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Kashiwa Reysol - Tokyo
π―π΅ J1 LeagueFinished
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 07:00
Finished Snapshot
FT1-3
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-1
Predictions
10W Β· 2L Β· 0P
Edges
3W Β· 0L Β· 0P
Match Stats
Possession
57%-43%
Shots
13-18
Shots on Target
6-9
Corners
5-4
Quick Take
Tokyo are massive statistical favorites despite away status, with 5 consecutive wins, an elite away record, and 15-point standings advantage over a struggling Kashiwa side.
1st Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.578%+5.0pp
Double ChanceDraw or Tokyo72%+8.0pp
Goals Over/UnderOver 2.562%+9.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Tokyo:Tokyo at 2.90 (implied 35%) vs our 48% estimate yields 13+ point edge, which is suspicious for the most liquid market; the large discrepancy suggests either overstated confidence or hidden information the market has priced in (e.g., injury, tactical setup) that our stats don't capture.
1st Half Result Tokyo:Tokyo at 3.60 (implied 28%) vs our 45% estimate yields 17+ point edge, exceptionally high for a half-time market; this suggests the market may be pricing in specific half-time dynamics (Kashiwa's home structure, fast starts by Kashiwa early) not fully captured in season-to-date half-time stats.
Total Goals Away Tokyo Over 1.5:Implied 38.0% vs estimated 65% creates a 27pt discrepancy that exceeds threshold for reasonable mispricing; market may not reflect Tokyo's away performance data or bookmaker is pricing in home-field disadvantage more heavily than stats support β verify recent away form before wagering.
Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Kashiwa Reysol host a resurgent FC Tokyo side in a J1 League clash that pits a struggling home team against one of the season's form leaders. Tokyo sit 2nd in the J1 East standings with 26 points from 9 wins and just 3 losses, while Kashiwa occupy 9th place with only 11 points despite qualifying for next season's AFC Champions League Elite. The 15-point standings gap represents the fundamental structural advantage Tokyo bring to this fixture, despite playing away from home.
Recent Form
Kashiwa Reysol
L0-1KashimaApr 24J1
L0-2Mito HollyhockApr 19J1
L0-1Machida ZelviaApr 11J1
W3-0Yokohama F. MarinosApr 5J1
W3-0Mito HollyhockMar 22J1
L0-1Machida ZelviaMar 14J1
L1-2JEF United ChibaMar 7J1
W2-0FC TokyoFeb 28J1
L0-2KashimaFeb 21J1
L1-2Tokyo VerdyFeb 15J1
Tokyo
W5-2Mito HollyhockApr 24J1
W3-1Yokohama F. MarinosApr 11J1
W3-0Machida ZelviaApr 1J1
W2-1JEF United ChibaMar 18J1
W3-0Yokohama F. MarinosMar 7J1
L0-2Kashiwa ReysolFeb 28J1
W2-1Kawasaki FrontaleFeb 21J1
W4-3Sanfrecce HiroshimaJan 18FRI
D1-1Albirex NiigataDec 6J1
D0-0Vissel KobeNov 30J1
League Table
J1 League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15-17 | 11 |
| 2 | Tokyo Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 24-12 | 26 |
15pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
4W Β· 1D Β· 0WW0-2FC TokyovKashiwa ReysolFeb 28, 2026J1
W1-0Kashiwa ReysolvFC TokyoJul 5, 2025J1
D1-1FC TokyovKashiwa ReysolApr 11, 2025J1
W0-1FC TokyovKashiwa ReysolJul 30, 2024FRI
W3-2Kashiwa ReysolvFC TokyoJul 6, 2024J1
Kashiwa Reysol unbeaten in 5 meetingsKashiwa Reysol: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg