Ligue 1Full time

Predictions graded

Le Havre4Metz4

HT 2–2Sun 26 Apr 2026, 15:15 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges0–30%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Apr 2026, 20:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Le Havre's home stability and clean sheet dominance over Metz (1 goal in 5 H2H meetings) combined with Metz's decimated squad, 14-match winless run, and fractured dressing room creates a strong Under 2.5 goals edge (68% vs.

54.1% implied at 1.85); avoid the match winner at current odds (1.62) but target low-scoring and cagey first-half outcomes for value.

Context

Tavenot (appointed January 2026) publicly denounced lack of 'belief' in club culture in early April
- Metz on 14-match winless streak as of mid-April 2026
- Rock bottom in Ligue 1 with 15 points from 30 games, 7 matches remaining
- Average monthly gross salary cut 20% from €35k to €28k, signaling financial distress
GK Ba (injury), CB Colin (injury), CB Ballo-Toure (injury) all confirmed out
- Attacker Diallo confirmed out; attacker Melieres listed as questionable
- Midfielders Traore (calf), Munongo (knee), Mangondo (knee) all confirmed out
- Depleted spine forces emergency lineup for a team already averaging 0.6 goals/game over last 10
H2H results: 0-0 (Sep 2025), 0-1 Metz win (Apr 2024), 0-0 (Oct 2023), 1-1 (Mar 2023), 2-0 Le Havre (Oct 2022)
- Only 4 total goals scored across all 5 meetings (0.8 goals per game)
- BTTS landed in just 1 of 5 meetings; 4 of 5 featured at least one clean sheet
- Le Havre unbeaten in last 5 H2H (2W, 3D)
Le Havre home record: W5 D7 L3 — draw rate of 47%
- Last two home results: 1-1 vs Auxerre, 0-0 vs Lyon
- Home goals scored: 1.07 per game — limited attacking output
- Le Havre's last 5 home games include 3 draws, suggesting structural tendency rather than anomaly

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Le Havre's solid home defensive record against the league's worst away team, compounded by Metz's massive injury list and severe morale crisis under a 14-match winless run, gives Le Havre a clear structural and psychological edge despite their own draw-heavy tendencies.
- Le Havre home record: W5 D7 L3 (15 games, 2025-26 season)
- Metz away record: W1 D2 L12, 13GF/40GA (15 games, 2025-26 season)
- Metz on 14-match winless run with confirmed dressing room crisis (April 2026)
- Metz missing 7+ players including CB Colin, CB Ballo-Toure, attacker Diallo
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLe HavreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Metz's catastrophic away record (1 win in 15), combined with 14-match winless run, severe squad depletion, and Le Havre's unbeaten H2H run, makes a Metz away win extremely improbable.
- Metz away: W1 D2 L12 (6.7% win rate away, 2025-26 season)
- Le Havre unbeaten in last 5 H2H meetings (2W 3D, 2022-2025)
- Metz 14-match winless streak as of mid-April 2026
- Metz's 15 total points from 30 games — worst in Ligue 1
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLe Havre or DrawEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Le Havre's draw-heavy profile at home (47% draws), Metz's historically awful away form and compounding crises tilt the probability toward a Le Havre win sufficiently to back them on the Asian handicap.
- Le Havre home: W5 D7 L3; wins 33% of home games (2025-26)
- Metz away: W1 D2 L12; loses 80% of away games (2025-26)
- Metz 14-match winless run with confirmed squad/morale crisis
- Le Havre unbeaten in 5 H2H meetings (2W 3D)
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostLe Havre -0.5Estimated chance45%

