Back to matches
Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo
Copa LibertadoresFinished
Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 02:00
Finished Snapshot
FT4-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
1-1
Predictions
5W · 5L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
56%-44%
Shots
15-11
Shots on Target
9-6
Corners
7-5
Quick Take
Nacional Montevideo, group leaders with unbeaten 2026 international record and prepared tactical plan, hold significant advantage over Universitario—whose manager was sacked nine days pre-match and interim coach has exhausted regulatory tenure.
Double ChanceDraw or Away (Nacional)68%+5.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 62.5% → Our estimate: 68% → Edge: +5.5pts
- •Nacional W1 D1 L0 in Copa Libertadores 2026 (group leaders); Universitario 1pt (last place)
- •Universitario lost 3 of last 5 domestic matches; Nacional unbeaten internationally in 2026
- •Interim coach Jorge Araujo already at regulatory 2-match limit; formal appointment unresolved due to contractual blocking
Model probabilities
Universitario de Deportes enter this Copa Libertadores Group B clash against group leaders Nacional Montevideo in institutional freefall. Nine days before kickoff, manager Javier Rabanal was sacked following poor domestic results, and interim coach Jorge Araujo has already reached Liga 1's 2-match regulatory cap—technically appointed as permanent head coach only to satisfy CONMEBOL rules while contractual blocking prevents a permanent hire. The club sits fourth in Group B with just 1 point (0-0 vs Tolima, 0-2 vs Coquimbo), making this a must-win to stay in Copa contention.
Recent Form
Universitario de Deportes
L1-2Alianza AtleticoApr 26PRI
W4-1Deportivo GarcilasoApr 23PRI
L1-2FBC MelgarApr 19PRI
L0-2Coquimbo UnidoApr 15CON
D0-0Deportes TolimaApr 8CON
W1-0Alianza LimaApr 5PRI
D0-0Comerciantes UnidosMar 21PRI
W2-0UTC CajamarcaMar 15PRI
L1-3Club Deportivo Los ChankasMar 8PRI
W1-0FC CajamarcaMar 1PRI
Nacional Montevideo
L1-2DanubioApr 25PRI
W3-1Liverpool MontevideoApr 19PRI
W3-1Deportes TolimaApr 14CON
L2-4Deportivo MaldonadoApr 11PRI
D1-1Coquimbo UnidoApr 8CON
L0-1Central EspanolApr 3PRI
W3-2Atletico TorqueMar 28PRI
W3-0Cerro LargoMar 24PRI
L1-2Defensor SportingMar 21PRI
W2-0WanderersMar 13PRI
League Table
CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 1 |
| 1 | Nacional Montevideo Playoffs | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4-2 | 4 |
3pt gap between teams
Head-to-head record not yet available.