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Southampton - Ipswich Town
🇬🇧 ChampionshipFinished
Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 18:45
Finished Snapshot
FT2-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
7W · 4L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
51%-49%
Shots
18-19
Shots on Target
4-9
Corners
5-11
Quick Take
Southampton's must-win requirement and home strength (12W-3L, 0.77 GA) face Ipswich's draw-friendly motivation and McKenna's defensive setup. High-intensity chess match with both teams likely to score; cards over 4.5 offers +11pt value with Kirk's 4.34 YC/game average in promotio...
Cards Over/UnderOver 4.565%+11.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 54% -> Our estimate: 65% -> Edge: +11pts
- •Referee averages 4.34 cards per match
- •Combined team fouls: 20.9 per game
- •Promotion-decider creates maximum pressure and friction
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Bookmaker implies 67.6% (@ 1.48), but our estimate is 62%. No value; odds are against us.
Goals Over/Under Over 3.5:Implied probability (38%) vs. estimated (58%) creates +20pt spread - exceeds 15pt efficiency threshold. Likely bookmaker error or model miscalibration; avoid.
Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Southampton vs Ipswich Town is a promotion-decider with extreme motivation asymmetry: Ipswich sit second on 76 points and a draw keeps them on course for automatic Premier League promotion, while Southampton (also 76 points, fourth) must win both remaining games to chase automatic promotion and avoid the play-offs. Under new manager Tonda Eckert (appointed December 2025 after Will Still's sacking), Southampton have climbed from 25% win rate to a competitive position, boasting a strong home record: 12 wins in 22 games with only 0.
Recent Form
Southampton
L1-2Manchester CityApr 25FAC
D2-2Bristol CityApr 21CHA
W2-1SwanseaApr 18CHA
W3-0BlackburnApr 14CHA
W2-1DerbyApr 11CHA
W5-1WrexhamApr 7CHA
W2-1ArsenalApr 4FAC
W2-0Oxford UnitedMar 21CHA
W1-0NorwichMar 18CHA
W2-1CoventryMar 14CHA
Ipswich Town
D0-0West BromApr 25CHA
W2-1CharltonApr 22CHA
D2-2MiddlesbroughApr 19CHA
L0-2PortsmouthApr 14CHA
W2-0NorwichApr 11CHA
W2-1BirminghamApr 6CHA
D1-1MillwallMar 21CHA
W2-0Sheffield WednesdayMar 14CHA
D3-3Stoke CityMar 10CHA
D1-1LeicesterMar 7CHA
League Table
Championship 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Southampton Promotion Playoffs | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77-53 | 76 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town Promotion | 44 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 75-45 | 80 |
4pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 2WD1-1IpswichvSouthamptonAug 17, 2025CHA
W1-2IpswichvSouthamptonFeb 1, 2025PL
D1-1SouthamptonvIpswichSep 21, 2024PL
L3-2IpswichvSouthamptonApr 1, 2024CHA
L0-1SouthamptonvIpswichSep 19, 2023CHA
2.6 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Southampton
10 out#4 F. Downes — Suspended
#1 A. McCarthy — Wrist Injury
#2 M. Roerslev Rasmussen — Achilles Tendon Injury
#5 J. Stephens — Inactive
#34 Welington — Injury
#4 F. Downes — Suspended
#1 A. McCarthy — Wrist Injury
#2 M. Roerslev Rasmussen — Achilles Tendon Injury
#5 J. Stephens — Inactive
#34 Welington — Injury
Ipswich Town
8 out#27 D. Button — Calf Injury
C. Townsend — Knee Injury
#3 L. Davis — Inactive
#15 A. Young — Hip Injury
#27 D. Button — Calf Injury
C. Townsend — Knee Injury
#3 L. Davis — Inactive
#15 A. Young — Hip Injury