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Sporting Lisbon - Tondela
🇵🇹 Primeira LigaFinished
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 19:15
Finished Snapshot
FT2-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
7W · 5L · 0P
Edges
2W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
64%-36%
Shots
16-9
Shots on Target
5-2
Corners
5-5
Quick Take
Sporting's 8-game unbeaten H2H streak, elite home record (41 goals in 14 matches), and 3-0 reverse win create structural dominance—but market-implied probabilities price this heavily.
1st Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.570%+14.0pp
Goals Over/UnderOver 2.566%+9.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 84.7% → Our estimate: 70% → Edge: +14pts
- •Tondela away concede 0.9 GF in first half per match
- •Sporting home avg 0.6 first-half goals per match
- •Tondela trail at half-time 30% of away matches
Implied: 75.2% → Our estimate: 66% → Edge: +9pts
- •Sporting home avg 3.5 GF per match (41 in 14)
- •Tondela away avg 2.79 GF per match (39 in 14)
- •Last 5 H2H: four of five went over 2.5
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Double Chance Home or Draw:Implied 99.0% odds on 1.01 leave zero value margin; estimated 94% offers no cushion against market overvaluation despite structural dominance.
Match Winner Home:Market-implied 88.5% at 1.13 odds exceeds our 82% estimate by 6.5pts—this is the most liquid market and pricing appears fair to tight relative to Sporting's home advantage.
Both Teams to Score No:Implied 59.9% leaves only 1.9pts cushion vs our 58% estimate; margin insufficient for MEDIUM confidence play.
Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Sporting Lisbon's dominance over Tondela is structural and sustained. The hosts have won 8 consecutive H2H meetings without defeat, including a 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture this season (October 2025), and maintain a 29-12 aggregate goal difference across the last 15 H2H clashes. At home this season, Sporting show elite control: 11 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses with a +33 goal difference (41 scored, 8 conceded in 14 matches).
Recent Form
Sporting Lisbon
D1-1AVSApr 26PRI
D0-0FC PortoApr 22TAÇ
L1-2BenficaApr 19PRI
D0-0ArsenalApr 15UEF
W1-0EstrelaApr 11PRI
L0-1ArsenalApr 7UEF
W4-2Santa ClaraApr 3PRI
W4-1AlvercaMar 22PRI
L0-3Bodo/GlimtMar 11UEF
D2-2SC BragaMar 7PRI
Tondela
L0-2NacionalApr 25PRI
L0-2FC PortoApr 19PRI
D2-2GIL VicenteApr 13PRI
L0-5GuimaraesApr 3PRI
D0-0AVSMar 21PRI
L0-1Rio AveMar 9PRI
D2-2Santa ClaraMar 1PRI
W2-0EstrelaFeb 20PRI
D1-1AlvercaFeb 13PRI
D2-2EstorilFeb 7PRI
League Table
Primeira Liga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting Lisbon Promotion - Europa League (Qualification) | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 75-20 | 72 |
| 17 | Tondela Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 21-50 | 21 |
51pt gap between teamsTondela in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
3W · 0D · 2WW0-3TondelavSporting CPOct 26, 2025PRI
L4-0Sporting CPvTondelaJan 9, 2024TAÇ
W1-2TondelavSporting CPDec 23, 2023TAÇ
W1-3TondelavSporting CPApr 9, 2022PRI
L2-0Sporting CPvTondelaNov 28, 2021PRI
Tondela: 2 clean sheets3.2 goals/game avg