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Atletico Lanus - LDU Quito
Copa LibertadoresFinished
Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 22:00
Finished Snapshot
FT1-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
7W · 3L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
55%-45%
Shots
11-8
Shots on Target
5-1
Corners
6-4
Quick Take
Back Both Teams to Score at @ 2.10 (58% confidence vs 47.6% implied; +10.4 edge) — H2H history shows both teams consistently breach defenses (3–1, 1–2 in 2024), and tight Group G standings force attacking football from both. Lanus home fortress (100% recent wins, 0.4 GA) plus LDU's Libertadores scoring capability (2–0 vs Mirassol) align on this market.
Both Teams To ScoreYes58%+10.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Bookmaker odds imply 75.2% probability (Under @ 1.33), significantly higher than our 67% estimate. No margin of safety — odds already price in the slow start pattern aggressively. Vig is favorable but prediction conviction is insufficient.
Total Goals Home Over 0.5:Bookmaker odds imply 84.7% (Over @ 1.18), much higher than our 68% estimate. Despite Lanus home scoring record (3 vs LDU in 2024), the odds offer no value for a MEDIUM confidence play—skew is too wide.
Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Atletico Lanus arrive as clear psychological favorites against LDU Quito, having demolished them 5–2 on aggregate in Copa Sudamericana 2024 with a commanding 3–1 home victory. Playing at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús where they've already beaten Always Ready 1–0 in Group G, Lanus boast a fortress home record (100% wins in their last 5 at this venue) and historically tight defense, conceding just 0.4 goals per match across their last 10.
Recent Form
Atletico Lanus
D0-0Central Cordoba de SantiagoApr 24LIG
L0-1Gimnasia M.Apr 21LIG
W1-0Always ReadyApr 16CON
W1-0BanfieldApr 13LIG
L0-1MirassolApr 8CON
D0-0PlatenseApr 1LIG
L1-2Argentinos JRSMar 27LIG
W1-0Velez SarsfieldMar 21LIG
W5-0Newells Old BoysMar 17LIG
W1-0Estudiantes L.P.Mar 13LIG
LDU Quito
L0-1EmelecApr 25LIG
D0-0AucasApr 23LIG
W2-0Independiente del ValleApr 19LIG
W2-0MirassolApr 15CON
L0-1Delfin SCApr 11LIG
W1-0Always ReadyApr 8CON
L0-2Barcelona SCApr 4LIG
W1-0Manta FCMar 22LIG
W2-0Leones del NorteMar 18LIG
D1-1Universidad CatolicaMar 15LIG
League Table
CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Lanus Copa Sudamericana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 3 |
| 1 | LDU Quito Playoffs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3-0 | 6 |
3pt gap between teamsLDU Quito leads the league
Head-to-Head
1W · 0D · 1WL3-1LanusvLDU de QuitoAug 22, 2024CON
W1-2LDU de QuitovLanusAug 15, 2024CON
3.5 goals/game avg