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Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🇯🇵 J1 LeagueFinished
Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 05:00
Finished Snapshot
FT2-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
1-2
Predictions
5W · 7L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
43%-57%
Shots
11-15
Shots on Target
3-3
Corners
3-3
Quick Take
Sanfrecce Hiroshima possess superior league position and historical dominance, but Avispa Fukuoka hold genuine momentum (3 straight wins including a 1-0 away victory at Hiroshima just 24 days ago) and home advantage.
Corners Over/UnderOver 9.560%+11.2pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 48.8% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +11.2pts
- •Hiroshima averages 7.0 corners per game over last 10
- •Combined recent average 11.4 corners per match
- •Hiroshima possession 53.7% drives territorial dominance
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Both Teams to Score No:Estimated 58% vs implied 57.8%; essentially no margin for MEDIUM confidence. Bookmaker has this fairly priced.
Goals Over/Under Under 2.5:Estimated 56% vs implied 60.6%; the odds offer negative expected value—bookmaker prices this Under 4.6 points higher than our estimate.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Estimated 65% vs implied 73.5%; heavy underdog pricing (8.5pt deficit). Bookmaker is confident on this line; high vig relative to prediction confidence.
Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima presents a compelling contrasts between structural dominance and momentum. Sanfrecce historically dominate this matchup (15W-6D-4L in 25 all-time meetings) and rank 2nd in the J1 League with 11 points from 5 games, featuring a new manager (Bartosch Gaul, appointed for 2026) tasked with 'evolution, not revolution' from a title-challenging side.
Recent Form
Avispa Fukuoka
L0-2Fagiano OkayamaApr 25J1
W2-1Gamba OsakaApr 22J1
W1-0V-varen NagasakiApr 11J1
W1-0Sanfrecce HiroshimaApr 5J1
L0-1V-varen NagasakiMar 15J1
L1-5Nagoya GrampusMar 7J1
L1-2Vissel KobeFeb 27J1
L0-2Kyoto SangaFeb 22J1
L0-2Cerezo OsakaFeb 15J1
D1-1Roasso KumamotoFeb 9FRI
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
W2-1Cerezo OsakaApr 25J1
W2-0V-varen NagasakiApr 18J1
L0-1Avispa FukuokaApr 5J1
L1-2Vissel KobeMar 27J1
L1-3Shimizu S-pulseMar 22J1
L1-2Nagoya GrampusMar 18J1
W2-0Gamba OsakaMar 14J1
W1-0Johor Darul Takzim FCMar 11AFC
L1-3Johor Darul Takzim FCMar 4AFC
L1-2Kyoto SangaFeb 27J1
League Table
J1 League 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14-23 | 15 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place) | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19-15 | 19 |
4pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
2W · 0D · 3WW0-1Sanfrecce HiroshimavAvispa FukuokaApr 5, 2026J1
L1-2Avispa FukuokavSanfrecce HiroshimaSep 27, 2025J1
L2-1Sanfrecce HiroshimavAvispa FukuokaJun 8, 2025J-L
W1-0Avispa FukuokavSanfrecce HiroshimaJun 4, 2025J-L
L2-1Sanfrecce HiroshimavAvispa FukuokaMay 3, 2025J1
Avispa Fukuoka: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg