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Fiorentina - Sassuolo
🇮🇹 Serie AFinished
Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 10:30
Finished Snapshot
FT0-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
4W · 6L · 0P
Edges
0W · 5L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
49%-51%
Shots
22-11
Shots on Target
5-1
Corners
7-4
Quick Take
**TLDR:** Fiorentina hold home advantage and relegation urgency, but are crippled by defensive injuries (four first-choice defenders out) and Conference League burnout—while Sassuolo's manager Grosso is distracted by his imminent Fiorentina job negotiations.
Cards Over/UnderOver 3.572%+9.5pp
Clean Sheet HomeNo70%+11.2pp
Cards Over/UnderOver 4.568%+22.5pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:Bookmaker-implied probability (69.9% @ 1.43) significantly exceeds predictor estimate (62%). While caution in opening 45 mins is supported by low first-half averages (Fiorentina 0.9 combined FH, Sassuolo 1.5 combined FH), the vig is unfavorable for Under bettors. The odds offer no edge and overprice defensive solidity.
Double Chance Fiorentina or Draw @ 1.25:Market overprices 1X at 80% implied vs 72% model estimate; suggests away win undervalued, but Sassuolo's 31% away win rate and Fiorentina's strong home H2H (5W-3L) make backing away poor value despite the mispricing. High vig on both sides; avoid entire 1X market.
Cards Over/Under @ 5.25 (Over 6.5):Over 6.5 odds of 5.25 imply only 19% probability; historical data shows 6+ card matches are rare (~15-20% frequency). Insufficient edge despite model support for elevated cards.
Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
**Fiorentina vs Sassuolo: Motivation vs. Distraction in a Volatile Rivalry**
Fiorentina enter this fixture at a critical juncture. Sitting just eight points above the Serie A relegation zone with 36 points, they face a must-win scenario that carries genuine urgency. However, their defensive infrastructure has crumbled: they're without Gosens (injury), Pongracic (suspension), Lamptey (knee), and Parisi (inactive)—effectively gutting their entire defensive rotation. Adding salt to the wound, striker Kean is sidelined with a calf injury, limiting attacking options.
Recent Form
Fiorentina
D1-1LecceApr 20SA
W2-1Crystal PalaceApr 16UEF
W1-0LazioApr 13SA
L0-3Crystal PalaceApr 9UEF
W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 4SA
D1-1InterMar 22SA
W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 19UEF
W4-1CremoneseMar 16SA
W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 12UEF
D0-0ParmaMar 8SA
Sassuolo
W2-1ComoApr 17SA
L1-2GenoaApr 12SA
W2-1CagliariApr 4SA
D1-1JuventusMar 21SA
L0-1BolognaMar 15SA
L1-2LazioMar 9SA
W2-1AtalantaMar 1SA
W3-0Hellas VeronaFeb 20SA
W2-1UdineseFeb 15SA
L0-5InterFeb 8SA
League Table
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 38-45 | 36 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 41-44 | 45 |
9pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
3W · 0D · 2WL3-1SassuolovFiorentinaDec 6, 2025SA
W5-1FiorentinavSassuoloApr 28, 2024SA
L1-0SassuolovFiorentinaJan 6, 2024SA
W1-3SassuolovFiorentinaJun 2, 2023SA
W2-1FiorentinavSassuoloJan 7, 2023SA
3.6 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Fiorentina
12 out#21 R. Gosens — Injury
#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury
T. Lamptey — Knee Injury
#65 F. Parisi — Inactive
#5 M. Pongracic — Yellow Cards
#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury
#21 R. Gosens — Injury
#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury
T. Lamptey — Knee Injury
#65 F. Parisi — Inactive
#5 M. Pongracic — Yellow Cards
#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury
Sassuolo
12 out#10 D. Berardi — Red Card
#11 D. Boloca — Muscle Injury
#5 F. Cande — Knee Injury
E. Pieragnolo — Knee Injury
#50 D. Bakola — Injury
#19 F. Romagna — Knee Injury
#10 D. Berardi — Red Card
#11 D. Boloca — Muscle Injury
#5 F. Cande — Knee Injury
E. Pieragnolo — Knee Injury
#50 D. Bakola — Injury
#19 F. Romagna — Knee Injury