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Stockport County - Port Vale
🇬🇧 League OneFinished
Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 18:45
Finished Snapshot
FT1-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-2
Predictions
1W · 10L · 0P
Edges
0W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
67%-33%
Shots
13-10
Shots on Target
2-5
Corners
7-1
Quick Take
Stockport are promotion-chasing at home against relegated Port Vale playing a meaningless dead rubber; motivation asymmetry and structural quality gap make a Stockport win the dominant outcome, but market prices are already at or above fair value—avoid the favorite lines.
Context Signals
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Stockport County:Implied 71.4% significantly exceeds our 68% estimate; market is already pricing in the home advantage and quality gap with minimal cushion.
Double Chance Stockport County or Draw:Implied 90.9% is well above our 84% estimate; the -1.10 odds leave no value margin for a HIGH confidence prediction.
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:Implied 62.5% vs our estimate 56% creates no margin for a MEDIUM-confidence prediction; market overprices the over.
Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Stockport County vs Port Vale presents a textbook motivation asymmetry fixture. Stockport sit 4th in League One (74 points) chasing promotion under stable manager Dave Challinor, while Port Vale have been mathematically relegated to League Two after manager Darren Moore's sacking in December 2025. Jon Brady inherited the doomed side on 6 January 2026 on an 18-month contract, and despite a surprise FA Cup quarter-final run, Port Vale's season is now a dead rubber with nothing to play for—their official X post confirmed this is a penultimate fixture with zero relegation stakes remaining.
Recent Form
Stockport County
W3-1PeterboroughApr 25LEA
L0-1Mansfield TownApr 21LEA
D3-3Exeter CityApr 18LEA
W2-0AFC WimbledonApr 15LEA
L1-3LutonApr 12EFL
D2-2BoltonApr 6LEA
W3-0WycombeApr 3LEA
W3-0AFC WimbledonMar 28LEA
D1-1LutonMar 21LEA
W2-1NorthamptonMar 17LEA
Port Vale
L1-2PlymouthApr 25LEA
L0-1CardiffApr 22LEA
D0-0WiganApr 19LEA
W3-1PeterboroughApr 16LEA
D0-0BarnsleyApr 14LEA
W1-0RotherhamApr 7LEA
L0-7ChelseaApr 4FAC
L0-4WycombeMar 28LEA
L0-1DoncasterMar 24LEA
W1-0BoltonMar 21LEA
League Table
League One 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Stockport County Promotion - League One (Play Offs) | 44 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 67-55 | 74 |
| 23 | Port Vale Relegation - League Two | 44 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 34-58 | 39 |
35pt gap between teamsPort Vale in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
2W · 0D · 1WW0-4Port ValevStockport CountyFeb 10, 2026EFL
W0-3Port ValevStockport CountyOct 27, 2025LEA
L1-0Port ValevStockport CountyAug 30, 2022EFL
Stockport County: 2 clean sheets2.7 goals/game avg