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Corinthians - Penarol Montevideo
Copa LibertadoresFinished
Friday, May 1, 2026 at 24:00
Finished Snapshot
FT2-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
2-0
Predictions
7W · 3L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
78%-22%
Shots
15-9
Shots on Target
4-2
Corners
5-4
Quick Take
Corinthians' Copa Libertadores form (2W, 0 GA, 6 pts) contrasts sharply with domestic chaos (new manager, 9-game winless run), creating a form discount the market has not fully priced. Back the home side or double chance (1X) combined with first-half Under 0.5 for best value.
1st Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 0.550%+8.3pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 41.7% → Our estimate: 50% → Edge: +8.3pts
- •Corinthians avg 0.3 goals in first half (last 10)
- •Peñarol avg 0.6 goals in first half but concede 0.7
- •Both Libertadores group wins were 0-0 at half-time
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Both Teams to Score No @ 1.50:Implied 66.7% leaves insufficient margin versus our 58% estimate; at MEDIUM confidence this requires 5pt cushion minimum and we have only 8.7pts but odds compress the value.
Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Corinthians face Peñarol in a Copa Libertadores Group E encounter where domestic distress masks a strong European-style group-stage platform. The home team enters under new manager Fernando Diniz (appointed 6 April 2026 following a nine-game winless run in domestic football) but have found rhythm in the tournament, winning both group matches 2-0 with consecutive clean sheets and sitting top of Group E with 6 points.
Recent Form
Corinthians
W1-0Vasco DA GamaApr 26SA
W1-0BarraApr 22COP
D0-0VitoriaApr 18SA
W2-0Santa FeApr 16CON
D0-0PalmeirasApr 12SA
W2-0PlatenseApr 10CON
L0-1InternacionalApr 5SA
L1-3FluminenseApr 2SA
D1-1FlamengoMar 22SA
D0-0Chapecoense-scMar 20SA
Penarol Montevideo
L0-1WanderersApr 26PRI
D2-2JuventudApr 20PRI
L1-2PlatenseApr 17CON
L0-2Liverpool MontevideoApr 13PRI
D1-1Santa FeApr 10CON
W2-0ProgresoApr 4PRI
L1-2Racing MontevideoMar 29PRI
W2-0Boston RiverMar 25PRI
W3-1CerroMar 21PRI
W1-0Albion FCMar 14PRI
League Table
CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians Playoffs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4-0 | 6 |
| 3 | Penarol Montevideo Copa Sudamericana | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1 |
5pt gap between teamsCorinthians leads the league
Head-to-Head
0W · 0D · 2WL4-0PenarolvCorinthiansMay 14, 2021CON
L0-2CorinthiansvPenarolApr 29, 2021CON
Penarol Montevideo: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg