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Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle
Copa LibertadoresFinished
Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 22:00
Finished Snapshot
FT2-3
FinishedSettled
Halftime
1-1
Predictions
9W · 3L · 0P
Edges
4W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
44%-56%
Shots
8-14
Shots on Target
4-6
Corners
0-6
Quick Take
IDV lead group with 4 points and dominate Libertad 3W-1L in H2H; Libertad sacked their manager 6 days ago and are winless in Copa (0W-2L). Back IDV to win or draw at 1.48 (+4.4 edge) or IDV win at 2.70 (+7 edge).
Double ChanceDraw or Away (Independiente del Valle)72%+4.4pp
1st Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.570%+3.3pp
Both Teams to ScoreYes58%+5.6pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:Implied odds (44.4%) significantly lag predictor's 56% estimate (+11.6pts edge), but this is a major market efficiently priced by bookmakers. Copa Libertadores group-stage form (Libertad 1, 3 goals in two CL games; IDV vs Rosario 0-0) and Libertad's managerial instability create structural defensibility at tighter totals. Margin insufficient to offset execution risk given market maturity.
Shots Over/Under Over 22.5:Market not available from bookmaker. Prediction: Over 22.5 @ MEDIUM confidence (62% estimated). Cannot assess value without odds.
Away Shots Total Over 14.5:Market not available from bookmaker. Prediction: Over 14.5 @ HIGH confidence (70% estimated). Cannot assess value without odds.
Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Libertad Asuncion arrive at this Copa Libertadores group-stage tie under acute structural pressure. Manager Francisco Arce was sacked on April 22 following a 3-0 loss to Rubio Ñu, and his replacement Juan Eduardo Samudio was appointed just six days before kickoff on April 23—with only one competitive match (a domestic 3-2 win over Olimpia) under his belt. The home side sit bottom of Group H with zero wins, zero draws, and two losses (1 goal for, 4 against), facing genuine elimination arithmetic.
Recent Form
Libertad Asuncion
W3-2OlimpiaApr 25DIV
L0-3Rubio NUApr 21DIV
L0-1Rosario CentralApr 15CON
D1-1Sportivo TrinidenseApr 12DIV
L1-3UCVApr 9CON
L0-1Club GuaraniApr 5DIV
W1-0Deportivo RecoletaMar 30DIV
L0-2Sportivo AmelianoMar 27DIV
L2-3Cerro PortenoMar 21DIV
W2-1Nacional AsuncionMar 18DIV
Independiente del Valle
W2-1Leones del NorteApr 25LIG
W1-0Delfin SCApr 22LIG
L0-2LDU de QuitoApr 19LIG
W3-1UCVApr 16CON
W3-2Deportivo CuencaApr 12LIG
D0-0Rosario CentralApr 9CON
W2-0Orense SCApr 4LIG
W2-1Tecnico UniversitarioMar 22LIG
L0-2EmelecMar 20LIG
D2-2AucasMar 14LIG
League Table
CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1-4 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle Playoffs | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3-1 | 4 |
4pt gap between teams
Head-to-head record not yet available.