — zero wins in last 5 matches
- Frankfurt home: 10 of 15 home matches unbeaten (7W-3D)
- Hamburg 5 points above relegation — pressure may cause cautious/anxious play away
BetBugs · Double ChancelostEintracht Frankfurt or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frankfurt's leaky defense (58 GA in 31 league games, negative GD despite being 7th) combined with Hamburg's ability to find the net even in defeats makes BTTS the strongest statistical signal in this match.
- Frankfurt's last 5 matches: BTTS hit in all 5 (scores: 1-1, 1-3, 2-1, 2-2, 1-2)
- Frankfurt concede 1.2 goals/game avg (last 10) and 1.53 GA/game at home (23 in 15)
- Hamburg scored in 4 of last 5 matches despite losing; scored in 8 of 10 recent matches
- H2H avg 2.79 goals/match over 33 meetings; most recent meeting was 1-1
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches trend heavily toward 3+ goal outcomes (8 of last 10 combined), supported by Frankfurt's high shots volume (13.3/game) against Hamburg's poor defensive away record (2.0 GA/away game).
- Combined team averages: Frankfurt 1.5 GF + 1.2 GA, Hamburg 1.0 GF + 1.9 GA = ~2.7 goals expected
- Frankfurt's last 5: 4 of 5 matches had 3+ goals (1-1, 1-3, 2-1, 2-2, 1-2)
- Hamburg's last 5: 4 of 5 matches had 3+ goals (1-2, 1-3, 0-4, 1-1, 2-3)
- H2H average: 2.79 goals per match over 33 historical meetings
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frankfurt's defensive frailty (58 GA in 31 league games, conceding in all last 5 matches) makes a clean sheet highly unlikely even against a poor Hamburg attack, as Hamburg still managed to score in most recent outings.
- Frankfurt conceded in all 5 of their last matches (GA: 1, 3, 1, 2, 2)
- Frankfurt season: 58 goals conceded in 31 matches (1.87 GA/game), negative GD for a 7th-place team
- Hamburg scored in 4 of 5 recent matches and 8 of 10 overall
- Frankfurt concede 1.53 goals/game at home (23 GA in 15 home matches)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHamburg to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hamburg's anemic away attack (0.8 goals/away game) and low shot generation (10 total, 3.9 on target) against Frankfurt's possession-dominant pressing system make it statistically likely Hamburg score 0 or 1.
- Hamburg away: 12 goals in 15 matches = 0.8 goals/away game
- Hamburg avg 3.9 shots on target per game (last 10), only 10 total shots/game
- Hamburg scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Frankfurt home GA: 23 in 15 = 1.53/game, but many against stronger opponents
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostHamburg under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Frankfurt's slow first-half starts under Riera (only 0.6 first-half GF avg, 20% leading at HT) combined with a combined first-half goals expectation of ~1.3 suggests under 1.5 FH goals is the more likely outcome.
- Frankfurt avg 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 first-half goals conceded (last 10)
- Hamburg avg 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.0 first-half goals conceded (last 10)
- Frankfurt leading at HT only 20% of the time; drawing at HT 60%
- Combined first-half goal expectation: ~0.6+0.7 = ~1.3 goals in first half
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hamburg's high fouling rate (10.9/game) and disciplinary record (2.1 yellows + 0.7 reds avg) against Frankfurt's possession-dominant pressing style should generate frequent stoppages and cards, with combined averages already at ~3.7 yellows alone.
- Hamburg avg 2.1 yellows + 0.7 reds per game (last 10); 10.9 fouls/game
- Frankfurt avg 1.6 yellows per game (last 10); 8.6 fouls/game
- Combined average: 3.7 yellows + potential reds = ~4+ cards per match
- Hamburg received 3 yellows + 1 red vs Bremen, 3 yellows vs Dortmund in recent away matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frankfurt's high possession and shot volume (13.3 shots/game) against Hamburg's deep defensive block should produce frequent corner-generating attacks, while Hamburg's counters may also yield corners from defensive clearances.
- Frankfurt avg 4.8 corners/game; opponents avg ~5.4 corners vs Frankfurt (last 10)
- Hamburg avg 3.3 corners/game; opponents avg ~7.4 corners vs Hamburg (last 5 recent)
- Frankfurt's possession dominance (59.1%) should generate corner opportunities against deep-sitting Hamburg
- Combined corner estimate: ~8-10 corners based on host-possession-dominant tactical setup
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hamburg's extremely high fouling rate (10.9/game) and consistent card accumulation (2.1 yellows avg, 2+ cards in 80% of recent matches) against Frankfurt's possession-pressing style virtually guarantees multiple bookings for the visitors.
- Hamburg avg 2.1 yellow cards per game over last 10 matches
- Hamburg avg 10.9 fouls/game — highest in the dataset
- Hamburg received 2+ yellows in 4 of their last 5 matches (2, 3, 1, 2, 3)
- Hamburg's 0.7 red cards/game average adds further card risk
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderlostHamburg over 1.5Estimated chance73%

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Eintracht Frankfurt1Hamburg2

Quick Take

Context

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Eintracht Frankfurt or Draw

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Result0 of 2 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Eintracht Frankfurt

Hamburg

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	31	11	10	10	56-58	43	DLWDL
15	Hamburg	31	7	10	14	34-50	31	LLLDL