Atletico Madrid - Arsenal

UEFA Champions LeagueFinished

Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 19:00

Finished Snapshot

FT1-1

FinishedSettled

Halftime

0-1

Predictions

3W · 7L · 0P

Edges

1W · 3L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

52%-48%

Shots

18-11

Shots on Target

4-2

Corners

6-1

Quick Take

Arsenal arrive as Europe's most resilient away side (4-0 in UCL phase, 1 GA) facing an emotionally drained Atletico Madrid 11 days after a Copa del Rey penalty defeat; motivation asymmetry plus the recent 4-0 H2H make Arsenal not losing the first leg the key structural outcome, w...

Cards Over/UnderOver 4.562%+15.5pp

1st Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.560%+21.5pp

Corners Over/UnderOver 9.560%+5.9pp

Context Signals

Betting Edges

Implied: 46.5% -> Our estimate: 62% -> Edge: +15.5pts

•Atletico Madrid: 2.8 yellow cards per match (last 10)
•Arsenal: 1.3 yellow cards per match (last 10)
•Ref Makkelie: Firm but disciplined; not known as card-heavy

Implied: 38.5% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +21.5pts

•Arsenal first-half goals average 0.4/game; trailing at HT in only 10% of last 10 matches
•Atletico first-half average 1.2 goals but inconsistent (40% leading, 40% trailing at HT)
•Knockout first legs typically feature cautious openings; recent Atletico vs Arsenal data confirms low-volume HT patterns

Implied: 54.1% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +5.9pts

•Arsenal avg 6.7 corners/game across last 10; Atletico avg 5.2 opponent corners conceded
•Combined corners floor ~10.5 based on attacking intensity and defensive vulnerability
•Arsenal at home vs Barcelona produced 11 total corners; Atletico at home vs Barca showed 8 in comparable sample

Implied: 52.4% → Our estimate: 58% → Edge: +5.6pts

•Atletico concede 1.9 goals/game at home; Arsenal score in 4 of last 5 matches
•Head-to-head 2025-26: Arsenal won 4-0 vs Atletico earlier this season
•Atletico's only recent clean sheet (2-0 vs Barcelona) masks 1.9 goals conceded average

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Goals Over/Under Over 3.5:Implied 23.8% vs full-match context where 2.0 avg goals across both teams suggests low-volume outcome is most likely; the long odds (4.20) leave minimal safety margin for directional plays.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Atletico Madrid hosts Arsenal in a UEFA Champions League semi-final first leg shaped by starkly asymmetric motivation. Arsenal arrive as Premier League leaders following a 1-0 win over Newcastle on April 25, boasting a flawless 8-0-0 record in the current UCL phase with a +19 goal differential and a perfect 4-0 away record that has conceded just 1 goal across 4 matches.

Recent Form

Atletico Madrid

W3-2Athletic ClubApr 25LL

L2-3ElcheApr 22LL

L1-2BarcelonaApr 14UEF

L1-2SevillaApr 11LL

W2-0BarcelonaApr 8UEF

L1-2BarcelonaApr 4LL

L2-3Real MadridMar 22LL

L2-3TottenhamMar 18UEF

W1-0GetafeMar 14LL

W5-2TottenhamMar 10UEF

Arsenal

W1-0NewcastleApr 25PL

L1-2Manchester CityApr 19PL

D0-0Sporting CPApr 15UEF

L1-2BournemouthApr 11PL

W1-0Sporting CPApr 7UEF

L1-2SouthamptonApr 4FAC

L0-2Manchester CityMar 22LEA

W2-0Bayer LeverkusenMar 17UEF

W2-0EvertonMar 14PL

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenMar 11UEF

League Table

UEFA Champions League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Atletico Madrid Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	8	4	1	3	17-15	13	LDWWW
1	Arsenal Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	8	8	0	0	23-4	24	WWWWW

11pt gap between teamsArsenal leads the league

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

L4-0ArsenalvAtletico MadridOct 21, 2025UEF

D1-1Atletico MadridvArsenalJul 26, 2018INT

W1-0Atletico MadridvArsenalMay 3, 2018UEF

D1-1ArsenalvAtletico MadridApr 26, 2018UEF

2.3 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Atletico Madrid

8 out

Attackers6

Midfielders4/16

×#8

×#22

×#8

×#22

Defenders4/11

×#2

×#17

×#2

×#17

Goalkeeper5

#8 P. Barrios — Muscle Injury

#2 J. M. Gimenez — Injury

#17 D. Hancko — Injury

#22 A. Lookman — Muscle Injury

#8 P. Barrios — Muscle Injury

#2 J. M. Gimenez — Injury

#17 D. Hancko — Injury

#22 A. Lookman — Muscle Injury

Arsenal

10 out

Attackers4/11

×#10

×#29

×#10

×#29

Midfielders2/7

×#23

Defenders4/11

×#33

×#12

×#33

×#12

Goalkeeper6

#23 M. Merino — Foot Injury

#33 R. Calafiori — Knock

#10 E. Eze — Injury

#29 K. Havertz — Knee Injury

#12 J. Timber — Ankle Injury

#23 M. Merino — Foot Injury

#33 R. Calafiori — Knock

#10 E. Eze — Injury

#29 K. Havertz — Knee Injury

#12 J. Timber — Ankle Injury

Atletico Madrid - Arsenal

Quick Take

Context Signals

Atletico Carrying Copa del Rey Hangover

Atletico Defensive Spine Compromised

Arsenal Squeezed Between Title Race and Arteta Future

October 4-0 Result Reframes Metropolitano Edge

Betting Edges

Over 4.5

Under 1.5

Over 9.5

Yes

Model probabilities

Markets to Avoid

Recent Form

Atletico Madrid

Arsenal

League Table

Head-to-Head

Squad & Injuries

Atletico Madrid

Arsenal