Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Fiorentina0Sassuolo0

HT 0–0Sun 26 Apr 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 22–11On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Apr 2026, 19:43 · Europe/Bucharest

**TLDR:** Fiorentina hold home advantage and relegation urgency, but are crippled by defensive injuries (four first-choice defenders out) and Conference League burnout—while Sassuolo's manager Grosso is distracted by his imminent Fiorentina job negotiations.

Both Teams to Score (1.70 @ 68% probability) and Cards Over 4.5 (2.20 @ 68% probability) offer +20+ point edges in a volatile fixture defined by recent 3-1 Sassuolo win and mutual goal-heavy patterns.

Context

Gosens (injury), Pongracic (yellow card suspension), Lamptey (knee), Parisi (inactive) all confirmed missing
- Fortini (back injury) listed as questionable — could be 5th defender unavailable
- Kean (calf) missing removes Fiorentina's primary striker option
- Fiorentina already concede 1.25 goals/game at home this season even at full strength
Sportmediaset reports Grosso is 'one of the main candidates' for the Fiorentina job, with separation from Sassuolo described as imminent
- Paratici actively pursuing Grosso alongside Maresca and Tedesco — concrete interest not just speculation
- Sassuolo players may sense instability with manager's contract future uncertain before this fixture
- Grosso simultaneously linked to Bologna, compounding the distraction from match preparation
Lost 3-0 away to Crystal Palace (Apr 9), won 2-1 at home (Apr 16) — eliminated from Conference League QF on aggregate
- Yahoo Sports and club sources cite 'lack of motivation' following European exit
- Artemio Franchi stadium under redevelopment adds off-pitch distraction and disruption
- Fiorentina's last 10 matches span 3 competitions in 7 weeks — heavy schedule fatigue factor
Berardi suspended after red card — Sassuolo have accumulated 0.8 red cards/game over last 10 matches
- Boloca (muscle injury) confirmed missing, weakening central midfield options
- Defenders Cande and Pieragnolo both out with knee injuries, mirroring Fiorentina's defensive crisis
- Romagna (defender, knee) and Bakola (midfielder) both listed as questionable — further squad depth concerns

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fiorentina's relegation survival stakes (8 pts from drop) provide urgent motivation that Sassuolo's comfortable midtable position cannot match, amplified by Grosso's reported managerial distraction undermining away team focus.
- Fiorentina form DWWDW (last 5 Serie A), on 3-match unbeaten run
- Fiorentina 8 pts above relegation — strong survival motivation vs Sassuolo's nothing-to-play-for 10th
- Sassuolo manager Grosso reportedly distracted by Fiorentina coaching pursuit (April 2026)
- Fiorentina hold 5W-3L home H2H record vs Sassuolo historically
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFiorentinaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's poor away win rate (31%) combined with Fiorentina's must-win relegation context and current unbeaten run makes an away win improbable, strongly favoring the home side or draw.
- Fiorentina form DWWDW: 3W 2D 0L last 5 matches across competitions
- Sassuolo away record: 5W-4D-7L this season (31% win rate away)
- Fiorentina's relegation urgency (36 pts, 8 above drop) vs Sassuolo's midtable comfort
- Sassuolo trailing at HT in 60% of recent matches, suggesting slow starts away
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFiorentina or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring rates and Fiorentina's pattern of slow starts at home (leading at HT only 30%) suggest the most likely half-time outcome is a draw, with goals coming predominantly in the second half.
- Fiorentina leading at HT only 30% of recent matches; trailing 20%
- Sassuolo leading at HT only 30% but trailing 60% of recent matches
- Combined first-half goals: Fiorentina 0.5 GF + 0.4 GA; Sassuolo 0.6 GF + 0.9 GA
- Fiorentina's last 2 Serie A home matches: HT results were 0-0 (Verona), 1-0 (Lazio)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance52%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of mutual scoring (4/5 meetings), combined with both teams' defensive absences and Fiorentina's leaky home record (20 goals conceded in 16 home games), strongly supports both teams finding the net.
- H2H: Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 meetings (2023-2025)
- Fiorentina home season record: 20GF/20GA in 16 games (1.25 GA/game)
- Sassuolo away record: 20GF in 16 away games (1.25 GF/game away)
- Both teams missing key defenders (Fiorentina: Gosens, Pongracic suspended; Sassuolo: Cande, Pieragnolo)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The overwhelmingly goal-heavy H2H record (avg 3.6 goals, 4/5 over 2.5) is the primary driver, reinforced by Sassuolo's high-conceding tendency (1.5 GA last 10) and defensive absences on both sides.
- H2H last 5 meetings average 3.6 goals/game; 4/5 had 3+ goals
- Fiorentina recent form: 1.4 GF + 0.9 GA = 2.3 total/game (last 10)
- Sassuolo recent form: 1.4 GF + 1.5 GA = 2.9 total/game (last 10)
- Both teams missing key defenders increasing vulnerability
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half goal averages (Fiorentina 0.9 combined, Sassuolo 1.5 combined FH goals) and Fiorentina's pattern of slow home starts suggest limited first-half scoring.
- Fiorentina avg 0.5 first-half goals scored + 0.4 conceded = 0.9 total FH goals (last 10)
- Sassuolo avg 0.6 FH goals scored + 0.9 conceded = 1.5 total FH goals (last 10)
- Fiorentina leading at HT only 30%, Sassuolo trailing at HT 60% — suggesting cagey openings
- Fiorentina's last 3 home Serie A matches: 0-0 HT (Verona), 1-0 HT (Lazio), 1-1 HT (Crystal Palace ECL)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's high away concession rate (1.31/game season, 1.5/game recent) combined with Fiorentina's historically prolific home H2H scoring (avg 3.3 goals in last 3 home meetings) supports multiple Fiorentina goals.
- Fiorentina avg 1.4 goals/game recent form (last 10 matches)
- Sassuolo concede 1.5 goals/game (last 10) and 1.31 GA/game away this season
- H2H: Fiorentina scored 5, 3, 2 goals in last 3 home meetings vs Sassuolo
- Fiorentina's relegation desperation boosts attacking intent despite Kean's absence
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFiorentina over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fiorentina's depleted defense (Pongracic suspended, Gosens injured) combined with Sassuolo's proven ability to score against them (goals in 4/5 H2H) and consistent away scoring (1.25/game) makes a Fiorentina clean sheet unlikely.
- Fiorentina missing 3 first-choice defenders (Gosens, Pongracic suspended, Parisi, Lamptey)
- Sassuolo scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings including 3-1 win in Dec 2025
- Fiorentina home: conceded 20 goals in 16 home games (1.25 GA/game)
- Sassuolo score 1.25 goals/game away this season (20 in 16)
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSassuolo to scoreEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average of ~4.8 per match from both teams' recent form, amplified by the high-stakes relegation context driving physical play, makes 4+ total cards highly probable.
- Fiorentina avg 2.6 yellows/game + opponent avg ~2.2 = 4.8 total (last 10)
- Sassuolo avg 2.2 yellows/game (last 10); combined baseline ~4.8 cards/match
- Fiorentina's relegation pressure + Sassuolo's physical counter-style (avg 10.8 fouls) elevate card potential
- Fiorentina recent matches: 4 yellows vs Lecce, 5 vs Crystal Palace, 3 vs Lazio
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages from recent form (~9.2 for Fiorentina matches, ~9+ baseline) sit right around the 8.5 line, but variance is high making this a low-confidence lean toward over.
- Fiorentina avg 4.4 corners won + opponents avg ~4.8 = ~9.2 total (last 10)
- Sassuolo avg 4.7 corners won (last 10 matches)
- H2H pattern of high-scoring, open games suggests attacking play producing corners
- Fiorentina recent home: vs Lazio 5+6=11, vs Crystal Palace 6+1=7 corners total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance45%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

