Back to matches
Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido
Copa LibertadoresFinished
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 02:00
Finished Snapshot
FT3-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
4W · 8L · 0P
Edges
2W · 3L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
68%-32%
Shots
14-9
Shots on Target
5-5
Corners
1-4
Quick Take
Tolima's must-win desperation (1 point, facing elimination) versus Coquimbo's comfortable draw-tolerant position (4 points, unbeaten in 8) creates a classic asymmetric motivation setup—open attacking from Tolima, counter-opportunism from Coquimbo.
Total Goals AwayOver 0.570%+6.3pp
Cards Over/UnderOver 4.568%+10.2pp
Double ChanceDraw or Away (Coquimbo Unido)64%+8.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
1st Half Both Teams to Score No:Implied 88.5% leaves no margin vs our 78% estimate; both teams' first-half goal output averages well below 0.5 (Tolima 0.5, Coquimbo 0.4), making the No at 1.13 excessively priced in favor of the no-goal outcome. Vig too heavy for defensive odds.
Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Deportes Tolima face an elimination match against a Coquimbo Unido side in peak form. After just 1 point from 2 Copa Libertadores group-stage games, Tolima sit bottom-adjacent with no wins in their last 5 matches (LWLDL pattern). A defeat here is mathematically de facto elimination from the knockout rounds. In stark contrast, Coquimbo arrive on an 8-match unbeaten streak with 4 points already secured—meaning a draw qualifies them for the round of 16. This asymmetric motivation setup (must-win desperation vs. comfortable draw tolerance) is the match's defining psychological axis.
Recent Form
Deportes Tolima
L0-2MillonariosApr 24PRI
W2-0Deportivo PereiraApr 18PRI
L1-3Club NacionalApr 14CON
L0-1Deportivo PastoApr 11PRI
D0-0UniversitarioApr 8CON
D2-2Santa FeApr 5PRI
W4-1Águilas DoradasApr 1PRI
W3-1JaguaresMar 28PRI
D1-1ChicoMar 23PRI
W2-0Fortaleza FCMar 19PRI
Coquimbo Unido
W2-1Union La CaleraApr 24PRI
D1-1NublenseApr 19PRI
W2-0UniversitarioApr 15CON
D1-1Club NacionalApr 8CON
W3-2CobresalApr 3PRI
W2-1ConcepciónMar 29COP
W1-0HuachipatoMar 25COP
D1-1Colo ColoMar 21COP
L0-1Universidad de ChileMar 14PRI
W3-1HuachipatoMar 7PRI
League Table
CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportes Tolima Copa Sudamericana | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1 |
| 2 | Coquimbo Unido Playoffs | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3-1 | 4 |
3pt gap between teams
Head-to-head record not yet available.