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Den Bosch - Almere City
π³π± EredivisieUpcoming
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 16:45
Quick Take
Den Bosch hold structural home and psychological advantage (won 5-2 at home vs Almere this season; manager Rijsdijk confirmed leaving) but respect Almere's 2.0 goals-per-match average.
Both Teams to ScoreYes70%-2.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 72.5% β Our estimate: 70% β Edge: -2.5pts
- β’Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (80%)
- β’Den Bosch concede 1.8 goals/match avg; Almere City concede 1.6 goals/match avg
- β’Almere City score 2.0 goals/match avg; Den Bosch score 1.6 goals/match avg
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:Implied 69.4% leaves no edge cushion vs our 64% MEDIUM confidence estimate; odds price out value at 1.44 for this directional thesis.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Over 0.5:Implied 80% on 1.25 odds is well above our 72% MEDIUM confidence; vig and odds movement suggest bookmaker conviction that early goals are less likely than our stats indicate.
Den Bosch host Almere City in a crucial Eredivisie clash on April 29, with Den Bosch emerging as slight favorites after winning both 2025-26 meetings this season (5-2 at home in November, 1-2 away in early April). The home advantage combines with their recent head-to-head superiority to suggest a structural edge, though Almere City's 4-goal showing in their November loss and their consistent 2.0 goals-per-match average in the last 10 contests indicate they remain a genuine attacking threat.
Recent Form
Den Bosch
L1-3ADO Den HaagApr 24EER
D1-1Jong UtrechtApr 20EER
L2-4FC OSSApr 17EER
D1-1CambuurApr 10EER
W2-1Almere City FCApr 6EER
W3-2WaalwijkMar 21EER
W1-0Jong PSV U21Mar 16EER
L2-3Jong AjaxMar 13EER
D1-1Willem IIMar 8EER
D2-2RodaFeb 27EER
Almere City
L1-3VVV VenloApr 24EER
W4-1DordrechtApr 17EER
L1-2Willem IIApr 12EER
L1-2Den BoschApr 6EER
W3-2FC OSSApr 3EER
W2-0Jong AjaxMar 20EER
D2-2WaalwijkMar 17EER
W3-1VitesseMar 13EER
W1-0ADO Den HaagMar 7EER
L2-3CambuurMar 3EER
Standings will be available soon.
Head-to-Head
2W Β· 2D Β· 1WW1-2Almere City FCvDen BoschApr 6, 2026EER
W5-2Den BoschvAlmere City FCNov 21, 2025EER
D1-1Almere City FCvDen BoschAug 1, 2025FRI
D2-2Den BoschvAlmere City FCMay 12, 2023EER
L2-0Almere City FCvDen BoschAug 26, 2022EER
3.6 goals/game avg