L3-1SassuolovFiorentinaDec 6, 2025SA

W5-1FiorentinavSassuoloApr 28, 2024SA

L1-0SassuolovFiorentinaJan 6, 2024SA

W1-3SassuolovFiorentinaJun 2, 2023SA

W2-1FiorentinavSassuoloJan 7, 2023SA

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Fiorentina	33	8	12	13	38-45	36	DWWDW
10	Sassuolo	33	13	6	14	41-44	45	WLWDL

9pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Fiorentina

D1-1LecceApr 20SA

W2-1Crystal PalaceApr 16UEF

W1-0LazioApr 13SA

L0-3Crystal PalaceApr 9UEF

W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 4SA

D1-1InterMar 22SA

W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 19UEF

W4-1CremoneseMar 16SA

W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 12UEF

D0-0ParmaMar 8SA

Sassuolo

W2-1ComoApr 17SA

L1-2GenoaApr 12SA

W2-1CagliariApr 4SA

D1-1JuventusMar 21SA

L0-1BolognaMar 15SA

L1-2LazioMar 9SA

W2-1AtalantaMar 1SA

W3-0Hellas VeronaFeb 20SA

W2-1UdineseFeb 15SA

L0-5InterFeb 8SA

Squad & Injuries

Fiorentina

12 out

Attackers2/8

×#20

Midfielders9

Defenders8/12

×#21

×#65

×#5

×#29

×#21

×#65

×#5

×#29

Goalkeeper5

#21 R. Gosens — Injury

#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury

T. Lamptey — Knee Injury

#65 F. Parisi — Inactive

#5 M. Pongracic — Yellow Cards

#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury

#21 R. Gosens — Injury

#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury

T. Lamptey — Knee Injury

#65 F. Parisi — Inactive

#5 M. Pongracic — Yellow Cards

#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury

Sassuolo

12 out

Attackers2/7

×#10

Midfielders4/9

×#11

×#50

×#11

×#50

Defenders4/11

×#5

×#19

×#5

×#19

Goalkeeper5

#10 D. Berardi — Red Card

#11 D. Boloca — Muscle Injury

#5 F. Cande — Knee Injury

E. Pieragnolo — Knee Injury

#50 D. Bakola — Injury

#19 F. Romagna — Knee Injury

#10 D. Berardi — Red Card

#11 D. Boloca — Muscle Injury

#5 F. Cande — Knee Injury

E. Pieragnolo — Knee Injury

#50 D. Bakola — Injury

#19 F. Romagna — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Sassuolo to score

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Over 4.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Fiorentina

Sassuolo

Squad & Injuries

Fiorentina

Sassuolo