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Le Havre - Metz
🇫🇷 Ligue 1Finished
Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 15:15
Finished Snapshot
FT4-4
FinishedSettled
Halftime
2-2
Predictions
2W · 9L · 0P
Edges
0W · 3L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
47%-53%
Shots
14-12
Shots on Target
5-5
Corners
6-4
Quick Take
Le Havre's home stability and clean sheet dominance over Metz (1 goal in 5 H2H meetings) combined with Metz's decimated squad, 14-match winless run, and fractured dressing room creates a strong Under 2.5 goals edge (68% vs.
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.568%+13.9pp
Corners Over/UnderOver 10.548%+8.0pp
1st Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 0.542%+7.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Le Havre @ 1.62:Market odds of 1.62 (61.7% implied) align with Le Havre's structural edge but do not represent a mispricing. The home team's 47% draw rate at this venue and Metz's crisis are already reflected in the pricing.
Double Chance Le Havre or Draw @ 1.15:At 1.15, the odds (86.96% implied) match the predictor's 87% HIGH confidence estimate, leaving no margin for error or variance. The vig is substantial and eliminates practical edge.
Corners Over/Under Under 9.5:Tight pricing (implied 57.1% vs. predictor 60%) yields only 2.9pts edge—below MEDIUM confidence threshold. Market has efficiently priced the low-tempo profile. Better value exists at 10.5 threshold where desperation corner pressure is underweighted.
Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Le Havre host Metz in a Ligue 1 clash with starkly asymmetric motivation and structural conditions. Metz arrive in existential crisis: rock bottom on 15 points from 30 games, on a 14-match winless run, with manager Benoit Tavenot publicly denouncing a lack of "belief" in club culture in early April 2026. They face relegation with seven matches remaining and have crippled their squad with seven key players unavailable—including goalkeepers (Ba), both centre-backs (Colin, Ballo-Toure), lead attacker Diallo, and three midfielders (Traore, Munongo, Mangondo).
Recent Form
Le Havre
D1-1AngersApr 18L1
D1-1NiceApr 12L1
D1-1AuxerreApr 5L1
L2-3Paris FCMar 22L1
D0-0LyonMar 15L1
L0-2Stade Brestois 29Mar 8L1
L0-1Paris Saint GermainFeb 28L1
L0-2NantesFeb 22L1
W2-1ToulouseFeb 15L1
W2-1StrasbourgFeb 8L1
Metz
L1-3Paris FCApr 19L1
L1-3MarseilleApr 10L1
D0-0NantesApr 5L1
D0-0RennesMar 22L1
L3-4ToulouseMar 15L1
L0-3LensMar 8L1
L0-1Stade Brestois 29Mar 1L1
L0-3Paris Saint GermainFeb 21L1
L1-3AuxerreFeb 15L1
D0-0LilleFeb 6L1
League Table
Ligue 1 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Havre | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 25-38 | 30 |
| 18 | Metz Relegation | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27-66 | 15 |
15pt gap between teamsMetz in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
1W · 3D · 1WD0-0MetzvLe HavreSep 28, 2025L1
L0-1Le HavrevMetzApr 21, 2024L1
D0-0MetzvLe HavreOct 29, 2023L1
D1-1MetzvLe HavreMar 13, 2023LIG
W2-0Le HavrevMetzOct 24, 2022LIG
Le Havre: 3 clean sheetsMetz: 3 clean sheets1 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Le Havre
8 out#93 A. Sangante — Red Card
#94 A. Toure — Knee Injury
#29 S. Zagadou — Injury
#14 R. Ndiaye — Inactive
#93 A. Sangante — Red Card
#94 A. Toure — Knee Injury
#29 S. Zagadou — Injury
#14 R. Ndiaye — Inactive
Metz
18 out#40 O. Ba — Injury
#97 F. Ballo-Toure — Injury
#2 M. Colin — Injury
#30 H. Diallo — Injury
J. Mangondo — Knee Injury
#33 B. Munongo — Knee Injury
#8 B. Traore — Calf Injury
#34 N. Mbala — Inactive
#25 C. Melieres — Injury
#40 O. Ba — Injury
#97 F. Ballo-Toure — Injury
#2 M. Colin — Injury
#30 H. Diallo — Injury
J. Mangondo — Knee Injury
#33 B. Munongo — Knee Injury
#8 B. Traore — Calf Injury
#34 N. Mbala — Inactive
#25 C. Melieres — Injury