Back to matches
Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama
🇯🇵 J1 LeagueFinished
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 06:00
Finished Snapshot
FT1-1
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
3W · 8L · 0P
Edges
2W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
65%-35%
Shots
10-14
Shots on Target
3-4
Corners
7-2
Quick Take
Nagoya Grampus unbeaten vs Okayama all-time (5W 1D 0L H2H) and strong at home; Okayama winless in J1 away fixtures (1W-0D-5L) in their debut top-division season. Target Over 1.5 Home Goals (2.20) for +12.5pt edge and Both Teams to Score (1.91) for +7.6pt—avoid overpriced Draw at...
Both Teams to ScoreYes60%+7.6pp
Total Goals HomeOver 1.558%+12.5pp
Goals Over/UnderOver 2.558%+10.4pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Draw:Implied 30.8% leaves no meaningful cushion vs structural expectation of 20-25% given Okayama's 1W-0D-5L away record and Nagoya's 0-loss H2H dominance; pricing does not reflect the away team weakness.
Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Nagoya Grampus host newly-promoted Fagiano Okayama in a J1 League fixture that carries a stark quality-gap narrative: Okayama are playing their first-ever top-division season after 16 years in J2, while Nagoya sit 2nd in the West group under new manager Mihailo Petrovic. The head-to-head record is punishing for the visitors—Nagoya are unbeaten in all 6 competitive meetings (5W 1D 0L), with the most recent encounter ending 1-1 in a cup match on March 1, 2026, though Okayama won the penalty shootout.
Recent Form
Nagoya Grampus
W2-0Shimizu S-pulseApr 25J1
L2-3Vissel KobeApr 11J1
W3-0Cerezo OsakaApr 4J1
W2-1Sanfrecce HiroshimaMar 18J1
L0-3Vissel KobeMar 14J1
W5-1Avispa FukuokaMar 7J1
L1-3V-varen NagasakiFeb 21J1
W1-0Shimizu S-pulseFeb 8J1
W1-0Avispa FukuokaDec 6J1
L1-3Machida ZelviaNov 30J1
Fagiano Okayama
W2-0Avispa FukuokaApr 25J1
L1-5Kyoto SangaApr 11J1
L1-4Vissel KobeApr 5J1
L0-1V-varen NagasakiMar 21J1
W2-1Cerezo OsakaMar 18J1
W1-0Kyoto SangaMar 8J1
L1-2Gamba OsakaFeb 22J1
L0-1KashimaJan 20FRI
W2-1Shimizu S-pulseDec 6J1
L0-1UrawaNov 30J1
League Table
J1 League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nagoya Grampus Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22-17 | 21 |
| 8 | Fagiano Okayama Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place) | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15-23 | 15 |
6pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
3W · 2D · 0WD1-1Fagiano OkayamavNagoya GrampusMar 1, 2026J1
W0-1Fagiano OkayamavNagoya GrampusSep 13, 2025J1
D0-0Nagoya GrampusvFagiano OkayamaMay 6, 2025J1
W1-0Nagoya GrampusvFagiano OkayamaAug 2, 2021EMP
W0-1Fagiano OkayamavNagoya GrampusNov 5, 2017J2
Nagoya Grampus unbeaten in 5 meetingsNagoya Grampus: 4 clean sheets1 goals/game avg