Back to matches
FC Gil Vicente - Casa Pia Atletico
🇵🇹 Primeira LigaFinished
Monday, April 27, 2026 at 19:15
Finished Snapshot
FT2-1
FinishedSettled
Halftime
1-1
Predictions
5W · 6L · 0P
Edges
0W · 2L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
56%-44%
Shots
12-7
Shots on Target
4-2
Corners
4-3
Quick Take
A low-scoring showdown favours Under 2.5 goals (62% conviction, +3pts edge) and No BTTS (60%, +2pts edge), driven by dominant H2H pattern (1.43 avg goals, 71% without both scoring), Casa Pia's weak away attack (0.73 goals per game), and mutual defensive caution under season-endin...
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.562%+3.0pp
Both Teams to ScoreNo60%+2.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 58.8% → Our estimate: 62% → Edge: +3pts
- •Gil Vicente H2H avg 1.43 goals per match across 7 meetings
- •Casa Pia score 0.6 goals/game away (11 in 15 matches)
- •Last 5 H2H: four of five matches had ≤2 goals
Implied: 57.8% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +2pts
- •BTTS hits only 29% of last 7 H2H meetings
- •Casa Pia failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches
- •Casa Pia average 2.5 shots on target per game in last 10
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
1st Half Goals Over/Under Over 1.5:The predictor shows 70% confidence on Under 1.5 (@ 1.33), which implies 75.2% for Under. This leaves only ~25% for Over 1.5. The odds @ 3.00 imply 33.3% for Over 1.5, which creates an apparent edge. However, this edge is borderline and the predictor's 70% confidence is MEDIUM, not HIGH. With a directional confidence of only 70% and just ~8pts of edge (33.3% implied vs 30% estimated for Over), this does not meet the bar for a MEDIUM confidence recommendation. The odds margin is insufficient to justify the play.
Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Gil Vicente enter this clash as clear structural favourites against a Casa Pia side fighting for Primeira Liga survival. Gil Vicente sit 5th/6th with 46 points at home (8W/3D/4L record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos), while Casa Pia languish 16th with just 26 points from 29 matches, desperately needing to escape the relegation playoff zone. The 20-point league gap and Casa Pia's abysmal away record (3W/3D/9L in 15 trips, 11 goals for / 29 against) present a material home advantage, though Gil Vicente's own five-match winless run tempers optimism.
Recent Form
FC Gil Vicente
L0-1GuimaraesApr 18PRI
D2-2TondelaApr 13PRI
W3-0AVSApr 3PRI
L0-1Santa ClaraMar 21PRI
D2-2AlvercaMar 14PRI
D2-2EstrelaMar 8PRI
L1-2BenficaMar 2PRI
L1-3EstorilFeb 22PRI
W2-1SC BragaFeb 14PRI
W2-1MoreirenseFeb 7PRI
Casa Pia Atletico
L0-1SC BragaApr 23PRI
D0-0Santa ClaraApr 18PRI
L1-3AlvercaApr 12PRI
D1-1BenficaApr 6PRI
L0-4EstrelaMar 20PRI
D0-0EstorilMar 7PRI
D1-1MoreirenseMar 1PRI
L0-2FamalicaoFeb 23PRI
W3-2AroucaFeb 14PRI
D0-0NacionalFeb 8PRI
League Table
Primeira Liga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Gil Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44-31 | 46 |
| 16 | Casa Pia Atletico Liga Portugal (Relegation) | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28-53 | 26 |
20pt gap between teamsCasa Pia Atletico in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
0W · 3D · 2WD1-1Casa PiavGIL VicenteDec 13, 2025PRI
L1-0Casa PiavGIL VicenteFeb 22, 2025PRI
D1-1GIL VicentevCasa PiaSep 22, 2024PRI
D0-0Casa PiavGIL VicenteMar 3, 2024PRI
L2-0GIL VicentevCasa PiaOct 2, 2023PRI
Casa Pia Atletico unbeaten in 5 meetingsCasa Pia Atletico: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg