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Besiktas - Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul
🇹🇷 Süper LigFinished
Monday, April 27, 2026 at 17:00
Finished Snapshot
FT0-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
3W · 8L · 0P
Edges
0W · 2L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
71%-29%
Shots
19-12
Shots on Target
7-3
Corners
5-2
Quick Take
Besiktas are heavy favourites (68% win probability) against relegation-threatened bottom-of-table Karagumruk, supported by 7-match unbeaten H2H, dominant home form, and sharp motivation asymmetry.
1st Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.578%+33.6pp
Asian HandicapHome -1.0 (Besiktas)55%+5.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 44.4% → Our estimate: 78% → Edge: +33.6pts
- •Besiktas avg 1.1 first-half goals/game; scored in last 3 home matches
- •Karagumruk concede 0.6 first-half goals/game; rarely lead at HT
- •Besiktas 78% probability of scoring once in opening 45 min vs 44% market pricing
Implied: 50% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +5pts
- •Besiktas home: 1.93 GF/game vs 1.20 GA; Karagumruk away: 0.80 GF vs 2.07 GA
- •35-point league gap (Besiktas 55 pts, Karagumruk 20 pts)
- •Besiktas unbeaten in 7 H2H (6W 1D); Karagumruk 1W-2D-12L away this season
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Besiktas @ 1.38:Market has repriced Besiktas win probability to 72.5% (implied), exceeding our estimate of 68%, reflecting the impact of goalkeeper Destanoglu's suspension and right-back Murillo's absence. While the directional thesis (home win) remains strong, the fair-value odds offer no edge for a medium-conviction position. The structural advantages (dominant H2H, league gap, away form gap) are already fully priced. Consider Asian Handicap -1.0 instead for better risk-adjusted value.
Double Chance Besiktas or Draw @ 1.10:The 90.9% implied probability from these odds exceeds the prediction estimate of 86%, pricing in additional margin for Besiktas's defensive disruptions. While Karagumruk's 1W-15 away record makes a Karagumruk win the heaviest tail risk, the vig on this heavy favourite is unfavourable. The structure of the market (draw + home win heavily favoured) confirms the underlying thesis, but odds leave no edge for a HIGH-confidence prediction.
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:MEDIUM confidence prediction (64%) lands almost exactly on implied probability (65.4%). Odds offer zero margin above our estimate; even a HIGH-confidence thesis would need substantial edge to justify play here. Borderline mispricing with minimal risk-adjusted value.
Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Besiktas host bottom-of-the-table Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul in a clash of opposing urgencies: the home side fighting for European qualification, the visitors fighting relegation. The structural advantages lean entirely toward Besiktas. They sit 4th with 55 points and have been unbeaten against Karagumruk for seven consecutive meetings (6W, 1D), with a historical pattern of scoring 2.0+ goals per game in this fixture.
Recent Form
Besiktas
W3-0AlanyasporApr 23TÜR
L1-2SamsunsporApr 19SÜP
W4-2AntalyasporApr 10SÜP
L0-1FenerbahçeApr 5SÜP
W2-1KasımpaşaMar 19SÜP
W2-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Mar 15SÜP
L0-1GalatasarayMar 7SÜP
W4-1RizesporMar 4TÜR
W1-0KocaelisporFeb 28SÜP
W4-0GöztepeFeb 22SÜP
Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul
L1-2EyüpsporApr 18SÜP
L0-3KonyasporApr 12SÜP
W2-1RizesporApr 5SÜP
L0-1KayserisporMar 19SÜP
W2-0FenerbahçeMar 13SÜP
D1-1Gaziantep FKMar 8SÜP
W2-0FethiyesporMar 3TÜR
L1-3TrabzonsporFeb 27SÜP
D0-0SamsunsporFeb 22SÜP
L2-3KasımpaşaFeb 16SÜP
League Table
Süper Lig 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Besiktas Conference League Qualification | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 54-36 | 55 |
| 18 | Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul Relegation | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 27-53 | 20 |
35pt gap between teamsFatih Karagumruk Istanbul in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
2W · 2D · 1WW0-2Fatih KaragümrükvBeşiktaşNov 30, 2025SÜP
D1-1BeşiktaşvFatih KaragümrükMar 28, 2024FRI
L3-0BeşiktaşvFatih KaragümrükJan 13, 2024SÜP
W0-1Fatih KaragümrükvBeşiktaşAug 14, 2023SÜP
D1-1Fatih KaragümrükvBeşiktaşJan 31, 2023SÜP
Besiktas: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Besiktas
6 out#30 E. Destanoglu — Yellow Cards
#17 K. Kayra Yilmaz — Inactive
#62 M. Murillo — Yellow Cards
#30 E. Destanoglu — Yellow Cards
#17 K. Kayra Yilmaz — Inactive
#62 M. Murillo — Yellow Cards
Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul
10 out#37 J. Camacho — Inactive
#15 Kone — Inactive
#17 A. Sivri — Inactive
#80 S. Babicka — Injury
#10 D. Verde — Injury
#37 J. Camacho — Inactive
#15 Kone — Inactive
#17 A. Sivri — Inactive
#80 S. Babicka — Injury
#10 D. Verde — Injury