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Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira
Copa LibertadoresFinished
Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 22:00
Finished Snapshot
FT4-1
FinishedSettled
Halftime
3-1
Predictions
4W · 6L · 0P
Edges
1W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
53%-47%
Shots
13-5
Shots on Target
5-2
Corners
4-2
Quick Take
Rivadavia are heavy favorites (62% home win, beat Fluminense at Maracana) against a La Guaira side strong domestically but struggling in Libertadores. The shareable edge: Corners Under 8.5 at 1.91 (combined profile ~6.9, offering +12.6pt edge); avoid tightly-priced underdog marke...
Corners Over/UnderUnder 8.565%+12.6pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 52.4% → Our estimate: 65% → Edge: +12.6pts
- •Rivadavia avg 4.4 corners/game
- •La Guaira avg just 2.5 corners/game
- •Combined 6.9 corners/game — low-volume pairing
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Both Teams to Score No:Implied 63.7% at 1.57 vs our estimate 58% leaves no value for MEDIUM confidence; bookmaker pricing is tight and unfavourable.
Goals Over/Under Under 2.5:Implied 57.8% at 1.73 vs our estimate 60% yields only +2.2 pts; insufficient margin for MEDIUM confidence (requires 5+ pt edge).
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Implied 71.4% at 1.40 vs our estimate 65% creates -6.4 pt edge; bookmaker pricing tight on first-half low-scoring thesis, no value.
Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Independiente Rivadavia arrive in Mendoza as a convincing favorite—but not for the reasons you'd expect from a Copa Libertadores pedigree. The Argentine club are a competition debutant riding genuinely exceptional momentum: group leaders on 6 points from two matches (both wins), domestic league leaders in the Apertura, and they stunned Fluminense with a 2-1 away victory at the Maracana on April 15. That scalp alone shifts the narrative.
Recent Form
Independiente Rivadavia
W5-1Gimnasia M.Apr 26LIG
D0-0BanfieldApr 20LIG
W2-1FluminenseApr 16CON
W3-1Argentinos JRSApr 11LIG
W1-0BolívarApr 7CON
W2-0TigreApr 2LIG
W2-0Rosario CentralMar 23LIG
W3-2Gimnasia L.P.Mar 15LIG
L1-2Barracas CentralMar 12LIG
D1-1River PlateMar 3LIG
Deportivo La Guaira
W1-0Trujillanos FCApr 25PRI
D0-0Portuguesa FCApr 20PRI
D1-1BolívarApr 15CON
W3-2Deportivo Tachira FCApr 10PRI
D0-0FluminenseApr 7CON
D1-1Carabobo FCApr 2PRI
W1-0UCVMar 21PRI
D0-0Academia AnzoáteguiMar 17PRI
D0-0Puerto CabelloMar 13PRI
W1-0Estudiantes de Merida FCMar 6PRI
League Table
CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia Playoffs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3-1 | 6 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Guaira Playoffs | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 2 |
4pt gap between teamsIndependiente Rivadavia leads the league
Head-to-head record not yet available.