BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Stuttgart1Werder Bremen1

HT 0–1Sun 26 Apr 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 20–9On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 14–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Apr 2026, 20:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Stuttgart are strong home favorites (62%) with an elite home record, but Bremen's recent H2H dominance (6-2 win, unbeaten in 4/5) and Thioune's stabilization period offset the 25-point league gap and injury crisis.

Value lies in **Corners Over 10.5** (2.30 odds, 56% model confidence) rather than match winner at 1.55.

Context

Grull (attacker) and Bittencourt (midfielder) both suspended via yellow card accumulation
- Topp (attacker), Weiser, Adeh (midfielder), Agu (defender), Malatini (defender), Hein (GK) all confirmed out injured
- Boniface (main striker) and Njinmah (midfielder) listed as questionable — potential 10 total absences
- Bremen managed only 2 shots on target and 6 total shots in their last away match (L 1-3 at Köln)
Last 5 H2H: Bremen won 3, drew 1, Stuttgart won 1 — Bremen dominant despite inferior league position
- Most recent meeting (Dec 2025): Bremen 0-4 Stuttgart was actually a Stuttgart away win, but prior 4 meetings all went Bremen's way
- Bremen won 2-1 at Stuttgart in April 2025, showing ability to win at this venue
- Average of 3.8 goals per meeting across last 5 H2H encounters
Thioune appointed Feb 4 after Bremen were 1 point above relegation zone following 10 winless games
- Under Thioune: W 3-1 vs Hamburg (H), L 1-3 at Köln (A), W 1-0 at Wolfsburg (A), L 1-2 vs Leipzig (H) in last 4
- Bremen's away wins under Thioune came against 10-man Wolfsburg (red card) and 10-man Union Berlin
- New manager effect now entering 12th week — typically the bounce begins fading after 8-12 weeks
Stuttgart eliminated by Porto in Europa League Round of 16 (L 1-2 home, L 0-2 away) on March 19
- Since Europa exit: Stuttgart have played 4 league-only games (W vs Leipzig, D vs Mainz, W 4-0 vs Hamburg, L at Bayern)
- Stuttgart have had full weeks to prepare for each Bundesliga match since mid-March
- 4th place with 56 points — still battling for Champions League qualification, maintaining high motivation

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Stuttgart

1.54fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 65%

−3.0ppshort

Stuttgart's 11W-2D-2L home record and Bremen's 3W-3D-9L away record establish a strong structural advantage, but recent H2H (6-2 Bremen, unbeaten 5/7) suggests market may be correctly pricing a tighter contest than raw form suggests. No edge here—market has priced in the uncertainty.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Stuttgart or Draw

1.12fair 1.21

BetBugs 83% · Market 89%

−6.0ppshort

The 1.13 odds imply 89% (almost a guarantee), which overshoots the predictor's 83% estimate by embedding excessive safety. While Stuttgart's home dominance + Bremen's injury crisis supports a strong Stuttgart/Draw case, the odds leave no margin. High confidence in the direction, but odds fail to compensate for the risk.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's elite home record combined with Bremen's dreadful away form and decimated squad (losing key attackers to suspension and injury) creates a strong structural home-win scenario, despite some H2H variance.
- Stuttgart home record 2025-26: 11W-2D-2L, 26 GF / 14 GA in 15 home matches
- Bremen away record 2025-26: 3W-3D-9L, 17 GF / 27 GA in 15 away matches
- Bremen missing 7+ players confirmed (Grull, Topp, Bittencourt suspended/injured; Boniface doubtful)
- Stuttgart 4th (56 pts) vs Bremen 15th (31 pts) — 25-point gap in standings
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostStuttgartEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bremen winning away at a top-4 side while missing multiple key players across all positions is statistically improbable given their 20% away win rate this season.
- Stuttgart home: only 2 losses in 15 home games this season
- Bremen away: 9 losses in 15 away games this season
- Bremen's devastating injury/suspension crisis across attack and midfield
- Stuttgart averaging 16.6 shots and 6.9 SOT per game (last 10)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonStuttgart or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bremen's chronic first-half struggles (0.3 GF, trailing 50% of the time) combined with Stuttgart's stronger first-half output at home gives Stuttgart a tangible HT advantage.
- Stuttgart avg 1.0 first-half goals scored (last 10 matches)
- Bremen avg only 0.3 first-half goals scored (last 10 matches)
- Bremen trailing at HT in 50% of recent games; leading only 10%
- Stuttgart leading at HT in 30% of recent games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostStuttgartEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The structural gap between Stuttgart's home dominance and Bremen's dismal away record, amplified by Bremen's crippling absences, supports a margin of victory greater than 1 for Stuttgart, though at moderate confidence.
- Stuttgart home GD: +12 in 15 games (26 GF - 14 GA), avg +0.80/game
- Bremen away GD: -10 in 15 games (17 GF - 27 GA), avg -0.67/game
- Bremen's massive injury/suspension list weakens squad significantly
- Stuttgart won 4-0 at Bremen in most recent H2H (Dec 2025)
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostStuttgart -1Estimated chance48%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H historically produces goals (avg 3.8 in last 5), Stuttgart's home attacking output is strong, and Bremen's leaky away defense (1.80 GA/away game) should fuel an open contest.
- Stuttgart recent average: 1.9 GF + 1.5 GA = 3.4 total goals per game (last 10)
- Stuttgart home: 26 GF + 14 GA = 2.67 goals/game at home this season
- Bremen concede 1.80 goals/game away (27 GA in 15 away)
- Last 5 H2H: 6, 4, 4, 3, 2 goals — average 3.8 per meeting
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While H2H suggests BTTS is possible, Bremen's heavy attacking absences and Stuttgart's solid home defense (0.93 GA/game) make it only a coin flip whether Bremen can find the net.
- Stuttgart concede 0.93 goals/home game (14 GA in 15 home matches)
- Bremen score only 1.13 goals/away game (17 in 15 away)
- Bremen missing key attackers Grull (suspended), Topp (injured), Boniface (doubtful)
- 3 of last 5 H2H saw both teams score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's strong home defensive record meets a severely weakened Bremen attack missing at least 2 confirmed attackers and potentially their main striker, significantly boosting clean sheet probability.
- Stuttgart concede only 0.93 goals/home game this season
- Bremen avg only 4.6 SOT per game (last 10) and 1.13 GF away
- Bremen missing Grull, Topp (attackers), Bittencourt (creative MID) — all confirmed out
- Boniface (key striker) listed as questionable with knee issue
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostWerder Bremen not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's prolific home scoring (1.73/game) against Bremen's porous away defense (1.80 GA/game) strongly supports at least 2 Stuttgart goals.
- Stuttgart home: 26 GF in 15 games = 1.73 goals/home game
- Stuttgart avg 6.9 SOT per game across last 10 matches
- Bremen concede 1.80 goals/away game (27 in 15 away games)
- Last 5 H2H: Stuttgart scored 2, 1, 2, 1, 2 = avg 1.6 goals vs Bremen
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostStuttgart over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bremen's extremely low first-half goal production (0.3/game) pulls the first-half total down, and their depleted squad will likely prioritize defensive structure early, keeping the first half relatively tight.
- Bremen avg 0.3 first-half goals + 0.8 first-half goals conceded = 1.1 total FH goals (last 10)
- Stuttgart avg 1.0 first-half goals + 0.8 first-half goals conceded = 1.8 total FH goals (last 10)
- Combined first-half goal expectation ~1.4 goals
- Bremen's depleted attack likely to be cautious early
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's dominant territorial play at home combined with their shot volume naturally generates corners, and the combined average of 11.1 comfortably exceeds the 9.5 line.
- Stuttgart avg 6.4 corners per game (last 10 matches)
- Bremen avg 4.7 corners per game (last 10 matches)
- Combined average: 11.1 corners per match
- Stuttgart's high possession (59.8%) and shot volume (16.6/game) generates corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bremen's higher foul and card averages, combined with the stakes-driven intensity of a relegation-battling team playing at a top-4 side, point to a card-heavy match exceeding 3.5 total yellows.
- Stuttgart avg 2.0 yellow cards per game (last 10)
- Bremen avg 2.4 yellow cards per game (last 10); also avg 10.6 fouls/game
- Combined yellow card average: 4.4 per match
- Relegation-threatened Bremen likely to commit tactical fouls to disrupt Stuttgart's attacks
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-4Werder BremenvVfB StuttgartDec 14, 2025BL

