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Roda JC Kerkrade - RKC Waalwijk
🇳🇱 EredivisieFinished
Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 16:45
Finished Snapshot
FT1-1
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
3W · 7L · 0P
Edges
2W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
54%-46%
Shots
9-15
Shots on Target
2-5
Corners
0-8
Quick Take
Roda host RKC in a Keuken Kampioen play-off eliminator where promotion desperation and asymmetric motivation (RKC relegated, fighting return; Roda with home advantage) drive strong BTTS conviction (70% vs 1.50 odds, +3.3 edge) and RKC's away goals advantage (60% over 1.5, +10 edg...
Both Teams to ScoreYes70%+3.0pp
Total Goals AwayOver 1.5 (RKC Waalwijk)60%+10.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 66.7% → Our estimate: 70% → Edge: +3pts
- •RKC scored in 4 of last 5 matches; Roda scored in 3 of last 5
- •Both H2H meetings this season produced BTTS: 4-1 and 2-1
- •RKC averages 2.6 goals scored; Roda averages 1.2 goals scored
Implied: 50% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +10pts
- •RKC average 2.6 goals scored per match (last 10)
- •RKC scored 2+ in 3 of last 5 matches (4, 5, 2, 3)
- •RKC won 4-1 at Roda earlier this season (Sep 19, 2025)
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:Implied probability (63.7%) at @ 1.57 odds nearly matches predictor estimate (62%), offering minimal edge for MEDIUM confidence. Market is fairly priced; no genuine value to justify play.
Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Roda JC Kerkrade hosts a high-stakes Keuken Kampioen Divisie play-off eliminator against RKC Waalwijk on April 28, 2026, with the winner progressing toward Eredivisie promotion. This is a single-leg tie where both sides carry maximum motivation: Roda defend their home advantage at Parkstad Limburg Stadion under stable manager Kevin van Dessel (36% win rate in 2025-26), while RKC—relegated from the Eredivisie and fighting for immediate return under Sander Duits—arrive carrying significant narrative urgency.
Recent Form
Roda JC Kerkrade
L0-2Jong AZApr 24EER
D2-2EmmenApr 17EER
W3-1FC EindhovenApr 10EER
L0-1Willem IIApr 6EER
W3-0DordrechtApr 3EER
D1-1Helmond SportMar 20EER
L0-1VitesseMar 16EER
D1-1CambuurMar 13EER
L0-2Jong PSV U21Mar 6EER
D2-2Den BoschFeb 27EER
RKC Waalwijk
W4-1Jong PSV U21Apr 24EER
L1-5ADO Den HaagApr 17EER
W5-0EmmenApr 10EER
D2-2Helmond SportApr 6EER
W3-1MVVApr 3EER
L2-3Den BoschMar 21EER
D2-2Almere City FCMar 17EER
W2-1Jong AZMar 13EER
W3-0VVV VenloMar 6EER
W2-1FC EindhovenFeb 27EER
Standings will be available soon.
Head-to-Head
3W · 2D · 0WW1-2WaalwijkvRodaFeb 13, 2026EER
W1-4RodavWaalwijkSep 19, 2025EER
D0-0RodavWaalwijkJul 27, 2024FRI
W2-4RodavWaalwijkJul 23, 2021FRI
D0-0RodavWaalwijkApr 5, 2019EER
Roda JC Kerkrade unbeaten in 5 meetingsRoda JC Kerkrade: 2 clean sheetsRKC Waalwijk: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Roda JC Kerkrade
4 out#18 T. Kother — Knee Injury
#10 J. Schwirten — Knee Injury
#18 T. Kother — Knee Injury
#10 J. Schwirten — Knee Injury
RKC Waalwijk
8 out#17 R. Kuijpers — Knee Injury
T. van de Loo — Knee Injury
#33 F. Al Mazyani — Injury
#2 B. Zorgdrager — Injury
#17 R. Kuijpers — Knee Injury
T. van de Loo — Knee Injury
#33 F. Al Mazyani — Injury
#2 B. Zorgdrager — Injury