Goals0 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The historically ultra-low-scoring H2H (0.8 GPG across 5 meetings) combined with both teams' poor attacking output this season and Le Havre's strong home defensive record strongly favors an under outcome.
- H2H last 5: total 4 goals across 5 matches (0.8 goals/game average)
- Le Havre home: 1.07 scored, 0.87 conceded per game (season 2025-26)
- Le Havre season avg 0.9 goals scored; Metz season avg 0.6 goals scored (last 10)
- 3 of Le Havre's last 5 home games finished with ≤2 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Metz's inability to score against Le Havre historically (1 goal in 5 H2H) and their depleted attacking options, combined with Le Havre's home defensive solidity, create a genuine clean sheet opportunity.
- Le Havre home GA: 13 in 15 games (0.87 per game, 2025-26 season)
- Metz away GF: 13 in 15 games (0.87 per game) — but 0.6 GPG in last 10 overall
- H2H last 5: Metz scored only 1 goal total across 5 meetings
- Metz missing attacker Diallo and attacker Melieres questionable
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostMetz not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern overwhelmingly favors BTTS No (4/5 recent meetings), reinforced by Metz's depleted attack and poor away scoring combined with Le Havre's home defensive stability.
- H2H last 5: BTTS hit only once (1-1 in March 2023); 4 of 5 had at least one clean sheet
- Metz away: 0.87 GF per game; scored 0 in recent draws at Rennes and Nantes
- Le Havre home concede just 0.87 goals per game (2025-26)
- Metz missing key attacker Diallo and midfielder Traore
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are extremely slow starters — Metz has not led at half-time in any of their last 10, and 3 of 5 H2H went to the break goalless, supporting a cagey first half.
- Le Havre avg first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 1.0 conceded (last 10 — but home splits better)
- Metz avg first-half goals: 0.3 scored, 0.9 conceded (last 10)
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings were 0-0 at half-time
- Metz leading at HT in 0% of last 10 games; Le Havre leading in just 10%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Metz's historically barren H2H scoring record against Le Havre (1 goal in 5 games) plus their season-long away impotence and depleted attack makes a Metz blank highly probable.
- Metz scored 0 goals in 3 of last 5 away matches (at Rennes, Nantes implied by 0-0 scorelines)
- Metz avg 0.6 goals per game over last 10 matches
- H2H: Metz scored only 1 goal in 5 meetings vs Le Havre (2022-2025)
- Metz missing attacker Diallo and midfielder Traore confirmed out
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostMetz under 0.5Estimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Le Havre's draw-heavy home profile caps certainty, their historical H2H dominance (2-0 clean sheet win at home) and Metz's crippled attack offer value for a Le Havre win-to-nil scenario.
- Le Havre last H2H home win: 2-0 vs Metz (Oct 2022, clean sheet)
- Metz scored only 1 goal across 5 H2H meetings (2022-2025)
- Le Havre home: 0.87 GA/game; Metz away: 0.87 GF/game
- Metz missing key attackers Diallo (injured) and Melieres (questionable)
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate modest corner counts and the expected low-scoring, cagey nature of this match — supported by H2H patterns — points to total corners staying below 10.
- Le Havre avg 3.9 corners; opponent avg ~5.2 (last 10 matches)
- Metz avg 4.4 corners; opponent avg ~5.4 (last 10 matches)
- Le Havre home vs Lyon: only 4 total corners; vs Auxerre: 10 total
- Low-tempo, low-scoring profile for both teams suggests limited attacking entries
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High combined foul counts from both teams, Le Havre's elevated red card rate this season, and the tactical tension of a relegation-pressured fixture support 4+ total cards.
- Le Havre avg 1.9 YC + 0.6 RC per game (last 10 matches)
- Metz avg 1.9 YC per game (last 10 matches)
- Combined fouls average: 25.9 per game (Le Havre 13.4 + Metz 12.5)
- Le Havre received 3 yellows + 1 red vs Angers; Metz received 3 yellows vs Rennes
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0MetzvLe HavreSep 28, 2025L1

L0-1Le HavrevMetzApr 21, 2024L1

D0-0MetzvLe HavreOct 29, 2023L1

D1-1MetzvLe HavreMar 13, 2023LIG

W2-0Le HavrevMetzOct 24, 2022LIG

Le Havre: 3 clean sheetsMetz: 3 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Le Havre	30	6	12	12	25-38	30	DDDLD
18	Metz Relegation	30	3	6	21	27-66	15	LLDDL

15pt gap between teamsMetz in relegation zone

Recent Form

Le Havre

D1-1AngersApr 18L1

D1-1NiceApr 12L1

D1-1AuxerreApr 5L1

L2-3Paris FCMar 22L1

D0-0LyonMar 15L1

L0-2Stade Brestois 29Mar 8L1

L0-1Paris Saint GermainFeb 28L1

L0-2NantesFeb 22L1

W2-1ToulouseFeb 15L1

W2-1StrasbourgFeb 8L1

Metz

L1-3Paris FCApr 19L1

L1-3MarseilleApr 10L1

D0-0NantesApr 5L1

D0-0RennesMar 22L1

L3-4ToulouseMar 15L1

L0-3LensMar 8L1

L0-1Stade Brestois 29Mar 1L1

L0-3Paris Saint GermainFeb 21L1

L1-3AuxerreFeb 15L1

D0-0LilleFeb 6L1

Squad & Injuries

Le Havre

8 out

Attackers9

Midfielders4/12

×#94

×#14

×#94

×#14

Defenders4/9

×#93

×#29

×#93

×#29

Goalkeeper4

#93 A. Sangante — Red Card

#94 A. Toure — Knee Injury

#29 S. Zagadou — Injury

#14 R. Ndiaye — Inactive

#93 A. Sangante — Red Card

#94 A. Toure — Knee Injury

#29 S. Zagadou — Injury

#14 R. Ndiaye — Inactive

Metz

18 out

Attackers4/6

×#30

×#25

×#30

×#25

Midfielders6/11

×#33

×#8

×#34

×#33

×#8

×#34

Defenders4/9

×#97

×#2

×#97

×#2

Goalkeeper2/4

×#40

#40 O. Ba — Injury

#97 F. Ballo-Toure — Injury

#2 M. Colin — Injury

#30 H. Diallo — Injury

J. Mangondo — Knee Injury

#33 B. Munongo — Knee Injury

#8 B. Traore — Calf Injury

#34 N. Mbala — Inactive

#25 C. Melieres — Injury

#40 O. Ba — Injury

#97 F. Ballo-Toure — Injury

#2 M. Colin — Injury

#30 H. Diallo — Injury

J. Mangondo — Knee Injury

#33 B. Munongo — Knee Injury

#8 B. Traore — Calf Injury

#34 N. Mbala — Inactive

#25 C. Melieres — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Over 10.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Le Havre

Metz

Squad & Injuries

Le Havre

Metz