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Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg
🇩🇪 BundesligaFinished
Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 15:30
Finished Snapshot
FT4-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
3-0
Predictions
8W · 3L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
61%-39%
Shots
17-7
Shots on Target
5-4
Corners
5-0
Quick Take
Dortmund's 2-point CL race gap and dominant home record support a win (62% model), but back-to-back losses, four key injuries (Adeyemi, Süle, Can, Nmecha), and a 50% slow-start rate weaken conviction below market pricing—only clear edge is Cards Over 3.5 @ 1.91 (58% vs 52% implie...
Cards Over/UnderOver 3.558%+5.6pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Implied: 52.4% -> Our estimate: 58% -> Edge: +5.6pts
- •Dortmund avg: 2.8 yellows/match (last 10)
- •Freiburg avg: 2.0 yellows/match (last 10)
- •Combined average: 4.8 yellows—exceeds 3.5 line by 1.3 cards
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Corners Over/Under @ 1.50:Over 8.5 @ 1.50 implies 66.7% probability; predictor's 52% estimate lacks conviction (14.7pt gap). Market has already priced in Dortmund dominance. Avoid overpriced selection.
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 @ 1.50:HIGH confidence prediction (68%) offers only marginal edge (+1.3pts) at modest odds. Risk-reward insufficient for play despite strong thesis.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 1.5 @ 1.62:Market has repriced away from MEDIUM confidence thesis (55% → 61.7% implied). Dortmund's slow starts supported the original prediction, but current odds reject it.
Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
**Dortmund's Desperation Meets Freiburg's Momentum in High-Stakes Showdown**
Borussia Dortmund enter this fixture in a precarious position: sitting 2nd on 64 points with RB Leipzig lurking just two points behind, a loss here could drop them out of direct Champions League qualification. The pressure is compounded by back-to-back league defeats (0-1 vs Leverkusen, 1-2 vs Hoffenheim), yet Dortmund's underlying home record remains formidable at 11W-2D-2L with a commanding +19 goal differential at Signal Iduna Park.
Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund
L1-21899 HoffenheimApr 18BL
L0-1Bayer LeverkusenApr 11BL
W2-0VfB StuttgartApr 4BL
W3-2Hamburger SVMar 21BL
W2-0FC AugsburgMar 14BL
W2-11. FC KölnMar 7BL
L2-3Bayern MünchenFeb 28BL
L1-4AtalantaFeb 25UEF
D2-2RB LeipzigFeb 21BL
W2-0AtalantaFeb 17UEF
Freiburg
W2-11. FC HeidenheimApr 19BL
W3-1Celta VigoApr 16UEF
W1-0FSV Mainz 05Apr 12BL
W3-0Celta VigoApr 9UEF
L2-3Bayern MünchenApr 4BL
W2-1FC St. PauliMar 22BL
W5-1GenkMar 19UEF
L0-1Union BerlinMar 15BL
L0-1GenkMar 12UEF
D3-3Bayer LeverkusenMar 7BL
League Table
Bundesliga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund Champions League | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 61-31 | 64 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 44-48 | 43 |
21pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
4W · 1D · 0WD1-1SC FreiburgvBorussia DortmundDec 14, 2025BL
W1-4SC FreiburgvBorussia DortmundApr 5, 2025BL
W4-0Borussia DortmundvSC FreiburgNov 23, 2024BL
W3-0Borussia DortmundvSC FreiburgFeb 9, 2024BL
W2-4SC FreiburgvBorussia DortmundSep 16, 2023BL
Borussia Dortmund unbeaten in 5 meetingsBorussia Dortmund: 2 clean sheets4 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Borussia Dortmund
8 out#27 K. Adeyemi — Muscle Injury
#23 E. Can — Knee Injury
#8 F. Nmecha — Knee Injury
#25 N. Sule — Injury
#27 K. Adeyemi — Muscle Injury
#23 E. Can — Knee Injury
#8 F. Nmecha — Knee Injury
#25 N. Sule — Injury
Freiburg
4 out#33 J. Makengo — Muscle Injury
#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury
#33 J. Makengo — Muscle Injury
#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury