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Shimizu S Pulse - V Varen Nagasaki
🇯🇵 J1 LeagueFinished
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 04:00
Finished Snapshot
FT1-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
1-1
Predictions
1W · 10L · 0P
Edges
0W · 2L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
43%-57%
Shots
7-18
Shots on Target
1-6
Corners
3-4
Quick Take
Shimizu are heavy favourites backed by home advantage, H2H dominance (4W in last 9 vs Nagasaki), and a 3-0 demolition 24 days ago; the 2.20 odds imply 45% win probability but structured data supports ~52%, offering modest edge for backing the home favourite.
Double ChanceHome or Draw75%+1.0pp
Match WinnerHome (Shimizu S Pulse)52%+7.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 74% → Our estimate: 75% → Edge: +1pts
- •Shimizu unbeaten last 7 vs Nagasaki (4W 3D in H2H last 9)
- •Nagasaki away form last 6: 1W 5L (17% win rate)
- •Nagasaki newly promoted after 6 years in J2; transitional form volatility
Implied: 45% → Our estimate: 52% → Edge: +7pts
- •Shimizu 3W 0D 2L at home this season (60% win rate)
- •Nagasaki 2W 0D 4L away (33% win rate)
- •Shimizu beat Nagasaki 3-0 on April 5, 2026 (24 days prior, same competition)
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Asian Handicap Shimizu -0.5:While theoretically aligned with matchWinner thesis, the draw-no-bet equivalent at 1.57 implies 64% probability vs our 52% estimate, leaving no value cushion and requiring clean Shimizu victory; European handicap or -1.0 line offers better risk-adjusted entry if backing Shimizu win at all.
Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Shimizu S Pulse host V Varen Nagasaki in a rematch just 24 days after dismantling them 3-0 away on April 5, 2026. Home advantage compounds an already stark competitive gap: Shimizu's 60% home win rate (3W 0D 2L) stands against Nagasaki's struggling away record (2W 0D 4L, 33%). Historically, Shimizu dominate the fixture, with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses across their last 9 H2H meetings, and recent form shows Nagasaki failing to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
Recent Form
Shimizu S Pulse
L0-2Nagoya GrampusApr 25J1
W3-0V-varen NagasakiApr 5J1
L0-2Vissel KobeApr 1J1
W3-1Sanfrecce HiroshimaMar 22J1
W1-0Vissel KobeFeb 21J1
L0-1Nagoya GrampusFeb 8J1
W2-0Jubilo IwataJan 24FRI
W2-1KitakyushuJan 20FRI
L1-2Fagiano OkayamaDec 6J1
L0-1Shonan BellmareNov 30J1
V Varen Nagasaki
L0-2Sanfrecce HiroshimaApr 18J1
L0-1Avispa FukuokaApr 11J1
L0-3Shimizu S-pulseApr 5J1
W1-0Fagiano OkayamaMar 21J1
L1-2Kyoto SangaMar 18J1
W1-0Avispa FukuokaMar 15J1
L2-3Gamba OsakaMar 8J1
W1-0Cerezo OsakaFeb 28J1
W3-1Nagoya GrampusFeb 21J1
L0-2Vissel KobeFeb 13J1
League Table
J1 League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shimizu S Pulse Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 15-16 | 17 |
| 10 | V Varen Nagasaki Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 11-19 | 13 |
4pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 2WW0-3V-varen NagasakivShimizu S-pulseApr 5, 2026J1
D1-1Shimizu S-pulsevV-varen NagasakiSep 7, 2024J2
L4-1V-varen NagasakivShimizu S-pulseMar 10, 2024J2
L3-2Shimizu S-pulsevV-varen NagasakiJul 1, 2023J2
D1-1V-varen NagasakivShimizu S-pulseMar 4, 2023J2
3.4 goals/game avg