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Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka
🇯🇵 J1 LeagueFinished
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 05:00
Finished Snapshot
FT0-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
2W · 8L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
63%-37%
Shots
10-9
Shots on Target
3-4
Corners
5-3
Quick Take
Vissel Kobe are 1st-place J1 leaders on a 4-game winning streak with an 8-game home streak of 2+ goals; Cerezo are 9th, mid-table, and concede 1.17 goals per away match. The H2H shows 4 of last 5 meetings with 3+ goals and both teams scoring in the last 5 clashes.
Total Goals HomeOver 1.5 (Vissel Kobe)64%+6.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 57.8% → Our estimate: 64% → Edge: +6pts
- •Kobe averaged 2.17 goals per home match in J1 (13 in 6 games)
- •8-game home streak of 2+ goals scored since December 2025
- •Cerezo conceding 1.17 goals per away match (7 in 6 away games)
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Double Chance Vissel Kobe or Draw:Market prices this at 1.22 (implied 82%) while our HIGH-confidence estimate is 78%; the market is overpriced relative to our thesis, leaving no value cushion.
Match Winner Vissel Kobe:Odds at 1.78 imply 56.2% vs MEDIUM estimate of 55%; asymmetric risk-reward offers no compelling value.
Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Vissel Kobe enter this fixture as clear favorites—they sit 1st in the J1 League with 25 points from 11 matches (7W–3D–1L) and have won 4 of their last 5 league outings. At home, the picture is even more dominant: 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss in 6 matches with 13 goals for and 7 against. Critically, Kobe have scored 2+ goals in 8 consecutive home matches since December 2025, demonstrating relentless attacking intent. In contrast, Cerezo Osaka sit 9th mid-table with 17 points and are struggling away from home (3W–0D–3L, conceding 1.17 goals per away match).
Recent Form
Vissel Kobe
L1-2Al-Ahli JeddahApr 20AFC
W3-2Nagoya GrampusApr 11J1
W4-1Fagiano OkayamaApr 5J1
W2-0Shimizu S-pulseApr 1J1
W2-1Sanfrecce HiroshimaMar 27J1
W3-0Nagoya GrampusMar 14J1
W2-1FC SeoulMar 11AFC
W1-0FC SeoulMar 4AFC
W2-1Avispa FukuokaFeb 27J1
L0-1Shimizu S-pulseFeb 21J1
Cerezo Osaka
L1-2Sanfrecce HiroshimaApr 25J1
W3-0Kyoto SangaApr 18J1
W1-0Gamba OsakaApr 11J1
L0-3Nagoya GrampusApr 4J1
L1-2Fagiano OkayamaMar 18J1
W2-1Kyoto SangaMar 14J1
L0-1V-varen NagasakiFeb 28J1
L1-2Sanfrecce HiroshimaFeb 22J1
W2-0Avispa FukuokaFeb 15J1
L1-2TIAMO HirakataFeb 8FRI
League Table
J1 League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs) | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23-12 | 25 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14-13 | 17 |
8pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
2W · 2D · 1WD1-1Cerezo OsakavVissel KobeMar 22, 2026J1
D1-1Cerezo OsakavVissel KobeAug 23, 2025J1
L1-3Vissel KobevCerezo OsakaMay 6, 2025J1
W2-1Vissel KobevCerezo OsakaSep 13, 2024J1
W1-4Cerezo OsakavVissel KobeMay 11, 2024J1
3.2 goals/game avg