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Leeds United

Leeds United - Burnley

Burnley
🇬🇧 Premier LeagueFinished
Friday, May 1, 2026 at 19:00

Finished Snapshot

FT3-1
FinishedSettled

Halftime

1-0

Predictions

6W · 5L · 0P

Edges

0W · 2L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

48%-52%

Shots

18-9

Shots on Target

8-3

Corners

5-0

Quick Take

Burnley are officially relegated (April 22) with managerial uncertainty nine days before this dead-rubber fixture; Leeds are at home, in form (beat Man United at Old Trafford April 13), and safe from relegation with manager confirmed. Back Both Teams to Score = No (1.91, +5.6pts edge) and Under 2.5 Total Goals (2.15, +8.5pts edge)—Burnley's worst-in-league attack combined with Leeds' home defensive solidity and zero Burnley motivation creates a persistent low-scoring pattern the market underprices.

Both Teams To ScoreNo58%+5.6pp
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.555%+8.5pp

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Leeds United:Implied 71% for Leeds vs our 62% estimate leaves no value margin and already reflects the motivation/form edge from predictor; overpriced at 1.40.
Double Chance Leeds United or Draw:Implied 91% exceeds our 84% estimate; market has fully priced the low-probability Burnley away win, removing any value cushion.
Total Goals Home Over 1.5:Bookmaker odds (1.50 → 66.7% implied) significantly outprice our MEDIUM confidence estimate of 55%; mispricing runs against the bet, leaving no cushion for the 11.7pt adverse edge.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Burnley arrive at Elland Road on May 1 already relegated and nine days removed from mathematical confirmation of Championship football (April 22, 2026, after a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester City). This is the defining context: a dead-rubber fixture with zero stakes for the visiting side, compounded by managerial uncertainty—Scott Parker's Burnley future is widely reported to be in serious doubt, with amicable departure considered likely and Steven Gerrard and Craig Bellamy positioned as replacement candidates.

Recent Form

Leeds United

Leeds United

L0-1ChelseaApr 26FAC
D2-2BournemouthApr 22PL
W3-0WolvesApr 18PL
W2-1Manchester UnitedApr 13PL
D0-0BrentfordMar 21PL
D0-0Crystal PalaceMar 15PL
W3-0NorwichMar 8FAC
L0-1SunderlandMar 3PL
L0-1Manchester CityFeb 28PL
D1-1Aston VillaFeb 21PL
Burnley

Burnley

L0-1Manchester CityApr 22PL
L1-4Nottingham ForestApr 19PL
L0-2BrightonApr 11PL
L1-3FulhamMar 21PL
D0-0BournemouthMar 14PL
L0-2EvertonMar 3PL
L3-4BrentfordFeb 28PL
D1-1ChelseaFeb 21PL
L1-2Mansfield TownFeb 14FAC
W3-2Crystal PalaceFeb 11PL

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
15
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
349131244-5140
19
BurnleyBurnley
Relegation - Championship
34482234-6820
20pt gap between teamsBurnley in relegation zone

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W
L2-0BurnleyvLeedsOct 18, 2025PL
D0-0BurnleyvLeedsJan 27, 2025CHA
W0-1LeedsvBurnleySep 14, 2024CHA
L3-1LeedsvBurnleyJan 2, 2022PL
D1-1BurnleyvLeedsAug 29, 2021PL
Leeds United: 2 clean sheetsBurnley: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Leeds United

25 available
Attackers6
Midfielders10
Defenders6
Goalkeeper3

Burnley

30 available
Attackers7
Midfielders12
Defenders8
Goalkeeper3