W1-2VfB StuttgartvWerder BremenApr 13, 2025BL

D2-2Werder BremenvVfB StuttgartNov 30, 2024BL

L2-1Werder BremenvVfB StuttgartApr 21, 2024BL

L2-0VfB StuttgartvWerder BremenDec 2, 2023BL

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Stuttgart Champions League	30	17	5	8	62-42	56	LWLWW
15	Werder Bremen	30	8	7	15	35-53	31	WLLWL

25pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Stuttgart

L2-4Bayern MünchenApr 19BL

W4-0Hamburger SVApr 12BL

L0-2Borussia DortmundApr 4BL

W5-2FC AugsburgMar 22BL

L0-2FC PortoMar 19UEF

W1-0RB LeipzigMar 15BL

L1-2FC PortoMar 12UEF

D2-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 7BL

W4-0VfL WolfsburgMar 1BL

L0-1CelticFeb 26UEF

Werder Bremen

W3-1Hamburger SVApr 18BL

L1-31. FC KölnApr 12BL

L1-2RB LeipzigApr 4BL

W1-0VfL WolfsburgMar 21BL

L0-2FSV Mainz 05Mar 15BL

W4-1Union BerlinMar 8BL

W2-01. FC HeidenheimFeb 28BL

L1-2FC St. PauliFeb 22BL

L0-3Bayern MünchenFeb 14BL

L0-1SC FreiburgFeb 7BL

Squad & Injuries

Stuttgart

4 out

Attackers7

Midfielders2/11

×#45

Defenders2/11

×#29

Goalkeeper4

#29 F. Jeltsch — Injury

#45 L. Jovanovic — Back Injury

#29 F. Jeltsch — Injury

#45 L. Jovanovic — Back Injury

Werder Bremen

20 out

Attackers6/6

×#17

×#9

×#44

×#17

×#9

×#44

Midfielders6/8

×#34

×#10

×#11

×#34

×#10

×#11

Defenders4/11

×#27

×#22

×#27

×#22

Goalkeeper2/3

×#13

#34 W. Adeh — Knee Injury

#27 F. Agu — Muscle Injury

#10 L. Bittencourt — Yellow Cards

#17 M. Grull — Yellow Cards

#13 K. Hein — Hand Injury

#22 J. Malatini — Ankle Injury

#9 K. Topp — Knee Injury

M. Weiser — Knee Injury

#44 V. Boniface — Knee Injury

#11 J. Njinmah — Injury

#34 W. Adeh — Knee Injury

#27 F. Agu — Muscle Injury

#10 L. Bittencourt — Yellow Cards

#17 M. Grull — Yellow Cards

#13 K. Hein — Hand Injury

#22 J. Malatini — Ankle Injury

#9 K. Topp — Knee Injury

M. Weiser — Knee Injury

#44 V. Boniface — Knee Injury

#11 J. Njinmah — Injury