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Cerro Porteno - Palmeiras
Copa LibertadoresFinished
Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 24:30
Finished Snapshot
FT1-1
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-1
Predictions
2W · 7L · 1P
Edges
0W · 2L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
34%-66%
Shots
8-15
Shots on Target
3-6
Corners
3-5
Quick Take
Palmeiras' perfect 7-0 Copa Libertadores H2H record and elite defensive form (0.5 GA/game) vs. Cerro's home-venue bounce under new coach Jorge Bava creates a clash of structure and psychology—back Palmeiras Asian Handicap 0 or Over 2.5 goals for value.
Corners Over/UnderOver 9.562%+6.4pp
Goals Over/UnderOver 2.555%+10.6pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 55.6% → Our estimate: 62% → Edge: +6.4pts
- •Cerro Porteno avg 6.0 corners/match (last 10)
- •Palmeiras avg 7.4 corners/match (last 10)
- •Combined avg 13.4 corners/match
Implied: 44.4% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +10.6pts
- •Palmeiras avg 2.6 goals/match in Copa Lib H2H vs Cerro
- •Palmeiras shots per game: 15.8 (high volume)
- •Cerro concede 0.9 goals/match average
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Implied 77.5% far exceeds our 60% estimate, leaving no margin; tight first-half scoring patterns in both teams' recent form suggests fair odds but not a value spot for a MEDIUM confidence play.
Both Teams to Score No:Odds 1.73 imply 57.8% for 'No' (neither team scores), but Palmeiras' offensive profile and recent H2H dominance suggest the market is underestimating the 'Yes' case; however, no direct clean sheet market exists for Palmeiras, limiting bet precision.
Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Palmeiras arrives at Cerro Porteño with an overwhelming historical advantage: a perfect 7-0 record in Copa Libertadores H2H meetings with 18 goals to Cerro's 1, a gap that shapes the entire matchup psychology. This is not merely statistical; it reflects a structural quality difference that persists despite Cerro's recent form improvements under new coach Jorge Bava, who has engineered a 63% win rate across 8 matches with 4 wins in the last 5 outings. The intel reveals a notable context layer: Abel Ferreira's absence at Palmeiras (with João Martins managing interim duties at a 62.
Recent Form
Cerro Porteno
D1-1Sportivo AmelianoApr 24DIV
W1-0JuniorApr 14CON
D0-0Nacional AsuncionApr 11DIV
L0-1Sporting CristalApr 9CON
W3-02 de MayoApr 4DIV
W3-2Sportivo LuquenoMar 31DIV
W2-0Club Sp. San LorenzoMar 28DIV
W3-2Libertad AsuncionMar 21DIV
L0-2Rubio NUMar 18DIV
W2-1Sportivo TrinidenseMar 14DIV
Palmeiras
W1-0RB BragantinoApr 26SA
W3-0JacuipenseApr 23COP
W1-0Atletico ParanaenseApr 19SA
W2-1Sporting CristalApr 16CON
D0-0CorinthiansApr 12SA
D1-1JuniorApr 9CON
W2-1BahiaApr 5SA
W2-1GremioApr 3SA
W1-0Sao PauloMar 22SA
W2-1BotafogoMar 18SA
League Table
CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cerro Porteno Copa Sudamericana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 3 |
| 1 | Palmeiras Playoffs | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3-2 | 4 |
1pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
0W · 0D · 5WL0-2Cerro PortenovPalmeirasMay 8, 2025CON
L1-0PalmeirasvCerro PortenoApr 10, 2025CON
L0-3Cerro PortenovPalmeirasMay 24, 2023CON
L2-1PalmeirasvCerro PortenoApr 21, 2023CON
L5-0PalmeirasvCerro PortenoJul 6, 2022CON
Palmeiras unbeaten in 5 meetingsPalmeiras: 4 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg